CPI趋势测定与分析

近期,居民消费价格指数(CPI)呈线性增长态势,形成通胀压力.经过建立数学模型测定,以及定性分析对定量分析结果的修正,可以预见,CPI增幅将会突破5%,且今后一段时期内,CPI仍会处在增幅5%以上的高位波动,通胀压力仍然存在,但CPI的上升空间有限.     

Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

电子锁发展及研制综述

本文给出电子锁的概念,探讨了电子锁的发展简史。系统论述电子锁的一般结构,分类和发展趋向。阐明电子锁研制和开发过程中,同行们普遍遇到的瓶颈问题,介绍了电子锁设计与制造所依据的相关国家标准和部颁标准。     

张家川县牧业生产经济动态的前景预测

从张家川四十六年的畜牧业生产经济数据中,定性地提出了牧业生产的四个阶段,即低速波动段、干扰徘徊段、高速发展段、协调稳定段。并对这几个阶段建立了一系列的动态分析数学模型,借此模型定量地分析和预测了该县牧业生产的状况及前景,并提出了合理的资源利用强度,为今后张家川县牧业生产提供了科学的决策依据。     

马克思主义作为科学哲学在国外的历史与现状

与马克思主义人文主义解读相比,马克思传统的科学性解读在国内的处境及研究与它的应有的地位极不相称。那么作为一种科学哲学的马克思主义在国外的研究处境如何呢?笔者所在的研究团队在国外访学期间,通过对大量文献的收集与整理,发现对马克思主义科学哲学的研究在国外已经形成了如下共识:将实践范畴作为严整的(社会)科学探索;马克思传统中的科学研究与哲学升华的相互依赖;辩证唯物主义本体论及辩证法对于唯物史观的逻辑优先性;严整的(社会)科学探索作为哲学理解的基础性地位等。在此基础上,国外形成了几种代表性的研究领域:对马克思恩格斯经典著作中的科学哲学思想的深入挖掘;马克思主义作为科学哲学在前苏联的传播与发展;马克思主义在社会主义国际和共产国际之间的理论与实践;马克思主义在当代科学哲学中的延续;西方马克思主义科学哲学的初步探索等。     

Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market

Most economic variables are released with a lag, making it difficult for policy‐makers to make an accurate assessment of current conditions. This paper explores whether observing Internet browsing habits can inform practitioners about aggregate consumer behavior in an emerging market. Using data on Google search queries, we introduce an index of online interest in automobile purchases in Chile and test whether it improves the fit and efficiency of nowcasting models for automobile sales. Despite relatively low rates of Internet usage among the population, we find that models incorporating our Google Trends Automotive Index outperform benchmark specifications in both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample nowcasts, provide substantial gains in information delivery times, and are better at identifying turning points in the sales data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting private consumption: survey‐based indicators vs. Google trends

In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption‐related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey‐based indicators: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey‐based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汽车故障诊断技术的现状与发展趋势

汽车诊断技术在过去的几十年中取得了迅速的发展,本文介绍了汽车故障诊断技术的发展历程,阐述了汽车故障诊断技术的发展现状,并展望了汽车故障诊断技术的发展趋势。     

国外“虚拟现实技术发展及演化趋势”研究综述

虚拟现实技术应用领域广泛,应用综合价值高,掌握其核心技术发展方向非常关键。从20世纪30年代至今,虚拟现实技术历经概念萌芽、技术探索、突破发展和产业应用这4个发展阶段。以关键技术为基础,搭载软件和硬件,根据需求可构造不同沉浸度虚拟现实系统,并应用于国防军事、教育培训、医疗保健、工业制造、娱乐文化等领域。尽管虚拟现实发展可能会面临安全及技术等问题,但它竞争潜力大,未来应用领域会不断拓展。     

模拟飞行视景系统发展现状和趋势

模拟飞行视景系统是用来模拟座舱外部空中及地面的景象,它是模拟飞行中最重要的仿真系统之一。本文対视景系统的发展过程、发展现状进行了综合评述,并对视景系统的发展趋势进行了深入的分析和探讨,具有很强的参考价值。