Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海南岛万泉河口沉积环境演变

根据对柱样沉积物²¹⁰Pb定年及有机碳、硫和有机碳同位素含量分析, 研究万泉河口沉积环境演变. 硫和δ¹³C均自19世纪初期开始持续减少, 硫从1.92%逐渐减少到0.36%, δ¹³C从−20.63‰减少到−23.64‰. C/S比在20世纪之前一直很稳定, 处于0.47~0.80之间, 有机碳与硫呈正相关; 在此之后, C/S比急剧增加, 至表层为3.94, 硫的含量与有机碳的增加没有相关关系. 结果表明在19世纪之前万泉河口尚为开阔的海湾, 处于正常海洋环境,未形成被沙坝围封的泻湖, 海水能够直接出入. 19世纪初期开始, 随着玉带滩沙坝向北发育, 河口逐渐被围拦成泻湖型, 进入的海水量逐渐减少; 在19与20世纪之交, 水体已开始明显淡化, 发展成为今天近乎淡水的泻湖.     

基于从头算量化参数的BPx网络模型在吡啶类化合物pKa中的应用

用量子化学从头算RHF方法在6-31G水平下对吡啶类分子进行构型全优化，并用优化得到的量化参数作为反向传播人工神经网络的输入向量，并将此模型（人工神经网络）应用到吡啶类化合物pKa值的预测。将预测结果与多元线性回归算法的结果相比较。研究表明，所构造的人工神经网模型在预测吡啶类化合物的pKa值中得到满意的结果．     

The influence of home environmental factors and life style on children＇s respiratory health in Xi＇an

To assess associations between home indoor air environments and asthma,allergies and pneumonia,children aged 1–8 years were surveyed from 12 kindergartens in the city of Xi’an.2,020 questionnaires were responded with a response rate of 83.5%.The prevalences of doctor diagnosed asthma,hay fever,and pneumonia were 2.9%,3.6%,and 28.3%,respectively.Living close to a highway was a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.5,95%CI 1.2–1.8),eczema(AOR 1.7,95%CI 1.2–2.5),and diagnosed pneumonia(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.6).Dampness problems in the home were associated with 50%–130%increases in the prevalences of asthma and allergy.Airing bed linen under sun-shine was protective,especially against rhinitis.Pet avoidance was consistently and significantly associated with asthma and allergy(AOR 1.3–2.4).Decoration of the home during children’s early life is a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.9,95%CI 1.3–2.9)and eczema(AOR 1.9,95%CI1.1–3.6).Risk factors for pneumonia were living in an apartment(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.8),latex wall paint(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),dampness(AOR 1.4–1.5),breast feeding\3 months(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),never airing bed linen in sunshine(AOR 1.3,95%CI1.3–1.6),and cleaning children’s room less frequently than once per day(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.7).This study demonstrates that home indoor environmental and life style factors may influence the health of children in Xi’an.     

The IQGAP-related protein DGAP1 mediates signaling to the actin cytoskeleton as an effector and a sequestrator of Rac1 GTPases

Proteins are typically categorized into protein families based on their domain organization. Yet, evolutionarily unrelated proteins can also be grouped together according to their common functional roles. Sequestering proteins constitute one such functional class, acting as macromolecular buffers and serving as an intracellular reservoir ready to release large quantities of bound proteins or other molecules upon appropriate stimulation. Another functional protein class comprises effector proteins, which constitute essential components of many intracellular signal transduction pathways. For instance, effectors of small GTP-hydrolases are activated upon binding a GTP-bound GTPase and thereupon participate in downstream interactions. Here we describe a member of the IQGAP family of scaffolding proteins, DGAP1 from Dictyostelium, which unifies the roles of an effector and a sequestrator in regard to the small GTPase Rac1. Unlike classical effectors, which bind their activators transiently leading to short-lived signaling complexes, interaction between DGAP1 and Rac1-GTP is stable and induces formation of a complex with actin-bundling proteins cortexillins at the back end of the cell. An oppositely localized Rac1 effector, the Scar/WAVE complex, promotes actin polymerization at the cell front. Competition between DGAP1 and Scar/WAVE for the common activator Rac1-GTP might provide the basis for the oscillatory re-polarization typically seen in randomly migrating Dictyostelium cells. We discuss the consequences of the dual roles exerted by DGAP1 and Rac1 in the regulation of cell motility and polarity, and propose that similar signaling mechanisms may be of general importance in regulating spatiotemporal dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton by small GTPases.     

Resolvin E1 and protectin D1 activate inflammation-resolution programmes

Resolution of acute inflammation is an active process essential for appropriate host responses, tissue protection and the return to homeostasis. During resolution, specific omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty-acid-derived mediators are generated within resolving exudates, including resolvin E1 (RvE1) and protectin D1 (PD1). It is thus important to pinpoint specific actions of RvE1 and PD1 in regulating tissue resolution. Here we report that RvE1 and PD1 in nanogram quantities promote phagocyte removal during acute inflammation by regulating leukocyte infiltration, increasing macrophage ingestion of apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils in vivo and in vitro, and enhancing the appearance of phagocytes carrying engulfed zymosan in lymph nodes and spleen. In this tissue terrain, inhibition of either cyclooxygenase or lipoxygenases--pivotal enzymes in the temporal generation of both pro-inflammatory and pro-resolving mediators--caused a 'resolution deficit' that was rescued by RvE1, PD1 or aspirin-triggered lipoxin A4 analogue. Also, new resolution routes were identified that involve phagocytes traversing perinodal adipose tissues and non-apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils carrying engulfed zymosan to lymph nodes. Together, these results identify new active components for postexudate resolution traffic, and demonstrate that RvE1 and PD1 are potent agonists for resolution of inflamed tissues.     

Genome sequence and analysis of the tuber crop potato

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the world's most important non-grain food crop and is central to global food security. It is clonally propagated, highly heterozygous, autotetraploid, and suffers acute inbreeding depression. Here we use a homozygous doubled-monoploid potato clone to sequence and assemble 86% of the 844-megabase genome. We predict 39,031 protein-coding genes and present evidence for at least two genome duplication events indicative of a palaeopolyploid origin. As the first genome sequence of an asterid, the potato genome reveals 2,642 genes specific to this large angiosperm clade. We also sequenced a heterozygous diploid clone and show that gene presence/absence variants and other potentially deleterious mutations occur frequently and are a likely cause of inbreeding depression. Gene family expansion, tissue-specific expression and recruitment of genes to new pathways contributed to the evolution of tuber development. The potato genome sequence provides a platform for genetic improvement of this vital crop.