Prediction of decadal variability of sea surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP

A decadal climate prediction was performed by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) within the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences.First,an Incremental Analysis Updates(IAU) scheme was applied to assimilate surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity fields derived from oceanic objective analysis data,for the initialization of the ocean component of the model.Starting from the initialized states,hindcast integrations were performed with the specified historical solar cycle variations,concentrations of greenhouse gasses and sulfate aerosol,following the standard 20C3M scenario used in phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3).Based on the hindcast integrations,we performed forecast integrations under the radiative forcing of the A1B scenario in the CMIP3.Compared with the 20C3M run,the hindcast integrations have a much higher ability to simulate the decadal variability of SST(Sea Surface Temperature) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and mid-latitude northeastern Pacific.This suggests that the ocean initialization is able to enhance the model skill in the regions with large decadal variability.The forecast integrations suggest that the SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific has reached its trough phase,and will gradually increase in the following 10-15 years.Meanwhile,the global mean surface temperature predicted by the forecast integrations increases slower than that projected by the A1B scenario run over 2000-2010,but faster than the latter after that.     

Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios

A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, un- der the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the sub- tropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC de- creases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the north- ern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.     

“Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the “degree of agreement.” Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.     

VOIP及其在IPCC中的应用

在概述VOIP技术发展历程的基础上，详细介绍了VOIP技术的主要内容，并对其在IPCC中的应用作了阐述，最后对VOIP技术的优点和发展趋势作了总结和展望。     

内蒙古能源消费碳足迹研究

为了衡量人类能源活动对大气环境的影响,用IPCC法,结合碳足迹的相关概念,分别估算了2001—2010年内蒙古能源消费的CO2排放量、总碳足迹、制造业能源碳足迹、碳足迹的产值、碳足迹强度和生态压力,并以此为基础,应用STIRPAT模型对能源消费的碳足迹与经济增长的关系进行了研究.结果表明,2001—2010年,内蒙古能源消费的CO2排放量逐年增加,煤炭是主要排放源;能源消费的碳足迹增长迅速,制造业能源消费的碳足迹在总碳足迹中占很大比例,且一直呈上升趋势;能源消费的碳足迹产值有所增加,生态压力增大;在碳足迹的STIRPAT模型拟合结果中没有出现环境库兹涅茨曲线.     

高等院校碳排放核算与碳中和路径探析

高等院校包括大学、学院和科研院所作为重要社会单元，能源资源消耗水平远高于社会平均水平，研究高校碳排放核算及碳中和路径，助力校园率先实现碳中和，可以为国家“双碳”目标的实现提供科技支撑。基于国外高等院校碳排放与碳中和相关研究，指出高等院校碳排放主要包括3个范围。根据温室气体核算体系（Greenhouse Gas Protocol）提出的3个范围碳排放的核算方法和标准，通过梳理国内外高校及相关行业碳排放研究现状，归纳总结碳排放核算方案，并针对性地探讨提出相应的碳中和路径框架。高校碳排放核算和碳中和方案框架的建立不仅能够为国内高校实现碳中和提供路径借鉴，而且可以为各地区、各行业降低碳排放、实现碳中和提供理论依据和方法参考，对于推动高校在碳中和科技创新中所承担的特殊使命具有重要的指导意义。     

基于SIP协议的IPCC平台的研究与实现

优质的客户服务对于企业的发展起到很大的作用,基于IP的呼叫中心(IPCC)平台是企业与客户交流沟通并提供优质客服的廉价平台,能够为企业间接地创造利润与效益,对基于SIP协议的IPCC平台进行研究,提炼IPCC平台的两大核心功能话务控制和话务自动分配(ACD),深入分析SIP协议的会话信令消息格式,研究话务控制单元的控制模式,分析研究话务自动分配调度的几种算法,并实现IPCC平台,从而为企业利用已有的局域网资源搭建廉价的IPCC平台创造了技术上的条件。     

贵阳旱涝气候变化特征及其趋势分析

利用贵阳近500年(1470~2008年)旱涝等级资料,对贵阳旱涝展开气候变化特征及趋势分析。结果表明:近58年,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500年的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50年周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7年周期是次周期。借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳2011~2020年夏季降水处于旱涝交替频发期,且从本世纪20年代初至40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱期。     

IPCC第四次评估报告对我国的影响及对策建议

政府间气候变化专门委员会2007年发布的第四次评估报告认为，全球变暖主要是由于人类活动引起的，发展中国家既是未来温室气体排放增长的主要来源，也是减排潜力最大的对象。该报告增加了我国减排温室气体的压力，也增加了我国与国际社会的合作机遇，为国内的节能减排提供了科学指导，为我国走低碳经济之路提供了契机。     

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.