Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

大科学:跌入凡尘奈若何

国际空间站和欧洲核子中心的大型强子对撞机 (LHC)计划目前都面临资金上的窘境 ;……除了对项目 (尤其是耗资巨大的项目 )预算的科学化 ,管理的科学化在其中尤显重要     

Sul meccanismo di azione della streptomicina

Summary A study was undertaken on the variations of the redox potential level produced by streptomycinin vitro andin vivo. We have been able to show that, owing to an oxidative effect, streptomycin produces an increase of the redox potential level. This oxidative effect varies in degree according to the condition of the patient.We also found that in the blood and in the spinal fluid of patients suffering from tubercular meningitis factors are present which inhibit the action of streptomycin.The results of our findings lead to the conclusion that the dose of streptomycin must be varied according to the condition of the patient if the constant level required for an efficient therapy is to be maintained in the blood and in the spinal fluid.     

Kondensationsprodukte von Oxyketonen und Aminoketonen mit 2,4,5-Triamino-6-oxy-pyrimidin

Summary By condensing 2:4:5-triamino-6-hydroxy-pyrimidine with dihydroxyacetone (diacetate), diaminoacetone or acetone-1,3-di (p-formylaminobenzoic acid) not the expected 8- or 9-oxymethyl resp. -aminomethyl-pteridines but 8-or 9-methyl-pteridines were obtained. With p-tolyl-d-isoglucosamine not a tetrahydroxybutyl-pteridine but a trihydroxybutyl-pteridine was formed. For an explanation of these results it is supposed that from the dihydro-pteridines formed at first by intramolecular splitting off of H₂O or R·NH₂ aromatization takes place.     

Ideals and monisms: recent criticisms of the Strong Programme in the sociology of knowledge

I offer a reply to criticisms of the Strong Programme presented by Stephen Kemp who develops some new lines of argument that focus on the ‘monism’ of the programme. He says the programme should be rejected for three reasons. First, because it embodies ‘weak idealism’, that is, its supporters effectively sever the link between language and the world. Second, it challenges the reasons that scientists offer in explanation of their own beliefs. Third, it destroys the distinction between successful and unsuccessful instrumental action. Kemp is careful to produce quotations from the supporters of the programme as evidence to support his case. All three points deserve and are given a detailed response and the interpretation of the quoted material plays a significant role in the discussion. My hope is that careful exegesis will offset the numerous misinterpretations that are current in the philosophical literature. Particular attention is paid to what is said about the normative standards involved in the application of empirical concepts. The operation of these standards in the face of the negotiability of all concepts is explored and misapprehensions on the topic are corrected. The work of Wittgenstein, Popper, Kuhn and Hesse is used to illustrate these themes.     

Pierre Duhem’s virtue epistemology

Duhem’s concept of ‘good sense’ is central to his philosophy of science, given that it is what allows scientists to decide between competing theories. Scientists must use good sense and have intellectual and moral virtues in order to be neutral arbiters of scientific theories, especially when choosing between empirically adequate theories. I discuss the parallels in Duhem’s views to those of virtue epistemologists, who understand justified belief as that arrived at by a cognitive agent with intellectual and moral virtues, showing how consideration of Duhem as a virtue epistemologist offers insights into his views, as well as providing possible answers to some puzzles about virtue epistemology. The extent to which Duhem holds that the intellectual and moral virtues of the scientist determine scientific knowledge has not been generally noticed.     

Die Wirkung von synthetischen Antihistaminkörpern auf die Senfölchemosis am Kaninchenauge

Summary Intravenous or subcutaneous administration of pyribenzamine and other antihistaminics is able to decrease, and to delay the appearance of chemosis produced by mustard oils in the eye of the rabbit. Simultaneously occurring vascular reactions, on the other hand, are but slightly affected by antihistaminics. Intravenous or subcutaneous administration of rutin has no clear-cut effect on chemosis; it is however able to inhibit the vascular reaction.