Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Forecasting in long horizons using smoothed direct forecast

This paper constructs a forecast method that obtains long‐horizon forecasts with improved performance through modification of the direct forecast approach. Direct forecasts are more robust to model misspecification compared to iterated forecasts, which makes them preferable in long horizons. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. Our forecast method aims to “smooth out” erratic estimates across horizons while maintaining the robust aspect of direct forecasts through ridge regression, which is a restricted regression on the first differences of regression coefficients. The forecasts are compared to the conventional iterated and direct forecasts in two empirical applications: real oil prices and US macroeconomic series. In both applications, our method shows improvement over direct forecasts.     

基于ESI和InCites的学科发展预测研究--以中国地质大学为例

基于汤姆路透公司的ESI和InCites数据库，分析了中国地质大学各学科的特征，探讨了高被引论文、热门论文、顶尖论文与学科发展的关系，并预测后续最有可能入围ESI世界前1％的学科。     

电路特性的PSpice仿真方法比较

应用PSpice仿真软件的两种仿真方法,分析了串联型直流稳压电源的性能,比较了这两种仿真分析方法各自的优点.电路仿真实验表明,熟练掌握数种电路仿真方法是十分必要的,仿真方法对电路分析具有实际意义和作用.     

1151系列式传感器上毛细管的疲劳寿命对比试验

设计了1151系列电容式传感器上非标准件的疲劳寿命对比试验,对铂-铑合金毛细管和铂-铱合金毛细管试件进行对比试验。采用等强度悬臂梁对试件施力,电阻应变片接收施力反馈信号,并采取多项措施提高试验精度。结果表明,铂-铱合金毛细管可以代替铂-铑合金毛细管。     

面向MIS的预测支持系统的研究

通过对预测支持系统研究现状的分析,讨论了预测支持系统如何更好的适用于MIS,为其提供预测支持.并提出了更加适应MIS当今和未来发展的预测支持系统构建模式.     

股份制企业筹资最佳资金结构的确定

最佳资金结构的确定，关系到股份制企业资金成本的高低和财务风险的大小．如何通过筹资发挥财务杠杆的作用，确定最佳资金结构是股份制企业筹资决策的关键．针对这一问题，比较详细地介绍了每股利润分析法、比较资金成本法在确定最佳资金结构中的运用．     

基于GM（1，1）模型的某高校招生人数预测

分析了近年来我国高校招生人数的变化趋势，并利用GM（1，1）模型对某高校2008年的招生人数进行了预测．从而为高校招生人数决策提供了依据。     

《红字》译本对象征、比喻手法的移植比较

名著《红字》迄今为止已有10多个译本出现,且不同时代有不同译本,说明其复译的必要性和可行性。《红字》中大量运用了象征、比喻手法,不仅对烘托主题、刻画人物起到了举足轻重的作用,而且具有含而不露,耐人寻味的修辞效果。通过对3个译本进行比较,旨在探讨译本在移植原著象征、比喻手法上的成败得失,为后人复译提供借鉴。     

Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.