资本预算中的确定当量法之澄清

与风险调整折现率法不同,主观确定当量法无法得到一个投资项目的客观估值结果.即使给定决策主体,主观确定当量本身也难以同时满足可加性和可乘性,因而不能保证投资项目评估结果的逻辑一致性.对二叉树模型的无套利分析揭示了确定当量法、风险调整折现率法和风险中性概率法这三种估值方法之间的联系,并发现确定当量这一概念本质上应当是风险中性期望.在资本资产定价模型成立的条件下,给出了客观确定当量的计算公式.     

浅析我国科研绩效管理现状及问题

科技项目的绩效评价,是指遵循一定的原则、程序和标准,运用科学、规范的方法,对科技项目目标的实现程度、经费投入产生的效益和经费的使用管理等方面进行综合评价。本文对我国科研绩效管理的现状及问题进行了详细的阐述,以期对科研绩效管理的研究起到一定的作用。     

Money, Time and Variety Engineering: The Application of Cybernetics to the Diagnosis and Design of Financial Performance Management Systems

Variety engineering was the term coined by Stafford Beer to describe the management of the system of constraints placed on an organisation. Successful variety engineering involves working with the demands of Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety; matching regulatory variety with that of the situation being regulated. Money is an important mechanism for variety engineering: the allocation of financial resources helps amplify variety; its withdrawal attenuates. This paper argues that budgeting, the conventional approach to the management of financial resources, demonstrably does not have requisite variety. This fact could be manifest in a range of undesirable patterns of behaviour. The practice of budgeting has not, however, been seriously challenged by systems theorists nor alternative mechanisms proposed. This paper sets to remedy this by describing how the cybernetic regulation of the flow of financial resources can be incorporated into the framework provided by Beer’s Viable Systems Model.     

Forecasting capacity and capacity utilization in the U.S. aerospace industry

The forecasting of capacity and its utilization is particularly relevant in the aerospace industry because of long product delivery lead-times and the forward-pricing system. The objective of this paper is to develop a method for forecasting both the industry's capacity and its capacity utilization so that decision makers who must rely on this information may have policy guidance. The result shows that the aerospace industry's capacity expansion rate is closely tied to its present and recent past state of capacity utilization, and to anticipated changes in output. Output, in turn, can be predicted by using Five Year Defense Plans data and information on the cyclical nature of commercial business. Based on these findings, we were able to build an accurate model for forecasting aerospace industry capacity utilization.     

地方政府绩效预算分析

随着市场经济的日趋成熟,公众对政府合理高效地配置公共资源的预期也日益增强。分析了绩效预算的应用背景,阐述了绩效预算在西方的发展历程、中国地方政府预算体制改革的尝试及存在的问题,并对相关问题进行了思考。