The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

From forecasting to ‘la prospective’ a new way of looking at futures

Although‘La Prospective’is not well known in the Anglo-Saxon forecasting literature, it has been for many years widely used in France and other Latin countries with considerable success. Lately, because of the inaccuracy of forecasting and the large forecasting errors that have been experienced, it is suggested that the Prospective approach can be used as a way of dealing with these problems. The main characteristics of‘La Prospective’are that it does not look at the future as a continuation of the past but rather as the outcome of the wishes of various actors and the constraints imposed on them by the environment. Its purpose is to assist in creating alternative futures and then select some alternative that allows for maximum freedom of action.     

关于新型冠状病毒命名的思考与建议

2019年12月,一种由新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)引起的病毒性肺炎开始在武汉暴发流行。2020年2月11日,世界卫生组织(WHO)将新型冠状病毒肺炎命名为COVID-19(冠状病毒病2019),国际病毒分类学委员会(ICTV)的冠状病毒研究小组(CSG)建议把新型冠状病毒命名为SARS-CoV-2(严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2),既没有与疾病名称一致,也没有完全真实地显示该病毒本身的特征,因而立即引发关注和争议。基于COVID-19的病原学、流行病学和临床特征的基本信息,建议将新型冠状病毒命名为“人类冠状病毒2019”(human coronavirus 2019,简称HCoV-19)。文章回顾并评价了CSG的命名方法,指出他们使用基于基因序列信息进行病毒命名的方法并不合适,建议采用传统的联系疾病的病毒命名方法对具有明显疾病特点的病毒如2019-nCoV进行命名。     

基于三重注意力机制的新冠肺炎病灶分割模型

为了解决感染区域比正常组织对比度低的问题,提出了一种基于三重注意力机制(triple attention mechanism,TAM)的新冠肺炎(corona virus disease 2019,COVID 19)病灶分割模型——TM-Net,并将其应用于条件生成对抗网络.MultiConv模块可以自动提取肺部切片中...     

细胞低氧感知与响应——2019年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖成果简析

 2019年诺贝尔生理学或医学奖颁给了William G.Kaelin、Jr、Sir Peter J.Ratcliffe、Gregg L.Semenza，以奖励他们在细胞低氧感知与适应的相关研究中所做出的开创性贡献。他们发现细胞利用了转录因子HIF-1的α亚基上的羟基化修饰来感知细胞内的氧水平，而低氧条件下未羟基化的HIF-1α会快速累积，并进入细胞核内调控上千个基因的转录。细胞低氧响应与多种人类疾病紧密相关，包括贫血症、红细胞增多症、心血管疾病、卒中以及癌症。回顾了细胞低氧响应信号通路的发现过程以及与低氧响应有关的人类疾病。     

2019年临床心理学热点回眸

 回顾了2019年临床心理学领域的研究热点，包括：心理健康素养的概念扩展与深入研究，正念疗法的脑机制研究进展和应用效果，运动对心理健康的促进作用，健康饮食对心理健康的促进作用，空气、绿化等环境因素对心理健康的影响，人工智能在精神卫生领域的应用，游戏成瘾纳入国际疾病诊断分类标准，研究生群体心理健康问题引发关注。     

Reconsidering the Fresnel–Maxwell theory shift: how the realist can have her cake and EAT it too

This paper takes another look at a case study which has featured prominently in a variety of arguments for rival realist positions. After critically reviewing the previous commentaries of the theory shift that took place in the transition from Fresnel’s ether to Maxwell’s electromagnetic theory of optics, it will defend a slightly different reading of this historical case study. Central to this task is the notion of explanatory approximate truth, a concept which must be carefully analysed to begin with. With this notion properly understood, it will be finally argued, the popular Fresnel–Maxwell case study points towards a novel formulation of scientific realism.     

新型冠状病毒疫苗潜在不良反应的研究进展

新型冠状病毒(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2)感染引起的新型冠状病毒肺炎(Coronavirus Disease-2019,COVID-19,简称新冠肺炎)在全球流行暴发,严重威胁人类生命健康,给全球造成了巨大的医疗、经济和社会破坏。在目前缺乏特异性治疗方法的情况下,预防性疫苗是全球新冠肺炎防控最有效的手段,国内外已有17个(其中我国5个)新型冠状病毒疫苗(简称新冠疫苗)获批附条件上市或紧急使用。为了应对大规模疫苗接种潜在的不良反应挑战,本文对全球已投入使用的新冠疫苗的安全性进行总结,分析其潜在的不良反应,提出加强应对新冠疫苗接种不良事件及医疗应急保障的思考。     

Improving the accuracy of GRACE Earth’s gravitational field using the combination of different inclinations

In this paper, the GRACE Earth＇s gravitational field complete up to degree and order 120 is recovered based on the combination of different inclinations using the energy conservation principle. The results show that because different inclinations of satellite are sensitive to the geopotential coefficients with different degrees l and orders m, the design of GRACE exploiting 89° inclination can effectively improve the accuracy of geopotential zonal harmonic coefficients. However, it is less sensitive to the geopotential tesseral harmonic coef- ficients. Accordingly, the second group of GRACE exploiting lower inclination is required to determine high-accurately the geopotential tesseral harmonic coefficients and cover the shortage of the single group of GRACE exploiting 89° inclination. Two groups of GRACE individually exploiting 89° ＋ （82°-84°） inclinations are the optimal combination of the Earth＇s gravitational field recovery complete up to degree and order 120. In the degree 120, the joint accuracy of cumulative geoid height based on two groups of GRACE individually exoloiting 89° and 83° inclinations is averagely two times higher than the accuracy of a group of GRACE exploiting 89~ inclination.     

Synaptic dysfunction in Huntington’s disease: a new perspective

Huntington’s disease (HD) is caused by a polyglutamine expansion in the protein huntingtin and is characterized by intraneuronal inclusions and widespread neuronal death at the late stage of the disease. In research, most of the emphasis has been on understanding the cell death and its mechanisms. Until recently, it was believed that the vast majority, if not all, of the symptoms in HD are a direct consequence of neurodegeneration. However, increasing evidence shows that subtle alterations in synaptic function could underlie the early symptoms. It is of particular interest to understand the nature of this neuronal dysfunction. Normal huntingtin interacts with various cytoskeletal and synaptic vesicle proteins that are essential for exocytosis and endocytosis. Altered interactions of mutant huntingtin with its associated partners could contribute to abnormal synaptic transmission in HD. This review describes recent advances in understanding synaptic dysfunction in HD.Received 2 March 2005; received after revision 13 April 2005; accepted 19 April 2005