Desargues定理的推广

本文将射影几何著名的Desargues透视三点形定理推广到四面体和三维射影空间的完全n(n≥4)点形(体)中。     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

在课程研究与教学中渗透人文关怀——"陶渊明研究"教学示例

结合具体课程的研究与教学,从内容和方法两方面贴近学生生存与发展的需要,突出学生学习的主体性,重视师生的交流与对话,在学术研究的同时落实人文关怀的教育理念,努力培养大学生高尚的人格、情感、气质和人生信念,构建健康和谐的精神家园.     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unit roots versus other types of time heterogeneity,parameter time dependence and superexogeneity

This paper stresses the restrictive nature of the standard unit root/cointegration assumptions and examines a more general type of time heterogeneity, which might characterize a number of economic variables, and which results in parameter time dependence and misleading statistical inference. We show that in such cases ‘operational’ models cannot be obtained, and the estimation of time‐varying parameter models becomes necessary. For instance, economic processes subject to endemic change can only be adequately modelled in a state space form. This is a very important point, because unstable models will break down when used for forecasting purposes. We also discuss a new test for the null of cointegration developed by Quintos and Phillips (1993), which is based on parameter constancy in cointegrating regressions. Finally, we point out that, if it is possible to condition on a subset of superexogenous variables, parameter instability can be handled by estimating a restricted system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新世纪的人文关怀

20世纪既是人类知识科技突飞猛进的世纪，也是一个战争频仍、族群相互敌视、社会政治动荡不安、生态环境饱受破坏的世纪。展望21世纪，为了使人类尽量免受因战争、仇视、冲突和环境危机带来的不安、焦虑与痛苦，其最重要的策略是赋予人类以人文的基本关怀、其中他人的关怀、民主的关怀、文化的关怀和全人类的关怀应该予以特别的重视。     

持续经营的不确定性与公司违约概率--基于期权定价模型的一种定量判断标准

提出了在我国证券市场使用布莱克-舒尔斯-默顿期权定价理论，利用市场交易信息估计企业破产(或违约)概率的方法，审计人员可将该破产概率作为判断被审计企业持续经营能力的一个定量参考指标，从而对审计人员持续经营审计报告类型的选择提供帮助。     

以人为本,抓好运动员的思想教育工作

从5个方面阐述了运动队以人为本，抓好思想教育工作的认识：一是要关爱运动员：二是要尊重运动员；三是要关注运动员的需要；四是要重视运动员的心理变化；五是要解决运动员的实际问题。