Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague

Bubonic plague is widely regarded as a disease of mainly historical importance; however, with increasing reports of incidence and the discovery of antibiotic-resistant strains of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis, it is re-emerging as a significant health concerns. Here we bypass the conventional human-disease models, and propose that bubonic plague is driven by the dynamics of the disease in the rat population. Using a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model, we show that bubonic plague can persist in relatively small rodent populations from which occasional human epidemics arise, without the need for external imports. This explains why historically the plague persisted despite long disease-free periods, and how the disease re-occurred in cities with tight quarantine control. In a contemporary setting, we show that human vaccination cannot eradicate the plague, and that culling of rats may prevent or exacerbate human epidemics, depending on the timing of the cull. The existence of plague reservoirs in wild rodent populations has important public-health implications for the transmission to urban rats and the subsequent risk of human outbreaks.     

Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry

International debate on the merits of vaccinating poultry against the H5N1 influenza A virus has raised concerns about the possibility of an increased risk of between-flock transmission before outbreaks are detected. Here we show that this 'silent spread' can occur because of incomplete protection at the flock level, even if a vaccine is effective in individual birds. The use of unvaccinated sentinels can mitigate, although not completely eliminate, the problem.     

Chicken genomics: feather-pecking and victim pigmentation

Feather-pecking in domestic birds is associated with cannibalism and severe welfare problems. It is a dramatic example of a spiteful behaviour in which the victim's fitness is reduced for no immediate direct benefit to the perpetrator and its evolution is unexplained. Here we show that the plumage pigmentation of a chicken may predispose it to become a victim: birds suffer more drastic feather-pecking when the colour of their plumage is due to the expression of a wild recessive allele at PMEL17, a gene that controls plumage melanization, and when these birds are relatively common in a flock. These findings, obtained using an intercross between a domestic fowl and its wild ancestor, have implications for the welfare of domestic species and offer insight into the genetic changes associated with the evolution of feather-pecking during the early stages of domestication.     

Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.     

Palaeoceanography. Antarctic stratification and glacial CO2

One way of accounting for lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during Pleistocene glacial periods is by invoking the Antarctic stratification hypothesis, which links the reduction in CO2 to greater stratification of ocean surface waters around Antarctica. As discussed by Sigman and Boyle, this hypothesis assumes that increased stratification in the Antarctic zone (Fig. 1) was associated with reduced upwelling of deep waters around Antarctica, thereby allowing CO2 outgassing to be suppressed by biological production while also allowing biological production to decline, which is consistent with Antarctic sediment records. We point out here, however, that the response of ocean eddies to increased Antarctic stratification can be expected to increase, rather than reduce, the upwelling rate of deep waters around Antarctica. The stratification hypothesis may have difficulty in accommodating eddy feedbacks on upwelling within the constraints imposed by reconstructions of winds and Antarctic-zone productivity in glacial periods.     

Interannual variability in the oxygen isotopes of atmospheric CO2 driven by El Niño

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Ni?o increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Ni?o anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Ni?o events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.     

Bose-Einstein condensation of exciton polaritons

Phase transitions to quantum condensed phases--such as Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC), superfluidity, and superconductivity--have long fascinated scientists, as they bring pure quantum effects to a macroscopic scale. BEC has, for example, famously been demonstrated in dilute atom gas of rubidium atoms at temperatures below 200 nanokelvin. Much effort has been devoted to finding a solid-state system in which BEC can take place. Promising candidate systems are semiconductor microcavities, in which photons are confined and strongly coupled to electronic excitations, leading to the creation of exciton polaritons. These bosonic quasi-particles are 10(9) times lighter than rubidium atoms, thus theoretically permitting BEC to occur at standard cryogenic temperatures. Here we detail a comprehensive set of experiments giving compelling evidence for BEC of polaritons. Above a critical density, we observe massive occupation of the ground state developing from a polariton gas at thermal equilibrium at 19 K, an increase of temporal coherence, and the build-up of long-range spatial coherence and linear polarization, all of which indicate the spontaneous onset of a macroscopic quantum phase.     

Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any previously reported case can substantially reduce the epidemic. This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary.