Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太原市可持续发展评价指标体系的建立

简述了可持续发展的涵义以及可持续发展评价指标体系的理论基础，根据城市可持续发展的内涵和太原市的城市发展战略，精选出41个重要指标组成太原市可持续发展评价指标体系，并最终生成一个由目标层、准则层、领域层及指标层构成的层次体系。     

配方施肥对榉树幼苗生长的影响

以1年生榉树幼苗为试验材料,采用氮、磷、钾3因素5水平正交试验设计,通过测定其苗高、地径和鲜生物量等形态指标的变化情况研究不同配方施肥对1年生榉树幼苗生长状况的影响,并得出最利于榉树幼苗生长的氮、磷、钾肥配比。结果表明:不同的配方施肥均对榉树幼苗的生长产生影响,促进榉树幼苗生长的最优配方为N3P4K3,即每株榉树幼苗氮、磷、钾肥施用量分别为2、4、1 g/株。     

主城区人行交通道路照明质量评价指标

采用客观与主观相结合的实验方法对重庆市主城区的部分人行道照明进行了实测,通过对大量测试信息的处理及分析,证明了半柱面照度应是人行道照明评价的最佳参数,并指出了现行人行道照明标准中评价指标的不足之处.研究中首次将计算机灰阶分离方法用于夜间行人面部特征的分析,从而得出立体感指标的适用范围和应用条件.该研究为人行道照明评价指标的制定提供了实验依据及科学的方法.     

武汉市"十一五"规划战略环境评价实践

以武汉市"十一五"规划战略环境评价为例,探讨了我国城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价的技术路线、指标体系与评价方法.研究表明,对城市空间布局、产业布局、产业结构以及城市交通的环境适宜性进行综合评价是这类规划战略环境评价的重要特征;互动式的评价模式能使环境因素及时、有效地纳入到决策过程中;指标体系是预测评价的基础,指标的选择除考虑科学性、代表性外还应强调可获得性、可量化性及可考核性.     

Forecasting and analyzing economic activity with coincident and leading indexes: The case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, non-farm employment, and the unemployment rate.     

基于统计分析的绩效评价方法研究

对绩效进行评价,指标的层次结构及其权重的确定直接影响评价指标体系的实用性和评价结果的客观性与科学性．为确保分析结果客观、科学,在分析了层次分析法分层和权重确定时存在不足的基础上,提出一种新方法．首先,运用统计分析中的因子分析方法,为指标进行分层归类;其次,根据因子分析中子因子在主因子上的载荷,确定各个子因子在其主因子上的权重值;再次,根据子因子在其主因子上的权重值,并结合各主因子在总目标（一级指标）上的贡献率,确定出各个子因子在总目标上的权重值;最后,通过实例证明了方法的实用性．     

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于熵权-层次分析法和优劣解距离法的飞行员胜任力评价

结合熵权法、层次分析法（AHP）、优劣解距离法（TOPSIS），提出了一种用于评估飞行员胜任力的多准则决策框架。首先，根据国内外飞行员胜任力指标框架研究进展，构建飞行员胜任力评价指标体系。其次，采用熵权法计算飞行员核心胜任力指标权重。随后，由专家使用AHP对飞行员心理胜任力和作风胜任力指标赋权，并建立融合的权重指标体系。最后，根据评价指标权重，采用TOPSIS方法对飞行员胜任力进行排序。通过将提出的方法应用于航线飞行员胜任力评估，验证方法的可行性。     

土壤重金属污染研究现状

目前，越来越多的研究者开始对生物学指标反应土壤重金属污染程度方面进行研究，寻找一套较为敏感的指标体系，使评价者便于对一种土壤是否被污染、污染的程度等作出科学、客观的判断。研究表明，微生物生物量、微生物商、土壤酶活性、代谢商等土壤质量生物学指标对气候、人为活动等外界条件的反应敏感。本文主要阐述了近年诸多学者这方面研究的主要方法和研究成果，并在这些成果的基础上做了进一步展望。