Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

The ocean as a supplier of food and energy

Summary This paper presents the concept of raising seaweeds and other valuable organisms with the aid of huge structures (ocean farms) emplaced in the surface waters of the open oceans. Potential advantages from and difficulties to be expected in realizing the associated technologies are briefly set forth. Much of the published literature pertaining to the concept is referenced and summarized. Wave-powered upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich waters through vertical pipes extending to depths of 100–300 m is indicated as desirable. Technologies are outlined for using the harvested seaweeds to create foods and other valuable products such as animal feeds, fertilizers, fibers, plastics, synthetic natural gas (methane), and alcohol and gasoline fuels. Results from site selection studies and economic analyses are given. It appears that dynamically positioned farms orbiting with the surface current patterns typically found on the ocean will be most cost-effective. The general conclusion is stated that open ocean farming will become economically more feasible as the cheaper fossil fuels and food producing lands of the earth become increasingly consumed in the course of the next century.     

蕴涵环交换性的某些多项恒等式

设ｍ＞１，ｎ，ｐ，ｑ，ｒ，ｓ均为正整数，Ｒ是一个具有单位元１的环．证明了：如果Ｒ中的任意ｘ，ｙ满足且Ｒ具有Ｑ（ｍ）性质，则Ｒ是一个交换环．此外，在适当的条件下确立了Ｒ的交换性．     

Intermediates in the transformation of phosphonates to phosphate by bacteria

Phosphorus is an essential element for all known forms of life. In living systems, phosphorus is an integral component of nucleic acids, carbohydrates and phospholipids, where it is incorporated as a derivative of phosphate. However, most Gram-negative bacteria have the capability to use phosphonates as a nutritional source of phosphorus under conditions of phosphate starvation. In these organisms, methylphosphonate is converted to phosphate and methane. In a formal sense, this transformation is a hydrolytic cleavage of a carbon-phosphorus (C-P) bond, but a general enzymatic mechanism for the activation and conversion of alkylphosphonates to phosphate and an alkane has not been elucidated despite much effort for more than two decades. The actual mechanism for C-P bond cleavage is likely to be a radical-based transformation. In Escherichia coli, the catalytic machinery for the C-P lyase reaction has been localized to the phn gene cluster. This operon consists of the 14 genes phnC, phnD, …, phnP. Genetic and biochemical experiments have demonstrated that the genes phnG, phnH, …, phnM encode proteins that are essential for the conversion of phosphonates to phosphate and that the proteins encoded by the other genes in the operon have auxiliary functions. There are no functional annotations for any of the seven proteins considered essential for C-P bond cleavage. Here we show that methylphosphonate reacts with MgATP to form α-D-ribose-1-methylphosphonate-5-triphosphate (RPnTP) and adenine. The triphosphate moiety of RPnTP is hydrolysed to pyrophosphate and α-D-ribose-1-methylphosphonate-5-phosphate (PRPn). The C-P bond of PRPn is subsequently cleaved in a radical-based reaction producing α-D-ribose-1,2-cyclic-phosphate-5-phosphate and methane in the presence of S-adenosyl-L-methionine. Substantial quantities of phosphonates are produced worldwide for industrial processes, detergents, herbicides and pharmaceuticals. Our elucidation of the chemical steps for the biodegradation of alkylphosphonates shows how these compounds can be metabolized and recycled to phosphate.     

Interferon-γ links ultraviolet radiation to melanomagenesis in mice

Cutaneous malignant melanoma is a highly aggressive and frequently chemoresistant cancer, the incidence of which continues to rise. Epidemiological studies show that the major aetiological melanoma risk factor is ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation, with the highest risk associated with intermittent burning doses, especially during childhood. We have experimentally validated these epidemiological findings using the hepatocyte growth factor/scatter factor transgenic mouse model, which develops lesions in stages highly reminiscent of human melanoma with respect to biological, genetic and aetiological criteria, but only when irradiated as neonatal pups with UVB, not UVA. However, the mechanisms underlying UVB-initiated, neonatal-specific melanomagenesis remain largely unknown. Here we introduce a mouse model permitting fluorescence-aided melanocyte imaging and isolation following in vivo UV irradiation. We use expression profiling to show that activated neonatal skin melanocytes isolated following a melanomagenic UVB dose bear a distinct, persistent interferon response signature, including genes associated with immunoevasion. UVB-induced melanocyte activation, characterized by aberrant growth and migration, was abolished by antibody-mediated systemic blockade of interferon-γ (IFN-γ), but not type-I interferons. IFN-γ was produced by macrophages recruited to neonatal skin by UVB-induced ligands to the chemokine receptor Ccr2. Admixed recruited skin macrophages enhanced transplanted melanoma growth by inhibiting apoptosis; notably, IFN-γ blockade abolished macrophage-enhanced melanoma growth and survival. IFN-γ-producing macrophages were also identified in 70% of human melanomas examined. Our data reveal an unanticipated role for IFN-γ in promoting melanocytic cell survival/immunoevasion, identifying a novel candidate therapeutic target for a subset of melanoma patients.     

Natural polymorphisms in C. elegans HECW-1 E3 ligase affect pathogen avoidance behaviour

Heritable variation in behavioural traits generally has a complex genetic basis, and thus naturally occurring polymorphisms that influence behaviour have been defined only in rare instances. The isolation of wild strains of Caenorhabditis elegans has facilitated the study of natural genetic variation in this species and provided insights into its diverse microbial ecology. C. elegans responds to bacterial infection with conserved innate immune responses and, although lacking the immunological memory of vertebrate adaptive immunity, shows an aversive learning response to pathogenic bacteria. Here, we report the molecular characterization of naturally occurring coding polymorphisms in a C. elegans gene encoding a conserved HECT domain-containing E3 ubiquitin ligase, HECW-1. We show that two distinct polymorphisms in neighbouring residues of HECW-1 each affect C. elegans behavioural avoidance of a lawn of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Neuron-specific rescue and ablation experiments and genetic interaction analysis indicate that HECW-1 functions in a pair of sensory neurons to inhibit P. aeruginosa lawn avoidance behaviour through inhibition of the neuropeptide receptor NPR-1 (ref. 10), which we have previously shown promotes P. aeruginosa lawn avoidance behaviour. Our data establish a molecular basis for natural variation in a C. elegans behaviour that may undergo adaptive changes in response to microbial pathogens.