完善我国孤儿抚养体系的思考

目前我国对孤儿主要采取集中抚养与分散抚养相结合的方式,面对庞大的孤儿群体,我国孤儿抚养在信息排查、立法与管理、收养制度等方面尚存在亟待改进的问题,因此,完善孤儿抚养体系是我国发展儿童福利事业的必然要求.     

行为建模角度信息技术采纳研究综述

行为建模角度的信息技术采纳研究是管理信息系统领域的重要分支。对1989年至2006年上半年管理信息系统领域七本国际顶尖期刊中检索出的120篇相关文献并进行了归纳和分析,提出了关于这一领域研究发展历程和新兴发展方向的一些观点,以期帮助国内学者更全面的了解国际该领域研究的现状和趋势。     

Adoption of precision agriculture technologies in India and in some developing countries: Scope, present status and strategies

Rapid socio-economic changes in some developing countries, including India, are creating new scopes for application of precision agriculture (PA). The implications of dramatic shifts for economic development, urbanization and energy consumption in some developing countries are immense. High-tech nature of traditional PA technologies developed in advanced countries created a real challenge for engineers to search suitable PA technologies for developing countries. It is expected that application of balanced soft and hard PA technologies based on the need of specific socio-economic condition of a country will make PA suitable for developing countries also.‘Soft’ PA depends mainly on visual observation of crop and soil and management decision based on experience and intuition, rather than on statistical and scientific analysis. ‘Hard’ PA utilizes all modern technologies such as GPS, RS, and VRT. Three components, namely,‘single PA technology’, ‘PA technology package’ (for the user to select one or combination) and ‘integrated PA technology’, have been identified as a part of adoption strategies of PA in the developing countries. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to find out the scope,the present status and the strategies for adoption of PA in India and in some developing countries. Application of PA in cash crop, plantation crop, etc. has been discussed. Application of some medium and low-tech PA tools such as chlorophyll meter and leaf colour chart in small farms has been included. This exhaustive review of the present status of PA in India and in some developing countries is expected to help to find out the adoption trend and direction of future research. Detailed strategy for the adoption of PA in India has also been proposed.     

马尔科夫方法修正的灰色模型在我国农村居民人均旅游消费预测中的应用

随着农村经济的发展,日益富裕起来的农村居民已成为国内旅游的一支旅游大军,加强对我国农村居民人均旅游消费的研究,对促进旅游业的发展及促进经济增长具有重要的意义.采用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对1998年至2009年的消费值进行拟合,并动态模拟2009年我国农村居民人均旅游消费变化态势,再运用马尔科夫状态转移矩阵对灰色GM...     

基于复杂网络的网络市场新产品扩散:采用网络和初始条件的作用

运用复杂网络方法研究网络效应新产品扩散中采用网络结构和初始条件对扩散模式的作用.所有潜在采用主体位于一个复杂网络上,每个主体综合自己对新产品的偏好和邻居的决策决定是采用新产品还是继续等待,所有主体的决策共同决定新产品扩散模式.结果表明,网络结构的作用依赖于主体决策机制：对于创新市场,网络异质性阻碍了新产品扩散;对于替代市场,网络结构对扩散模式没有影响.初始采用比例增大导致稳态扩散比例增加,但边际作用单调下降.研究结果对管理采用网络和开发有效的新产品扩散战略有重要意义.     

技术推广主体多元化与农户采用新技术研究——基于陕、甘、宁的调查

基于对陕甘宁3省区的农户调查资料,选取3种不同种类的技术,分析4种不同技术推广主体的特征及其对农户采用新技术的影响。结果表明,目前在西北地区农技部门仍是农业技术推广的最重要主体,企业、科研、农民合作型技术推广模式起辅助性作用,且各种技术服务不能满足农户需求。农技部门和科研单位在推广公益性强和复杂技术上具有优势,企业和合作组织在推广商业性和经济收益高的技术上具有优势。农户从认知技术到获取技术再到采用技术的过程中对组织化程度要求越来越高。其中,农技部门和科研单位的在前两个阶段作用较大;合作社和企业对农户的促进作用在技术采用阶段得以显现。