资本市场发展与经济增长均衡关系协整检验

在总结国内外相关成果的基础上,分析了股票市场促进经济增长的作用机制,运用1994年到2005年的季度数据进行分段检验,实证研究了股票市场发展与中国经济增长的关系,得出了出人意料的结论.     

中国技术市场规模扩张原因的实证检验

采用格兰杰因果分析法，依据需求拉动和技术推动理论，对中国技术交易规模扩张的原因进行了实证检验．结果表明：中国技术市场规模扩张的类型属于需求拉动的规模扩张，而不属于技术推动的规模扩张．     

股市价格指数成交量的单位根及因果关系检验

对上海证券指数收市价及成交量作了ADF检验，发现指数收市价存在有单位根，价格服从随机行走模型，成交量趋势平稳，市场是有效的．用葛兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验发现指数收市价增量与成交量增量互为因果关系，没有谁变化在先谁变化在后的问题。     

LAND SUPPLY AND HOUSING PRICE:THE CASE IN HONG KONG

In this study we examine the relationship between land supply and housing price, percentage of land premium in the total government revenue and housing price, with reference to Hong Kong from 1981 to 1994. To do this we employ the Granger causality method to test the underlying hypothesis whether Hong Kong Government adopt high land-price policy. We use the first difference of data to ensure the stationarity in time series with the help of augmented Dick-Fuller unit root test. The results of the paper suggest no strong evidence to support the view that the land control of the government has caused soaringly rising housing prices. The findings also apparently implicate that the government has the revenue-maximizing behavior which is consistent with efficient allocation of resources.     

Response of downstream sediment to water resource development in mainstream of the Lancang River

The impact of hydropower cascades of the Lancang River on downstream sedimentation has become one of the key problems in the research of the transboundary water resource development and its possible environmental effects. In this paper, the newest sediment data series spanning 17 years （1987-2003） at Yunjinghong hydrometric station and Chiang Saen hydrometric station, in northern Thailand, are analyzed to reveal these effects. Monthly mean sediment concentration data of the two stations are compared in-phase and yearly series are analyzed by the method of correlation and regression analysis and causality test. The analysis result shows that, though both of them are located at lower reaches of Manwan and Dachaoshan hydropower stations which are already constructed and in use, the sediment responses of the two stations are different under the regulation of the hydropower stations Annual series at Yunjinghong station are positively correlated but do not match well with those at Chiang Saen station. In addition, the results of Granger causality test on the time series also suggest that the series of maximum monthly mean sediment concentration of the Yunjinghong station each year may give cause for the ones of Chiang Saen station, while the series of minimum monthly mean sediment concentration each year and annual mean sediment concentration of Yunjinghong do not evidently give cause for the ones of the other station. Undoubtedly, this discovery will provide new evidences to assess the impacts of cascades construction in mainstream of the Lancang River on the variation of downstream sediment and its transboundary effects.     

我国股票市场财富效应的实证分析

该文应用格兰杰因果关系检验和协整分析方法，对我国股票市场的财富效应作了实证分析，指出我国股票市场不具有财富效应而仅具有替代效应．     

How human and nature shake hands: The role of no-conspiracy in physical theories

No-conspiracy is the requirement that measurement settings should be probabilistically independent of the elements of reality responsible for the measurement outcomes. In this paper we investigate what role no-conspiracy generally plays in a physical theory; how it influences the semantical role of the event types of the theory; and how it relates to such other concepts as separability, compatibility, causality, locality and contextuality.     

“中层性质”的因果力与稳健性论证

"中层性质",例如化学、生物学、生态学等特殊科学关涉的物的性质,是否具有因果力,向来是科学哲学中还原主义与反还原主义争论的焦点问题。在为中层性质拥有自发的、不可还原的因果力辩护的论证当中,基于干预主义因果理论的稳健性论证,相较于传统论证具有一定的优势:中层性质的因果力来自于中层的因果共变的稳健性,因而独立于底层,进而能够回应因果排他问题。但进一步分析稳健性论证所提供的案例表明,事实上,稳健性所依赖的中层性质对底层性质的反馈性约束作用才是中层性质具有因果力的关键理由,然而该反馈性约束作用不普遍适用于所有的中层性质;换言之,并非所有中层性质都具有独特的因果力。     

Causes as proximate events: Thomas Brown and the Positivist interpretation of Hume on causality

A neglected episode in the intellectual history of the Scottish Enlightenment, Thomas Brown’s philosophy has been recently reassessed and reconnected with the emergence of the Positivist interpretation of David Hume. In fact, aiming to defend Hume’s philosophy from the common charges of atheism and scepticism, Brown popularised an interpretation of Humean texts which was later to become the standard view on Hume. In this essay, I aim to identify Brown’s historical sources and connect his reading of Hume with the medical discussion on causality.     

我国建筑业发展与其能源消费关系的协整分析

采用我国1981—2007年间数据,运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验分析了我国建筑业产值和能耗之间的关系.结论表明:建筑能源的消耗可以支撑起建筑业的发展,但建筑业的发展并非必然依靠能源的大量消耗,从而为建筑业寻找新的经济增长点及绿色节能建筑的开发应用提供理论依据.