Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

通货紧缩时期扩张性货币政策的局限性

就经济理论而言,通货紧缩时期应实行扩张性货币政策。但许多国家和地区的实践表明,通缩时期扩张性货币政策的加速作用小于通货膨胀时期紧缩性货币政策的减速作用,也就是说,扩张性货币政策的效果较弱。导致这种结果的原因是通货紧缩时期扩张性货币政策的局限性,即通货紧缩时期,经济主体的预期和行为,使利率传导渠道失效;商业银行的信贷配给,使货币政策效果进一步弱化;货币供给内生性增强,使央行控制货币供应的能力减弱;价格的粘性,使通缩时期产出的增加乏力。     

外汇储备变动对货币政策的影响

近年来,我国国际收支持续双顺差,导致外汇领导储备持续快速的增长。外汇储备的这种增长,会不会对货币政策的执行产生影响,这引起了国内外学者的广泛讨论。笔者就我国外汇储备增长的原因以及由此对货币政策产生的冲击进行了探讨。     

再生混凝土技术及其应用

研究了再生混凝土集料的来源与性质,通过掺入适量外加剂,解决了用水量大、干缩率高的问题。将再生混凝土性能与普通混凝土进行比较,体现再生混凝土性能优越、强度稳定及经济效益明显的显著特性。进一步提出设计再生高强混凝土的可行性,讨论再生混凝土的适用范围,结论表明,该技术完全可以在实际工程中得到广泛应用。     

正则纯整群带的同余格

利用正则半纯整群带上同余的同余组刻划，分别用图以及生成集和生成关系这两种方法，确定了正则纯整数带的两个重要的同余子格。     

EMV和EUV理论在投资风险决策中的应用

期望货币值(EMV)客观分析几种情况出现的收益或亏损值及可能出现的概率;计算期望值(EUV)进行方案决策,但是它没能体现投资者(决策人)的价值观、偏好、经济承受能力.期望效用值准则是决策者在确定环境下对每个方案的隐含价值或偏好的一种量度,正好补充了期望货币值的不足,两者结合能够取长补短,达到更符合实际的决策方案.     

我国当前通货紧缩的成因及相应的货币政策

分析了我国当前通货紧缩的原因，就相应的货币政策的运用进行了理论研究，并进一步提出了若干应对措施。     

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.     

试论电子货币对货币政策的影响

电子货币的广泛应用和普及,对现有货币金融体系提出了挑战,对中央银行的地位、货币发行、金融控制和货币供给等都将产生直接或间接的影响。货币政策的制定应具有前瞻性,因此,必须深入研究电子货币对货币政策的影响。这是制定电子货币时代货币政策的必然要求。     

欧洲经济货币联盟的经济政策及前景

欧元区集中统一的货币政策与权力分散的财政政策协调性较差；欧元区目前尚不符合最优货币区标准；欧洲经济货币联盟的公约已遭违背；欧洲能否实现政治一体化也不确定。这些因素使得欧洲经济货币联盟的前景不容乐观。