The detection of structural deformation errors in attitude determination

In the determination of the attitude parameters from a multi-antenna GPS array, one of the major assumptions is that the body frame is rigid at all times. If this assumption is not true then the derived attitude parameters will be in error. It is well known that in airborne platforms the wings often experience some displacement during flight, especially during periods of initializing maneouvres, such as taking off, landing,and banking. Often it is at these points in time that it is most critical to have the most precise attitude parameters.There are a number of techniques available for the detection of modeling errors.The CUSUM algorithm has successfully been implemented in the past to detect small persistent changes. In this paper the authors investigate different methods of generating the residuals, to be tested by the CUSUM algorithm, in an effort to determine which technique is best suited for the detection of structural deformation of an airborne platform. The methods investigated include monitoring the mean of the residuals generated from the difference between the known body frame coordinates, and those calculated from the derived attitude parameters. The generated residuals are then passed to a CUSUM algorithm to detect any small persistent changes. An alternative method involves transforming the generated residuals into the frequency domain through the use of the Fast Fourier Transform. The CUSUM algorithm is then used to detect any frequency changes. The final technique investigated involves transforming the generated residuals using the Haar wavelet. The wavelet coefficients are then monitored by the CUSUM algorithm in order to detect any significant change to the rigidity of the body frame.Detecting structural deformation, and quantifying the degree of deformation, during flight will ensure that these effects can be removed from the system, thus ensuring the most precise and reliable attitude parameter solutions. This paper, through a series ofsimulations, will assess the effectiveness of the above mentioned techniques for detecting structural deformation effects on a GPS multi-antenna array. These principles are then tested with experimental data.     

面向质量不合格率的CUSUM控制图参数优化设计

提出以质量不合格率这一质量指标为目的,优化CUSUM控制图的参数,建立了优化设计理论模型,提出了优化分析的流程,进行了实例分析和验证.给出了常规需要范围的质量不合格率的简单参数推荐表格.     

Application of intervention analysis to a road fatality series in ontario

Effect of an intervention on a road fatality time series is studied using (i) the usual intervention analysis of Box and Tiao (1975), and (ii) CUSUM charts for the one-step-ahead forecast errors. It is shown that the seat belt and speed limit legislations of the Ontario Government had some impact in bringing down the road toll level.     

基于小波变换和CUSUM算法的PDoS攻击检测方法

Pulsing denial-of-service(PDoS)攻击是一种新型的DoS攻击,它主要利用TCP超时重传机制的弱点,使用周期性的短脉冲向受害者发起攻击,由于平均攻击速率较低,传统的检测机制对其无法检测。笔者对这种攻击采用一种基于Mallat小波变换和CUSUM算法的两步检测法。首先基于Mallat小波变换和小波系数提取出攻击的特征,然后用CUSUM算法可将小偏移量进行累加,提高检测灵敏度,最后针对CUSUM算法的缺陷,提出了改进的CUSUM算法来降低误报率。两步检测法可以准确高效地检测出PDoS攻击。     

自适应参数的网络异常流量检测方法

分布式拒绝服务(DDoS)攻击对互联网的稳定性和安全性构成了严重的威胁.对网络流量进行异常检测,发现异常后再对数据包进行分析,实施相应措施,有利于降低系统开销.该文给出了网络流量均值和阈值能够根据网络环境变化的自适应调整算法.分析了参数的设置对误报警、动态调整报警阈值等的影响.实验结果表明设计的系统是有效和正确的,可以在提高异常流量检测准确性的同时降低运行开销,可以直接应用于检测SYN洪水攻击等.     

Lévy稳定过程均值变点监测在CUSUM和EWMA控制图中的比较

给出了CUSUM和EWMA控制图在Lévy稳定过程均值变点监测的ARL近似估计,采用数字模拟的方法对CUSUM和EWMA控制图监测Lévy稳定过程均值变点的效果进行比较．     

Exponential smoothing: The state of the art

This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state-of-the-art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt-Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model-building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two-stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt-Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.     

基于多维信息熵值的DDoS攻击检测方法

针对互联网中日益严重的分布式拒绝服务攻击行为,提出了一种基于多维信息熵值的DDoS攻击检测方法.首先根据DDoS攻击的特点,采用条件熵及相异熵构建具有良好区分度的多维攻击检测向量,在此基础上采用滑动窗口的多维无参数CUSUM算法放大正常流量与攻击流量的差异来实现DDoS攻击的检测.通过实际网络攻击流量及合成攻击流量测试表明:文中提出的算法能够检测到LLS_ DDoS数据集及合成数据集中的全部攻击,算法对于DDoS攻击的响应速度快,能够应用于高速骨干网络中.     

平稳自相关过程的残差累积和控制图

常规控制图的使用都是基于过程中得到的观测值是彼此独立的,但实际中过程出现自相关现象极为普遍。为了讨论对平稳自相关过程中出现的较小均值波动进行监控的一种方法,采用经典的自回归模型对平稳的自相关过程进行拟合,通过计算残差的方法消除过程中的自相关性,在此基础上建立了残差CUSUM控制图,并通过一个简单的例子进行说明。     

基于CUSUM算法的LDoS攻击检测方法

低速率拒绝服务LDoS攻击具有流量发送速率低、隐蔽性强、具有突发性以及造成危害大的特点,融入正常流量中难以被传统的DoS攻击检测机制发现.针对该攻击方式突发性特点,分析路由器受到LDoS攻击时流量特征的统计异常,将路由器入口流量的均值与正常阈值相比较,提出了基于累积和CUSUM算法的检测方法.该方法基于突变假设检验,对到达流量分析变点前后流量的累积和特征,通过将分析得到的累积和与设定的门限值比较来实现LDoS攻击的检测.实验通过调整算法参数来优化检测性能,通过基于NS-2搭建的仿真实验平台表明,该方法具有较好的检测性能.