Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between the decision and the forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued to be used with meteorological forecasts, it is hardly mentioned in standard academic texts on economic forecasting. Some of the main issues involved are illustrated in the context of a two‐state, two‐action decision problem as well as in a more general setting. Relationships between statistical and economic methods of forecast evaluation are discussed and links between the Kuipers score used as a measure of forecast accuracy in the meteorology literature and the market timing tests used in finance are established. An empirical application to the problem of stock market predictability is also provided, and the conditions under which such predictability could be explained in the presence of transaction costs are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dual effects of sodium sulfide on the flotation behavior of chalcopyrite: I. Effect of pulp potential

This study explores the flotation behavior of chalcopyrite in the presence of different concentrations of sodium sulfide (Na₂S·9H₂O) at pH 12 under controlled potential conditions. It was observed that the flotation of chalcopyrite is not depressed completely when the pulp potential is low, even at high concentrations of sodium sulfide, i.e., 10?1–10?2 mol/L. However, a partial and controlled oxidation of pulp does enhance the effectiveness of sodium sulfide on the depression of chalcopyrite. Characterization of the chalcopyrite particle surface by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy allowed the identification of hydrophilic and hydrophobic surface species, which are responsible for the depression and flotation of chalcopyrite. Changes in pulp potential were found to be an effective float controlling parameter, by which Na2S can be used to initiate or depress the flotation behavior of chalcopyrite.     

Network modeling links breast cancer susceptibility and centrosome dysfunction

Many cancer-associated genes remain to be identified to clarify the underlying molecular mechanisms of cancer susceptibility and progression. Better understanding is also required of how mutations in cancer genes affect their products in the context of complex cellular networks. Here we have used a network modeling strategy to identify genes potentially associated with higher risk of breast cancer. Starting with four known genes encoding tumor suppressors of breast cancer, we combined gene expression profiling with functional genomic and proteomic (or 'omic') data from various species to generate a network containing 118 genes linked by 866 potential functional associations. This network shows higher connectivity than expected by chance, suggesting that its components function in biologically related pathways. One of the components of the network is HMMR, encoding a centrosome subunit, for which we demonstrate previously unknown functional associations with the breast cancer-associated gene BRCA1. Two case-control studies of incident breast cancer indicate that the HMMR locus is associated with higher risk of breast cancer in humans. Our network modeling strategy should be useful for the discovery of additional cancer-associated genes.     

Free choice activates a decision circuit between frontal and parietal cortex

We often face alternatives that we are free to choose between. Planning movements to select an alternative involves several areas in frontal and parietal cortex that are anatomically connected into long-range circuits. These areas must coordinate their activity to select a common movement goal, but how neural circuits make decisions remains poorly understood. Here we simultaneously record from the dorsal premotor area (PMd) in frontal cortex and the parietal reach region (PRR) in parietal cortex to investigate neural circuit mechanisms for decision making. We find that correlations in spike and local field potential (LFP) activity between these areas are greater when monkeys are freely making choices than when they are following instructions. We propose that a decision circuit featuring a sub-population of cells in frontal and parietal cortex may exchange information to coordinate activity between these areas. Cells participating in this decision circuit may influence movement choices by providing a common bias to the selection of movement goals.     

Forecasting stock returns an examination of stock market trading in the presence of transaction costs

The paper presents new evidence on the predictability of excess returns on common stocks for the Standard and Poor's 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial portfolios at the monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. It shows that recursive predictions obtained on the basis of the excess returns regressions are capable of correctly predicting a statistically significant proportion of the signs of the actual returns. The paper also shows that the switching portfolios constructed on the basis of the signs of the recursive predictions mean-variance dominate the respective market portfolios when trading takes place on a quarterly or annual basis. This result holds even under a high transaction cost scenario. However, due to the larger number of transactions at the monthly frequency the monthly switching portfolios only mean-variance dominate the respective market portfolios when transaction costs are zero or low.     

The role of nonlinear dynamics of the syrinx in the vocalizations of a songbird

Birdsong is characterized by the modulation of sound properties over a wide image of timescales. Understanding the mechanisms by which the brain organizes this complex temporal behaviour is a central motivation in the study of the song control and learning system. Here we present evidence that, in addition to central neural control, a further level of temporal organization is provided by nonlinear oscillatory dynamics that are intrinsic to the avian vocal organ. A detailed temporal and spectral examination of song of the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) reveals a class of rapid song modulations that are consistent with transitions in the dynamical state of the syrinx. Furthermore, in vitro experiments show that the syrinx can produce a sequence of oscillatory states that are both spectrally and temporally complex in response to the slow variation of respiratory or syringeal parameters. As a consequence, simple variations in a small number of neural signals can result in a complex acoustic sequence.     

SAMHD1 is the dendritic- and myeloid-cell-specific HIV-1 restriction factor counteracted by Vpx

The primate lentivirus auxiliary protein Vpx counteracts an unknown restriction factor that renders human dendritic and myeloid cells largely refractory to HIV-1 infection. Here we identify SAMHD1 as this restriction factor. SAMHD1 is a protein involved in Aicardi-Goutières syndrome, a genetic encephalopathy with symptoms mimicking congenital viral infection, that has been proposed to act as a negative regulator of the interferon response. We show that Vpx induces proteasomal degradation of SAMHD1. Silencing of SAMHD1 in non-permissive cell lines alleviates HIV-1 restriction and is associated with a significant accumulation of viral DNA in infected cells. Concurrently, overexpression of SAMHD1 in sensitive cells inhibits HIV-1 infection. The putative phosphohydrolase activity of SAMHD1 is probably required for HIV-1 restriction. Vpx-mediated relief of restriction is abolished in SAMHD1-negative cells. Finally, silencing of SAMHD1 markedly increases the susceptibility of monocytic-derived dendritic cells to infection. Our results demonstrate that SAMHD1 is an antiretroviral protein expressed in cells of the myeloid lineage that inhibits an early step of the viral life cycle.