Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国黄土区东亚古季风气候与冰期气候对比研究

研究了中国黄土区冰期气候与季风气候记录;进行了黄土磁化率与大洋δ１８Ｏ曲线对比,并且将黄土组合—古土壤组合与冰期－间冰期气候进行了比较。结果表明：黄土组合与古土壤组合记录了冰期气候与间冰期气候;中国黄土—古土壤堆积是全球冰期—间冰期气候变化与东亚古季风气候变化共同作用的结果。     

宇宙尘埃流入量与地球气候冷暖关系分析

宇宙尘埃流入量的多少具１０万年的周期变化。宇宙尘埃流入量增加，地球气候变暖，出现间冰期环境；当宇宙尘埃流入量减少，地球气候变冷，出现冰期环境，这是由于宇宙法埃对短波辐射和长波辐射的热效应不同所致。     

A high-resolution environmental change record since 19 cal ka BP in Pumoyum Co,southern Tibet

A 380-cm-long sediment core was acquired from the deep water area of Pumoyum Co, southern Tibet. Twenty-five plant residue samples were selected, and organic carbon stable isotopes were obtained using the AMS ¹⁴C chronological method. The ¹⁴C age and carbon reservoir effect were calibrated with surface sedimentation rate measurements using ²¹⁰Pb dating. Results showed that the core sediment deposited over 19 cal ka BP. Based on a multi-proxy analysis of TOC and IC contents, grain size and pollen assemblage data, the palaeoclimatic evolution of Pumoyum Co was reconstructed since the last glacial. Pumoyum Co was a shallow lake prior to 16.2 cal ka BP; although the glacier around the lake began to melt due to increasing temperatures, climate was still cold and dry. In the interval of 16.2–11.8 cal ka BP, the sedimentary environment fluctuated drastically and frequently. Two cold-events occurred at 14.2 and 11.8 cal ka BP, and these may correspond to the Older Dryas and the Younger Dryas events, respectively. After 11.8 cal ka BP, Pumoyun Co developed into the deep lake as it is now. The lake water temperature was relatively lower at that time because of influx of cold water from glacial meltwater entering the lake. As a result, the multi-proxy indicators showed no sign of warm conditions. Comparisons between the sedimentary record of Pumoyum Co with that of other lakes of the same age in southern Tibet indicate a warmer climate following the last deglaciation influenced the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. These results imply that the southwest Asian monsoon gradually became stronger since the deglaciation during its expansion to the inner plateau. The glacial-supplied water of the lake responded sensitively to cold-events. The entire southern Tibet region was dominantly influenced climatically by the southwest Asian monsoon during the Holocene.     

半无限二次规划

本文给出了半无限二次规划和它的对偶规划之间没有间隙的条件。还证明了具有对偶间隙的半无限二次规划可以通过扰动其目标函数来消除,且扰动后的半无限二次规划的最优值收敛于原始半无限二次规划的最优值。     

新疆冰湖溃决灾害风险评价与预警研究

受全球气候变暖及人类活动的影响,冰湖溃决灾害已成为当前新疆地区经济可持续发展中的突出问题之一。利用1977(MSS)～2015年Landsat影像、2015年的Google Earth高精度影像和DEM等数据解译获取新疆冰湖的时空分布信息,并选取导致冰湖溃决的主要影响因子,运用MATLAB和SPSS等软件,利用西北地区已有冰湖数据作为训练样本拟合评价方程,建立了新疆冰湖溃决风险评价模型和基于BP神经网络算法的预警模型。结果表明:(1)1977年以来新疆三大山系中冰湖的数量和面积不断增加,冰湖数量上增加了62.0%,冰湖面积增长率为0.98 km~2·a~(-1),但增长率呈现逐年减小的趋势;(2)对分布在新疆范围内的17个典型冰湖溃决风险评价的结果显示:有5个冰湖为高危风险、5个冰湖为中等风险、7个冰湖为低等风险,新疆大约29%的冰湖需要进行实时监测。     

Variability of snail growing season at the Chinese Loess Plateau during the last 75 ka

Knowledge of seasonal climate change is one of the key issues facing Quaternary paleoclimatic studies and estimating seasonal climate change is difficult,especially changes such as seasonal length on glacial-interglacial timescales.The stable isotope composition from seasonal land snail shells provides the potential to reveal seasonal climatic features.Two modern land snail species,cold-aridiphilous Pupilla aeoli and thermo-humidiphilous Punctum orphana,were collected from different climatic zones in 18 localities across the Chinese Loess Plateau,spanning 11 degrees of longitude and covering a range of 1000 km2.The duration of the snail growing season(temperature ≥10℃) was shorter(202 ± 6 d) in the eastern Loess Plateau compared with in the western Loess Plateau(162 ±7 d).The δ13C of P.aeoli shells was ?9.1‰ to ?4.7‰ and ?5.0‰ to 0.3‰ for δ18O.For P.orphana,the δ13C ranged from ?9.1‰ to ?1.9‰ and ?8.9‰ to ?2.9‰ for δ18O.Both the δ13C and δ18O differences between the two snail species were reduced from the east to the western Loess Plateau(2.8‰ to 0.2 ± 1.1‰ for δ13C and 4.7‰ to 2.9 ± 1.3‰ for δ18O).These isotopic differences roughly reflect the difference in the growing season lengths between the east and west Loess Plateau indicating that the duration of the snail growing season shortens by 15 d or 19 d if the difference decreases by 1‰ in δ13C or δ18O,respectively.Thus,the difference in δ13C and δ18O between both snail species can be used to reveal the length of the snail growing season in the past.Based on our investigation,the length of the snail growing seasons from the Xifeng region during the last 75 ka was reconstructed.During the mid-Holocene(8-3 ka),the mean isotopic difference from both snail species reached maximum values of 2.6 ± 0.7‰ and 2.1 ± 1.4‰ for δ13C and δ18O,respectively.This was followed by MIS 3 that ranged from 2.5 ± 0.4‰ for δ13C and 1.6 ± 0.8‰ for δ18O.The Last Glacial Maximum changed by only 0.2‰ and 0.4‰ for δ13C and δ18O,respectively.Therefore,we estimate that the duration of the snail growing seasons to be ～200 ± 10 d during the mid-Holocene,190 ± 6 d in MIS 3 and 160 ± 3 d during the last glacial period.     

环境恶化与经济衰退的动力学模型

建立了环境经济耦合系统的动力学模型,分析了环境污染引发经济衰退的机制.结果表明:环境恶化和相应的经济损失可能导致经济衰退,并且由于环境系统演化的非线性,在某些情况下,经济衰退可能是难以逆转的.如果进行适当的污染治理投资,则可能改善环境状况,从而避免经济衰退.