A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The gene encoding ganglioside-induced differentiation-associated protein 1 is mutated in axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 4A disease.

We identified three distinct mutations and six mutant alleles in GDAP1 in three families with axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) neuropathy and vocal cord paresis, which were previously linked to the CMT4A locus on chromosome 8q21.1. These results establish the molecular etiology of CMT4A (MIM 214400) and suggest that it may be associated with both axonal and demyelinating phenotypes.     

A 6,000-year sedimentary molecular record of chemocline excursions in the Black Sea

The Black Sea is the world's largest anoxic basin; it is also a contemporary analogue of the environment in which carbonaceous shales and petroleum source beds formed. Recently, Repeta et al. reported that anoxygenic photosynthesis may be an important component of carbon cycling in the present Black Sea, owing to a shoaling of the chemocline and consequent penetration of the photic zone by anaerobic waters in the past few decades. It has been suggested that this was due to an anthropogenic decrease in freshwater input to the Black Sea, although natural causes were not ruled out. Here we report the distributions of sequestered photosynthetic pigments in eight core samples of sediments from the Black Sea ranging in age from zero to 6,200 years before the present. Our results show that photosynthetic green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae [correction of Clorobiaceae]) have been active in the Black Sea for substantial periods of time in the past. This finding indicates that the penetration of the photic zone by anaerobic waters is not a recent phenomenon, and suggests that natural causes for shoaling of the chemocline are more likely than anthropogenic ones.     

Historical review and redescription of three poorly known species of the catfish genus Trichomycterus from south-eastern Brazil (Siluriformes: Trichomycteridae)

ABSTRACT

This study is primarily directed to the most poorly known species of the genus Trichomycterus, comprising five nominal species (T. florensis, T. immaculatus, T. nigricans, T. paquequerensis and T. santaeritae) endemic to south-eastern Brazil. One of them, T. nigricans, is the type species of the genus, involved in taxonomic problems for over 150 years. A detailed historical review, accompanied by examination of type specimens and recent collections, revealed that the correct type locality of T. nigricans is in the vicinity of Rio de Janeiro, not Santa Catarina as commonly appears in the literature; specimens previously misidentified as T. nigricans from Santa Catarina belong to a possibly undescribed species of the genus Cambeva; T. paquequerensis is a synonym of T. immaculatus, and T. florensis is a synonym of T. santaeritae; and the hypothesis that T. santaeritae is closely related to the Amazon Sarcoglanidinae is refuted. The three valid species are redescribed. These species are members of a clade also including T. caipora that is highly supported by molecular data, diagnosed by a pronounced posterior maxillary process and caudal fin emarginate at least in larger specimens. A subclade comprising T. caipora, T. nigricans and T. santaeritae is diagnosed by a long maxilla and a bifid anterior extremity of hypobranchial 3.     

Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary

The start of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum--a period of exceptional global warming about 55 million years ago--is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion that reflects a massive input of 13C-depleted ('light') carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. It is often assumed that this carbon injection initiated the rapid increase in global surface temperatures and environmental change that characterize the climate perturbation, but the exact sequence of events remains uncertain. Here we present chemical and biotic records of environmental change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary from two sediment sections in New Jersey that have high sediment accumulation rates. We show that the onsets of environmental change (as recorded by the abundant occurrence ('acme') of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium) and of surface-ocean warming (as evidenced by the palaeothermometer TEX86) preceded the light carbon injection by several thousand years. The onset of the Apectodinium acme also precedes the carbon isotope excursion in sections from the southwest Pacific Ocean and the North Sea, indicating that the early onset of environmental change was not confined to the New Jersey shelf. The lag of approximately 3,000 years between the onset of warming in New Jersey shelf waters and the carbon isotope excursion is consistent with the hypothesis that bottom water warming caused the injection of 13C-depleted carbon by triggering the dissociation of submarine methane hydrates, but the cause of the early warming remains uncertain.     

A second generation human haplotype map of over 3.1 million SNPs

We describe the Phase II HapMap, which characterizes over 3.1 million human single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped in 270 individuals from four geographically diverse populations and includes 25-35% of common SNP variation in the populations surveyed. The map is estimated to capture untyped common variation with an average maximum r2 of between 0.9 and 0.96 depending on population. We demonstrate that the current generation of commercial genome-wide genotyping products captures common Phase II SNPs with an average maximum r2 of up to 0.8 in African and up to 0.95 in non-African populations, and that potential gains in power in association studies can be obtained through imputation. These data also reveal novel aspects of the structure of linkage disequilibrium. We show that 10-30% of pairs of individuals within a population share at least one region of extended genetic identity arising from recent ancestry and that up to 1% of all common variants are untaggable, primarily because they lie within recombination hotspots. We show that recombination rates vary systematically around genes and between genes of different function. Finally, we demonstrate increased differentiation at non-synonymous, compared to synonymous, SNPs, resulting from systematic differences in the strength or efficacy of natural selection between populations.     

Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models.