灰色预测在安全生产中的应用

采用灰色系统理论中的ＧＭ（１，１）模型对矿井的百万吨死亡率进行了预测，并通过残差修正提高了预测的精度。结果表明，该法具有较高的准确性。     

Microcalorimetric study of the effect of porphyrin-cholesterol esters on cancer cells HL-60

By using an LKB-2277 Bioactivity Monitor, the effect of porphyrin-cholesterol esters on cancer cells HL-60 were examined at 25°C. There is a difference in the shape of the thermogenesis curve samong different kinds of porphyrin-cholesterol esters, and the death rate of HL-60 cells is also different. The results show that porphyrin-chsterol esters can powerfully inhibit their metabolism, the inhibitory sequence is II>I>III, but the inhibitory way of each ester is different. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Liu Yi: born in Nov. 1970, Ph. D. graduate student     

南方鲇皮肤,唇瓣和须结构的研究

应用扫描电镜和组织学方法研究南方鲇皮肤、唇瓣和须的结构．结果表明，体表不同部位皮肤的厚薄不一，但基本结构相似．唇瓣的前、后口腔面在覆盖物、表面凹陷、味蕾分布、腺细胞组成上有差异．须侧扁，由表皮、真皮、软骨、血管和神经组成．皮肤、唇瓣和须的分泌细胞主要有杯状细胞、棒状细胞、颗粒细胞和浆液细胞，以棒状细胞尤为丰富．味蕾和分泌细胞的大小、形态、分布频率、存在部位不同．皮肤上还具丰富的侧线孔、小窝器官、Ｍｅｒｋｅｌｓ感觉器官等．探讨了皮肤、唇瓣和须的结构与功能关系     

重金属镉对花背蟾蜍蝌蚪生长发育的影响

研究了镉质量浓度在0.0015,0.0300和0.1500mg/L时对花背蟾蜍(Bufo raddei)蝌蚪生长发育的影响。结果表明:不同质量浓度镉能缩短花背蟾蜍蝌蚪50％出膜时间,但对蝌蚪最终孵化率没有影响;镉能影响蝌蚪的生存率,对蝌蚪的生长发育具有明显的抑制作用(P<0.01),但组间差异均不显著(P>0.05);同时各质量浓度水平均导致蝌蚪头部泡状膨大、‘S’型尾和体形奇小(为正常体长的0.50～0.67)等,致畸率0.1500 mg/L质量浓度水平最高(2.25％),0.0300 mg/L水平次之(2.00％),0.0015 mg/L水平最低(0.50％)。     

A Simple Linear Regression Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Rates

Observing that a sequence of negative logarithms of 1‐year survival probabilities displays a linear relationship with the sequence of corresponding terms with a time lag of a certain number of years, we propose a simple linear regression to model and forecast mortality rates. Our model assuming the linearity between two mortality sequences with a time lag each other does not need to formulate the time trends of mortality rates across ages for mortality prediction. Moreover, the parameters of our model for a given age depend on the mortality rates for that age only. Therefore, whether the span of the study ages with the age included is widened or shortened will not affect the results of mortality fitting and forecasting for that age. In the empirical testing, the regression results using the mortality data for the UK, USA and Japan show a satisfactory goodness of fit, which convinces us of the appropriateness of the linear assumption. Empirical illustrations further show that our model's performances of fitting and forecasting mortality rates are quite satisfactory compared with the existing well‐known mortality models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ants feeding on anal exudate from tortricid larvae: a new type of trophobiosis

A new type of trophobiosis between tortricid larvae of a hitherto unknown genus and species, and various ant species of the subfamilies Formicinae, Dolichoderinae and Myrmicinae, was found in Malaysia. The larvae live in silken shelters fixed to the leaves of bamboo. In response to mechanical stimuli from the ants, they discharge from the anus a liquid containing sugar and amino acids and/or protein. The tortricid is described as Semutophila saccharopa gen. nov., sp. nov.; a second species, S. susurra sp. nov., is described from New Guinea.     

死亡率变化对我国寿险产品纯保费影响的定量研究

寿险产品定价是人寿产品开发的核心,其目的在于确定出适当的价格.而寿险产品定价的基础之一就是经验生命表,由于新经验生命表中死亡率明显下降,会对寿险产品保费产生一定的影响.鉴于新旧生命表的区别,利用寿险精算理论,以终身寿险、定期寿险、生存年金、两全保险等基本寿险产品为例,分析了新生命表下它们各自保费的具体变化,最后通过定量分析给出一些结论.     

Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Avian mortality due to power lines in the Canary Islands with special reference to the steppe-land birds

Biodiversity is being lost worldwide at an increased rate particularly as the result of human activities and infrastructure. Avian mortality through collision with power lines has been an important topic in animal ecology research, but studies of this kind have never been undertaken in the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago located near the northwest African coast that has important seabird colonies, several endemic bird species and endemic races of steppe-land birds of conservation concern. During two contrasting periods in 2008 (breeding vs post-breeding), a total of 366 km of power lines were surveyed on this archipelago covering the entire distributional range of the most important steppe-land bird species (i.e. 232 km, Fuerteventura; 134 km, Lanzarote). In all, 310 carcasses representing 23 families and 26 species were detected. We estimated with distance Sampling that 25.5% and 6.3% of individuals of the total population of Houbara bustards, Chlamydotis undulata fuertaventurae, and Eurasian stone curlews, Burhinus oedicnemus insularum, respectively, were killed in a year. We encourage the Canary Islands authorities (Consejería de Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Canarias) to try to minimize the Houbara bustard collision rate, particularly in the northern plains of Lanzarote (i.e. Jables de Famara), as a means to reduce mortality of this emblematic species in this insular environment.