Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models

Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974- 2001 hindcasts obtained from the "Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction" (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June-October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction.     

The northern annular mode: More zonal symmetric than the southern annular mode

Fan （2007） recently documented the zonal asymmetry of the Antarctic oscillation （AAO） in the austral winter. In this research, the zonal asymmetry of the northern annular mode, or the Arctic oscillation （AO）, in the interannual variability is studied for the boreal winter. It is shown that there is zonal asymmetry of the AO as well, similar to the case of the Antarctic oscillation （AAO）. However, the zonal asymmetry of the AO is considerably weaker than that of the AAO. This is far beyond the speculation, since the zonal asymmetry of the geography is larger in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. The Western and Eastern Hemispheres portions of the AO are correlated at 0.54 for 1959-1998, comparing with 0.23 for the case of the AAO. The authors also discussed the physical reason for this inter-hemispheric difference, and partly attributed it to the El Ni~o and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle which may be represented by the SO index. It is indicated that the SO associated sea-level pressure （SLP） patterns are more zonal symmetric in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere.     

Ensemble projection of 1―3℃ warming in China

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1 ℃, 2℃ and 3℃ above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models （AOGCMs） for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR4）, i.e. the model outputs from the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） and from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2, are used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of the above values in China over the 21st century. The results indicate that the rate of warming varies from region to region. The above values are reached much later （earlier） when emission amount is lower （higher）, and spread of the time when the lower （higher） value is exceeded is narrower （wider） among the three scenarios. As far as the spatial pattern is concerned, the above values are crossed much earlier in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau with respect to the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and South China.     

Late Yanshan-Himalayan hydrocarbon reservoir adjustment and hydrotherrnal fluid activity in the central Tarim Basin

The adjustment of primary hydrocarbon reservoirs in marine formations is an important feature of the oil pools in the Tarim Basin. Large-scale hydrocarbon adjustment is related to the strong regional tectonic movements, which is always accompanied by extensive migration of basin fluids including diagenetic and mineralizing fluids. Organic fluid inclusions are well developed in hydrothermal minerals, such as fluorite, which have been found in the dissolution-enlarged fractures or karstification caves in the Ordovician in the central Tarim Basin. Proved by well drilling, the fluorite deposit is good reservoir for oil and gas. So the peculiar accompanied or superimposed relationship between fluorite hydrothermal fluid mineralization and hydrocarbon migration and accumulation exists in the Ordovician in the central Tarim Basin. Considering regional tectonic setting and mineralization condition,through different kinds of analytic methods including electron spin resonance dating, fluid inclusion laser Raman and colonial inclusions hydrocarbon fossil analysis, we proposed that extensive mineralizing fluids and hydrocarbon migration occurred in late Yanshan-Himalayan (110.4-30.8 Ma) period, and Himalayan, especially, is an important period for hydrocarbon accumulation from 34.3 Ma to present.     

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

This study analyses the decadal changes in winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. The results show that, together with a trend of winter warming in China, winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in the region are also increasing. In addition, concurrent with the decadal warming shift that occurred in the mid-1980s, precipitation and extreme precipitation both increased significantly. Quantitative analysis shows that precipitation and extreme precipitation increased at rates of 9.7% and 22.6% per 1℃ of surface warming in China. This rate of precipitation increase is greater than the global mean, which indicates that precipitation in China is highly sensitive to climate warming and further highlights the importance of studying regional responses to climate warming. The fact that extreme precipitation is increasing at a higher rate than precipitation implies that winter precipitation in China will increasingly be of more extreme type in the context of global warming, which could partly explain why there have recently been a number of record-breaking extreme snowfall events in China.     

微波法提取旋覆花多糖工艺研究

本文对旋覆花多糖的微波提取工艺进行了研究。结果表明各因素影响顺序是:提取时间>料液比>火力,旋覆花多糖最佳微波提取条件为按1g:70ml料液比在低火条件下浸提10min,此条件下多糖提取率为46.00mg/g。该方法可靠、简便可行,节能、省时,是提取旋覆花多糖的一种高效优质技术。     

Magnetostratigraphic dating of mammalian fossils in Junggar Basin, northwest China

The first detailed chronology for the late Oligocene to early Miocene continental record in northern Junggar Basin is presented,based on rock magnetic experiments and magnetostratigraphic investiga-tions of a 192 m thick mammal-bearing section in the Ulungur River area. Magnetites and hematites were identified as the main carriers for the characteristic remanent magnetization,and the resulting polarity sequence allows an unambiguous correlation to the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS). Furthermore,the Tieersihabahe fauna layer occurs below the Paleocene/Neocene boundary,and the Suosuoquan fauna layer is just above the Neocene onset. Therefore,the age of the Tieersihabahe fauna and Suosuoquan fauna layers can be definitely estimated to be about 25.2 Ma and 22.5 Ma,respectively.