On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

A closely packed system of low-mass, low-density planets transiting Kepler-11

When an extrasolar planet passes in front of (transits) its star, its radius can be measured from the decrease in starlight and its orbital period from the time between transits. Multiple planets transiting the same star reveal much more: period ratios determine stability and dynamics, mutual gravitational interactions reflect planet masses and orbital shapes, and the fraction of transiting planets observed as multiples has implications for the planarity of planetary systems. But few stars have more than one known transiting planet, and none has more than three. Here we report Kepler spacecraft observations of a single Sun-like star, which we call Kepler-11, that reveal six transiting planets, five with orbital periods between 10 and 47?days and a sixth planet with a longer period. The five inner planets are among the smallest for which mass and size have both been measured, and these measurements imply substantial envelopes of light gases. The degree of coplanarity and proximity of the planetary orbits imply energy dissipation near the end of planet formation.     

Sensitivity to antitubulin chemotherapeutics is regulated by MCL1 and FBW7

Microtubules have pivotal roles in fundamental cellular processes and are targets of antitubulin chemotherapeutics. Microtubule-targeted agents such as Taxol and vincristine are prescribed widely for various malignancies, including ovarian and breast adenocarcinomas, non-small-cell lung cancer, leukaemias and lymphomas. These agents arrest cells in mitosis and subsequently induce cell death through poorly defined mechanisms. The strategies that resistant tumour cells use to evade death induced by antitubulin agents are also unclear. Here we show that the pro-survival protein MCL1 (ref. 3) is a crucial regulator of apoptosis triggered by antitubulin chemotherapeutics. During mitotic arrest, MCL1 protein levels decline markedly, through a post-translational mechanism, potentiating cell death. Phosphorylation of MCL1 directs its interaction with the tumour-suppressor protein FBW7, which is the substrate-binding component of a ubiquitin ligase complex. The polyubiquitylation of MCL1 then targets it for proteasomal degradation. The degradation of MCL1 was blocked in patient-derived tumour cells that lacked FBW7 or had loss-of-function mutations in FBW7, conferring resistance to antitubulin agents and promoting chemotherapeutic-induced polyploidy. Additionally, primary tumour samples were enriched for FBW7 inactivation and elevated MCL1 levels, underscoring the prominent roles of these proteins in oncogenesis. Our findings suggest that profiling the FBW7 and MCL1 status of tumours, in terms of protein levels, messenger RNA levels and genetic status, could be useful to predict the response of patients to antitubulin chemotherapeutics.     

Copy number variation and selection during reprogramming to pluripotency

The mechanisms underlying the low efficiency of reprogramming somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells are poorly understood. There is a clear need to study whether the reprogramming process itself compromises genomic integrity and, through this, the efficiency of iPS cell establishment. Using a high-resolution single nucleotide polymorphism array, we compared copy number variations (CNVs) of different passages of human iPS cells with their fibroblast cell origins and with human embryonic stem (ES) cells. Here we show that significantly more CNVs are present in early-passage human iPS cells than intermediate passage human iPS cells, fibroblasts or human ES cells. Most CNVs are formed de novo and generate genetic mosaicism in early-passage human iPS cells. Most of these novel CNVs rendered the affected cells at a selective disadvantage. Remarkably, expansion of human iPS cells in culture selects rapidly against mutated cells, driving the lines towards a genetic state resembling human ES cells.     

Frictional ageing from interfacial bonding and the origins of rate and state friction

Earthquakes have long been recognized as being the result of stick-slip frictional instabilities. Over the past few decades, laboratory studies of rock friction have elucidated many aspects of tectonic fault zone processes and earthquake phenomena. Typically, the static friction of rocks grows logarithmically with time when they are held in stationary contact, but the mechanism responsible for this strengthening is not understood. This time-dependent increase of frictional strength, or frictional ageing, is one manifestation of the 'evolution effect' in rate and state friction theory. A prevailing view is that the time dependence of rock friction results from increases in contact area caused by creep of contacting asperities. Here we present the results of atomic force microscopy experiments that instead show that frictional ageing arises from the formation of interfacial chemical bonds, and the large magnitude of ageing at the nanometre scale is quantitatively consistent with what is required to explain observations in macroscopic rock friction experiments. The relative magnitude of the evolution effect compared with that of the 'direct effect'--the dependence of friction on instantaneous changes in slip velocity--determine whether unstable slip, leading to earthquakes, is possible. Understanding the mechanism underlying the evolution effect would enable us to formulate physically based frictional constitutive laws, rather than the current empirically based 'laws', allowing more confident extrapolation to natural faults.     

Eicosapentaenoic acid in tissue lipids ofPieris brassicae

Summary Larvae of the cabbage white butterfly,Pieris brassicae, have a dietary requirement for linolenic acid (C183n3) and were found to accumulate two other members of the n-3 family, C203n3 and C205n3 (eicosapentaenoic acid) especially in testicular phospholipids. Arachidonic acid was observed in trace amounts only. During diapause the relative titer of eicosapentaenoic acid increased in testicular phospholipids to about 4.2% of the fatty acids. Eicosapentaenoic acid is a possible precursor of prostaglandins, suggesting that prostaglandins of the 3-series predominate in this insect.