经常购买模型及其参数的极大似然估计

在分析巴斯模型和重复购买的产品生命周期模型等的基础上，提出经常购买模型，详细讨论该模型的参数的极大似然估计法，并采用实例检验模型及参数估计方法，分析模型的参数估计结果，在此基础上使用模型做产品销量预测，表明模型的参数估计方法及预测方法的有效性。     

大豆害虫的研究概况

根据近年来国内外对大豆害虫的研究现状，从大豆害虫种类、主要害虫的生物学及生态学特征、预测预报、种群结构变化及综合防治5个方面，对大豆害虫的研究概况进行综述，并对未来的发展趋势加以展望。     

杨小舟蛾在上海地区的发生规律及其预测预报

对杨小舟蛾在上海的生活史和发生规律进行了研究。结果表明:杨小舟蛾在上海1年发生5代,个别有6代现象,世代重叠严重。杨小舟蛾的发生与初始虫量、日平均温度、降水量、日平均湿度呈极显著正相关。当日平均气温15℃以上时,杨小舟蛾开始出现;日平均温度在25~30℃时,杨小舟蛾数量明显增加;当湿度为65%~85%的时候,该虫发生集中,在日相对平均湿度为80%时,成虫的数量急剧增加;在日平均降雨量为50~150 mm时,虫口数量比较集中。建立杨小舟蛾短期测报模型为:Y=-101.909-0.091x1 0.155x2 0.338x3 0.659x4 0.539x5。     

数据挖掘与人工智能技术

数据挖掘是人工智能中的一个重要分支。对人工智能的发展及其最基本的技术：知识表示、知识推理、搜索，以及数据挖掘进行了详细介绍。通过实例给出了数据挖掘的定义，最后论述了数据挖掘与人工智能的联系，并结合国内外在该领域的研究成果指出了其广阔的发展前景。     

The effects of the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing on the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks

The Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)is configured for the region of(15°–41°N,105°–135°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM(Key Lab.Marine ScienceNumerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration)wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast system.Three numerical experiments are implemented to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature(SST)and the nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing(Bv)on the track forecast of all 33 tropical cyclones(TC)in the model domain area during 2008 and 2011.The first experiment employs NCEP FNL(NCEP final analysis)SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of WRF.The second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,respectively.The forecasted track results are compared with Japan Meteorological Agency’s best track data.For 24-h forecast,the averaged TC position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9%compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced by only2%compared to the Control experiment.For the 48-h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced by 10%and6%with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,respectively.These results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting TC track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of TC track.Comparatively,Bv can improve more on the track of stronger TC.     

昆明地区臭氧层时空变化及其与高空温压场的相关分析

本文利用昆明大气臭氧监测站在1980～1987年期间所获得的臭氧总量逐日资料以及月平均观测资料,采用波谱分析和相关分析等统计方法,较为详细地研究了中国昆明地区大气臭氧层的时空变化规律:它的多年平均状态,长期变化趋势,以及在多种时间尺度下的变化周期,此外,本文还就这些变化与太阳黑子活动,热带平流层的大气环流运动及高空温压场结构之间的关系进行了初步的探讨。     

福建省马尾松毛虫灾区区划及其应用

根据区划理论，应用现代数学方法和计算方法，将福建省马尾松毛虫灾区分为3个区和3个危险程度等级。并按照不同的危险程度等级区域，分别建立了发生面积预测预报模型。经检验。该模型具有较高的精度，可以推广应用。     

长期预报的相空间模回归法

考虑到因确定性系统的外在随机因素和内在随机性所造成的长期预报的不准确性,我们将有关的浑沌理论和数理统计理论结合起来,提出了d维相空间模回归预报法。经调试后,该模式的距平符号报准率一般不低于66％,而相对误差一般不大于10％。     

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts

The judgemental revision of sales forecasts is an issue which is receiving increasing attention in the forecasting literature. This paper compares the performance of forecasts after revision by managers with that of the forecasts which were accepted by them without revision. The data set consists of sales forecasting data from an industrial company, spanning six quarterly periods and relating to some 900 individual products. The findings show that, in general, the improvements made by managers bring the forecast errors of revised forecasts more into line with non-revised forecasts, but the change is often marginal, and the best result is equivalence between revised and non-revised forecasts.     

浅议企业财务风险及其防范

市场经济环境下,企业各项经济活动每时每刻都面临着各种财务风险的考验。本文在对企业财务风险分类的基础上,论述了财务风险的特征,分析了财务风险产生的原因,提出了相应的防范策略。