Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A small GTP-binding protein dissociates from synaptic vesicles during exocytosis.

Low-molecular-weight GTP-binding proteins are strong candidates for regulators of membrane traffic. In yeast, mutations in the sec4 or ypt1 genes encoding small GTP-binding proteins inhibit constitutive membrane flow at the plasma membrane or Golgi complex, respectively. It has been suggested that membrane fusion-fission events are regulated by cycling of small GTP-binding proteins between a membrane-bound and free state, but although most of these small proteins are found in both soluble and tightly membrane-bound forms, there is no direct evidence to support such cycling. In rat brain a small GTP-binding protein, rab3A, is exclusively associated with synaptic vesicles, the secretory organelles of nerve terminals. Here we use isolated nerve terminals to study the fate of rab3A during synaptic vesicle exocytosis. We find that rab3A dissociates quantitatively from the vesicle membrane after Ca2(+)-dependent exocytosis and that this dissociation is partially reversible during recovery after stimulation. These results are direct evidence for an association-dissociation cycle of a small GTP-binding protein during traffic of its host membrane.     

The Dynamics of Change in Everyday Life: Final Response

Due to Swedish history, to date there has been a common understanding of the meaning of volunteering in Sweden. However, it seems as if the meaning of volunteering is changing in Sweden, at least in some atypical hybrid organizations. However, this change presupposes that there is a conception of volunteering that has been institutionalized by tradition. Hence, to understand this change, one has to capture the institutionalized meaning of volunteering. In the academic debate there is sometimes an implied opposition between conceptual meaning and existential meaning. It is argued that this divide is unfortunate, the existential aspect presupposes the conceptual aspect of meaning. The study of the meaning of volunteering is an attempt to uncover existential meaning in everyday life. Neither the cognitive meaning nor the existential meaning of volunteering is an objective fact but fragile and dependent upon contextual factors.     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

Chiral magnetic order at surfaces driven by inversion asymmetry

Chirality is a fascinating phenomenon that can manifest itself in subtle ways, for example in biochemistry (in the observed single-handedness of biomolecules) and in particle physics (in the charge-parity violation of electroweak interactions). In condensed matter, magnetic materials can also display single-handed, or homochiral, spin structures. This may be caused by the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, which arises from spin-orbit scattering of electrons in an inversion-asymmetric crystal field. This effect is typically irrelevant in bulk metals as their crystals are inversion symmetric. However, low-dimensional systems lack structural inversion symmetry, so that homochiral spin structures may occur. Here we report the observation of magnetic order of a specific chirality in a single atomic layer of manganese on a tungsten (110) substrate. Spin-polarized scanning tunnelling microscopy reveals that adjacent spins are not perfectly antiferromagnetic but slightly canted, resulting in a spin spiral structure with a period of about 12 nm. We show by quantitative theory that this chiral order is caused by the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction and leads to a left-rotating spin cycloid. Our findings confirm the significance of this interaction for magnets in reduced dimensions. Chirality in nanoscale magnets may play a crucial role in spintronic devices, where the spin rather than the charge of an electron is used for data transmission and manipulation. For instance, a spin-polarized current flowing through chiral magnetic structures will exert a spin-torque on the magnetic structure, causing a variety of excitations or manipulations of the magnetization and giving rise to microwave emission, magnetization switching, or magnetic motors.     

14-3-3sigma controls mitotic translation to facilitate cytokinesis

14-3-3 proteins are crucial in a wide variety of cellular responses including cell cycle progression, DNA damage checkpoints and apoptosis. One particular 14-3-3 isoform, sigma, is a p53-responsive gene, the function of which is frequently lost in human tumours, including breast and prostate cancers as a result of either hypermethylation of the 14-3-3sigma promoter or induction of an oestrogen-responsive ubiquitin ligase that specifically targets 14-3-3sigma for proteasomal degradation. Loss of 14-3-3sigma protein occurs not only within the tumours themselves but also in the surrounding pre-dysplastic tissue (so-called field cancerization), indicating that 14-3-3sigma might have an important tumour suppressor function that becomes lost early in the process of tumour evolution. The molecular basis for the tumour suppressor function of 14-3-3sigma is unknown. Here we report a previously unknown function for 14-3-3sigma as a regulator of mitotic translation through its direct mitosis-specific binding to a variety of translation/initiation factors, including eukaryotic initiation factor 4B in a stoichiometric manner. Cells lacking 14-3-3sigma, in marked contrast to normal cells, cannot suppress cap-dependent translation and do not stimulate cap-independent translation during and immediately after mitosis. This defective switch in the mechanism of translation results in reduced mitotic-specific expression of the endogenous internal ribosomal entry site (IRES)-dependent form of the cyclin-dependent kinase Cdk11 (p58 PITSLRE), leading to impaired cytokinesis, loss of Polo-like kinase-1 at the midbody, and the accumulation of binucleate cells. The aberrant mitotic phenotype of 14-3-3sigma-depleted cells can be rescued by forced expression of p58 PITSLRE or by extinguishing cap-dependent translation and increasing cap-independent translation during mitosis by using rapamycin. Our findings show how aberrant mitotic translation in the absence of 14-3-3sigma impairs mitotic exit to generate binucleate cells and provides a potential explanation of how 14-3-3sigma-deficient cells may progress on the path to aneuploidy and tumorigenesis.