灰色参数线性规划解法论

叙述了灰色参数线性规划的基本思想和模型，总结了近十多年来求解的主要研究成果，并对该领域的进一步研究提出了一些想法和展望．     

开关型磁阻电动机的振动分析

针对SR电动机存在的振动和噪声问题,分别应用实验模态分析法和计算模态分析法研究了SR电动机的动力特性,得到了SR电动机定子的固有频率和主振型,计算值与实验测量值吻合较好,所得数据可为制定抑制SR电动机的振动和噪声方案提供参考.     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用VBA实现Auto CAD2002参数化三维造型设计

对参数化绘图的基本原理进行分析,介绍AutoCAD2002环境下运用VBA(VisualBa sicApplication)编程实现参数绘图的方法,实现了对渐开线圆柱齿轮三维造型设计的参数化。     

大学非英语专业高年级开设专业英语课程的探讨

中国的外语教学应在大学非英语专业高年级阶段开设专业英语课程,理由如下:1、符合语言教学的目标;2、符合“以内容为中心”的语言教学理论;3、符合外语学习中的“习得”理论;4、等同于汉语和英语专业的课程设置。本文同时指出了这一做法的可行性和困难,并提出了解决这些困难的粗浅办法。     

一阶非线性非完整系统的改进的Routh方程

导出了一阶非线性非完整系统的改进的Ｒｏｕｔｈ方程并举例说明其应用，从而提供了建立非完整系统的运动微分方程的一种新方法。该方程的特点在于其第一组方程中只包含系统的独立的广义动量，而第二组方程中不包含任何广义动量。同时，本文结果也是对黄昭度先生的“改进的Ｒｏｕｔｈ方程”一文中的某些错误的修正。     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

波纹管的特征值分析

基于Novozhilov薄壳理论 ,用有限元法建立了旋转波纹管非轴对称自由振动的广义特征值方程并进行了求解。选取两结点非协调曲边旋转壳单元作为波纹管的离散单元 ,并将所有相关变量沿其环向进行了Fourier展开。该方法不仅给出了子午线曲率连续变化的U型波纹管任意环向谐波所对应的特征值 ,而且对子午线曲率有突变的C型波纹管旋转壳也能很好地适应。算例结果表明 ,波纹管不存在一个最低固有频率对应的固定环向波数 ,但其轴对称振型和低阶非轴对称振型在动态分析中占绝对优势 ,高阶振型的作用并不明显。     

Unit roots versus other types of time heterogeneity,parameter time dependence and superexogeneity

This paper stresses the restrictive nature of the standard unit root/cointegration assumptions and examines a more general type of time heterogeneity, which might characterize a number of economic variables, and which results in parameter time dependence and misleading statistical inference. We show that in such cases ‘operational’ models cannot be obtained, and the estimation of time‐varying parameter models becomes necessary. For instance, economic processes subject to endemic change can only be adequately modelled in a state space form. This is a very important point, because unstable models will break down when used for forecasting purposes. We also discuss a new test for the null of cointegration developed by Quintos and Phillips (1993), which is based on parameter constancy in cointegrating regressions. Finally, we point out that, if it is possible to condition on a subset of superexogenous variables, parameter instability can be handled by estimating a restricted system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.