Maxwell's role in turning the concept of model into the methodology of modeling

This is a contribution towards a history and philosophy of modeling in its early stages in electromagnetism. In 1873, James Clerk Maxwell (1831–1879) hinted at the methodology of modeling at the end of his Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism. We focus on Maxwell's impact on physicists who immediately followed him, specifically Oliver Lodge (1851–1940) and George Francis FitzGerald (1851–1901). We begin with the role that the scientific concept of model played in the late nineteenth century, as assessed by Ludwig Boltzmann (1844–1906). We then discuss the role of hypothesis as a methodology, the appeal to (dynamical) illustration, and the way Maxwell applied model and working model in his studies of electromagnetism. We show that for Maxwell these key terms were kept distinct, but Lodge did not maintain these distinctions and, in this regard, FitzGerald followed Lodge. Notwithstanding Lodge's influence, Fitzgerald modified Maxwell's theory based on the mechanical model he designed, thereby implicitly taking the first step towards modeling. This methodology consists in drawing consequences from the (mechanical) model to the (electrodynamic) theory and modifying the latter in light of the functioning of the former. At the core of our argument is the thesis that it was a methodological novelty to move from the concept of model to the methodology of modeling. The introduction of modeling as a new methodology into physics in the late nineteenth century was a major event which deserves proper recognition.     

The expansion of GPCR transactivation-dependent signalling to include serine/threonine kinase receptors represents a new cell signalling frontier

G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) signalling is mediated through transactivation-independent signalling pathways or the transactivation of protein tyrosine kinase receptors and the recently reported activation of the serine/threonine kinase receptors, most notably the transforming growth factor-β receptor family. Since the original observation of GPCR transactivation of protein tyrosine kinase receptors, there has been considerable work on the mechanism of transactivation and several pathways are prominent. These pathways include the “triple membrane bypass” pathway and the generation of reactive oxygen species. The recent recognition of GPCR transactivation of serine/threonine kinase receptors enormously broadens the GPCR signalling paradigm. It may be predicted that the transactivation of serine/threonine kinase receptors would have mechanistic similarities with transactivation of tyrosine kinase pathways; however, initial studies suggest that these two transactivation pathways are mechanistically distinct. Important questions are the relative importance of tyrosine and serine/threonine transactivation pathways, the contribution of transactivation to overall GPCR signalling, mechanisms of transactivation and the range of cell types in which this phenomenon occurs. The ultimate significance of transactivation-dependent signalling remains to be defined but it appears to be prominent and if so will represent a new cell signalling frontier.     

Combining multivariate volatility forecasts using weighted losses

The ability to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance by combining forecasts is well established in the literature. This paper advances this literature in the area of multivariate volatility forecasts by developing two combination weighting schemes that exploit volatility persistence to emphasise certain losses within the combination estimation period. A comprehensive empirical analysis of the out-of-sample forecast performance across varying dimensions, loss functions, sub-samples and forecast horizons show that new approaches significantly outperform their counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy. Within the financial applications considered, significant benefits from combination forecasts relative to the individual candidate models are observed. Although the more sophisticated combination approaches consistently rank higher relative to the equally weighted approach, their performance is statistically indistinguishable given the relatively low power of these loss functions. Finally, within the applications, further analysis highlights how combination forecasts dramatically reduce the variability in the parameter of interest, namely the portfolio weight or beta.     

Multimodal fast optical interrogation of neural circuitry

Our understanding of the cellular implementation of systems-level neural processes like action, thought and emotion has been limited by the availability of tools to interrogate specific classes of neural cells within intact, living brain tissue. Here we identify and develop an archaeal light-driven chloride pump (NpHR) from Natronomonas pharaonis for temporally precise optical inhibition of neural activity. NpHR allows either knockout of single action potentials, or sustained blockade of spiking. NpHR is compatible with ChR2, the previous optical excitation technology we have described, in that the two opposing probes operate at similar light powers but with well-separated action spectra. NpHR, like ChR2, functions in mammals without exogenous cofactors, and the two probes can be integrated with calcium imaging in mammalian brain tissue for bidirectional optical modulation and readout of neural activity. Likewise, NpHR and ChR2 can be targeted together to Caenorhabditis elegans muscle and cholinergic motor neurons to control locomotion bidirectionally. NpHR and ChR2 form a complete system for multimodal, high-speed, genetically targeted, all-optical interrogation of living neural circuits.     

Detection of prokaryotic mRNA signifies microbial viability and promotes immunity

Live vaccines have long been known to trigger far more vigorous immune responses than their killed counterparts. This has been attributed to the ability of live microorganisms to replicate and express specialized virulence factors that facilitate invasion and infection of their hosts. However, protective immunization can often be achieved with a single injection of live, but not dead, attenuated microorganisms stripped of their virulence factors. Pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs), which are detected by the immune system, are present in both live and killed vaccines, indicating that certain poorly characterized aspects of live microorganisms, not incorporated in dead vaccines, are particularly effective at inducing protective immunity. Here we show that the mammalian innate immune system can directly sense microbial viability through detection of a special class of viability-associated PAMPs (vita-PAMPs). We identify prokaryotic messenger RNA as a vita-PAMP present only in viable bacteria, the recognition of which elicits a unique innate response and a robust adaptive antibody response. Notably, the innate response evoked by viability and prokaryotic mRNA was thus far considered to be reserved for pathogenic bacteria, but we show that even non-pathogenic bacteria in sterile tissues can trigger similar responses, provided that they are alive. Thus, the immune system actively gauges the infectious risk by searching PAMPs for signatures of microbial life and thus infectivity. Detection of vita-PAMPs triggers a state of alert not warranted for dead bacteria. Vaccine formulations that incorporate vita-PAMPs could thus combine the superior protection of live vaccines with the safety of dead vaccines.     

A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death

Technological advances in DNA recovery and sequencing have drastically expanded the scope of genetic analyses of ancient specimens to the extent that full genomic investigations are now feasible and are quickly becoming standard. This trend has important implications for infectious disease research because genomic data from ancient microbes may help to elucidate mechanisms of pathogen evolution and adaptation for emerging and re-emerging infections. Here we report a reconstructed ancient genome of Yersinia pestis at 30-fold average coverage from Black Death victims securely dated to episodes of pestilence-associated mortality in London, England, 1348-1350. Genetic architecture and phylogenetic analysis indicate that the ancient organism is ancestral to most extant strains and sits very close to the ancestral node of all Y. pestis commonly associated with human infection. Temporal estimates suggest that the Black Death of 1347-1351 was the main historical event responsible for the introduction and widespread dissemination of the ancestor to all currently circulating Y. pestis strains pathogenic to humans, and further indicates that contemporary Y. pestis epidemics have their origins in the medieval era. Comparisons against modern genomes reveal no unique derived positions in the medieval organism, indicating that the perceived increased virulence of the disease during the Black Death may not have been due to bacterial phenotype. These findings support the notion that factors other than microbial genetics, such as environment, vector dynamics and host susceptibility, should be at the forefront of epidemiological discussions regarding emerging Y. pestis infections.