Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Targeting O 6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase with specific inhibitors as a strategy in cancer therapy

O ⁶-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) repairs the cancer chemotherapy-relevant DNA adducts, O ⁶-methylguanine and O ⁶-chloroethylguanine, induced by methylating and chloroethylating anticancer drugs, respectively. These adducts are cytotoxic, and given the overwhelming evidence that MGMT is a key factor in resistance, strategies for inactivating MGMT have been pursued. A number of drugs have been shown to inactivate MGMT in cells, human tumour models and cancer patients, and O ⁶-benzylguanine and O ⁶-[4-bromothenyl]guanine have been used in clinical trials. While these agents show no side effects per se, they also inactivate MGMT in normal tissues and hence exacerbate the toxic side effects of the alkylating drugs, requiring dose reduction. This might explain why, in any of the reported trials, the outcome has not been improved by their inclusion. It is, however, anticipated that, with the availability of tumour targeting strategies and hematopoetic stem cell protection, MGMT inactivators hold promise for enhancing the effectiveness of alkylating agent chemotherapy.     

How People Use Rich Pictures to Help Them Think and Act

Groups of all kinds are complex organisations. To understand them and to facilitate them in process terms is a matter of rich and diverse discourse in varied fields from sustainable development to coastal ecology; from bandwidth in rural communities to health service provision. How to allow groups to discourse, problem solve and review their own issues and concerns? Diagrams in general and rich pictures in particular can be great means to allow groups to explore their subconscious, their occult sentiments and conflicted understandings. This paper explores and explains diverse use of pictures and shows how they can be applied and understood in group processes of all kinds.     

Strong dipolar effects in a quantum ferrofluid

Symmetry-breaking interactions have a crucial role in many areas of physics, ranging from classical ferrofluids to superfluid (3)He and d-wave superconductivity. For superfluid quantum gases, a variety of new physical phenomena arising from the symmetry-breaking interaction between electric or magnetic dipoles are expected. Novel quantum phases in optical lattices, such as chequerboard or supersolid phases, are predicted for dipolar bosons. Dipolar interactions can also enrich considerably the physics of quantum gases with internal degrees of freedom. Arrays of dipolar particles could be used for efficient quantum information processing. Here we report the realization of a chromium Bose-Einstein condensate with strong dipolar interactions. By using a Feshbach resonance, we reduce the usual isotropic contact interaction, such that the anisotropic magnetic dipole-dipole interaction between 52Cr atoms becomes comparable in strength. This induces a change of the aspect ratio of the atom cloud; for strong dipolar interactions, the inversion of ellipticity during expansion (the usual 'smoking gun' evidence for a Bose-Einstein condensate) can be suppressed. These effects are accounted for by taking into account the dipolar interaction in the superfluid hydrodynamic equations governing the dynamics of the gas, in the same way as classical ferrofluids can be described by including dipolar terms in the classical hydrodynamic equations. Our results are a first step in the exploration of the unique properties of quantum ferrofluids.     

Small molecule activators of SIRT1 as therapeutics for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Calorie restriction extends lifespan and produces a metabolic profile desirable for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. SIRT1, an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, is a principal modulator of pathways downstream of calorie restriction that produce beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity. Resveratrol, a polyphenolic SIRT1 activator, mimics the anti-ageing effects of calorie restriction in lower organisms and in mice fed a high-fat diet ameliorates insulin resistance, increases mitochondrial content, and prolongs survival. Here we describe the identification and characterization of small molecule activators of SIRT1 that are structurally unrelated to, and 1,000-fold more potent than, resveratrol. These compounds bind to the SIRT1 enzyme-peptide substrate complex at an allosteric site amino-terminal to the catalytic domain and lower the Michaelis constant for acetylated substrates. In diet-induced obese and genetically obese mice, these compounds improve insulin sensitivity, lower plasma glucose, and increase mitochondrial capacity. In Zucker fa/fa rats, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies demonstrate that SIRT1 activators improve whole-body glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, skeletal muscle and liver. Thus, SIRT1 activation is a promising new therapeutic approach for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes.