公共图书馆如何吸引读者参与读者活动

近年来,政府加大了对公共图书馆事业的投入力度,公共图书馆不再仅限于传统的图书借还功能,组织举办读者活动已成为图书馆的重点工作. 分析了公共图书馆举办的读者活动引不起读者兴趣的原因,提出了解决这一问题的对策和建议.     

Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Forecasting in long horizons using smoothed direct forecast

This paper constructs a forecast method that obtains long‐horizon forecasts with improved performance through modification of the direct forecast approach. Direct forecasts are more robust to model misspecification compared to iterated forecasts, which makes them preferable in long horizons. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. Our forecast method aims to “smooth out” erratic estimates across horizons while maintaining the robust aspect of direct forecasts through ridge regression, which is a restricted regression on the first differences of regression coefficients. The forecasts are compared to the conventional iterated and direct forecasts in two empirical applications: real oil prices and US macroeconomic series. In both applications, our method shows improvement over direct forecasts.     

基于ESI和InCites的学科发展预测研究--以中国地质大学为例

基于汤姆路透公司的ESI和InCites数据库，分析了中国地质大学各学科的特征，探讨了高被引论文、热门论文、顶尖论文与学科发展的关系，并预测后续最有可能入围ESI世界前1％的学科。     

实时系统开发与PEARL语言

本文讨论了实时系统的特征、开发方法、设计工具、实现手段工具等开发过程中的主要问题,论述了实时系统开发语言PEARL及该语言的对实时系统的主要支持.     

O－芳基－苯基硫代膦酰氯和O－芳基－苯基硫代膦酸异硫氰基酯的研究

合成一些新的有机磷化物，组成为（ＡｒＯ）ＰｈＰ（ｓ）Ｙ（Ｙ＝Ｃｌ、ＮＣＳ）．测定了ｍＰ、ＩＲ、ＨＮＭＲ并进行了元素分析．Ｉａ的除草活性尚好．     

面向MIS的预测支持系统的研究

通过对预测支持系统研究现状的分析,讨论了预测支持系统如何更好的适用于MIS,为其提供预测支持.并提出了更加适应MIS当今和未来发展的预测支持系统构建模式.     

科学创新思维中实在和虚拟范畴的流动和转化

实在思维是指科学认识活动中保持真实性的思维活动;虚拟思维是指在思维过程中的一种设想或虚构活动.它们共同构成了科学创新思维的两极.在它们之间的流动和转化中,科学创新得以实现.     

SW规约下的一些性质

本文进一步分析了SW规约下的SW度结构的一些性质,得到了强可计算实数的两个性质.并且证明了给定可计算可枚举实数,可构造出sw归约下不小于该数的低的可计算可枚举实数.     

基于GM（1，1）模型的某高校招生人数预测

分析了近年来我国高校招生人数的变化趋势，并利用GM（1，1）模型对某高校2008年的招生人数进行了预测．从而为高校招生人数决策提供了依据。