A hydrothermal origin for isotopically anomalous cap dolostone cements from south China

The release of methane into the atmosphere through destabilization of clathrates is a positive feedback mechanism capable of amplifying global warming trends that may have operated several times in the geological past. Such methane release is a hypothesized cause or amplifier for one of the most drastic global warming events in Earth history, the end of the Marinoan 'snowball Earth' ice age, ～635?Myr ago. A key piece of evidence supporting this hypothesis is the occurrence of exceptionally depleted carbon isotope signatures (δ(13)C(PDB) down to -48‰; ref. 8) in post-glacial cap dolostones (that is, dolostone overlying glacial deposits) from south China; these signatures have been interpreted as products of methane oxidation at the time of deposition. Here we show, on the basis of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry, (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotope ratios, trace element content and clay mineral evidence, that carbonates bearing the (13)C-depleted signatures crystallized more than 1.6?Myr after deposition of the cap dolostone. Our results indicate that highly (13)C-depleted carbonate cements grew from hydrothermal fluids and suggest that their carbon isotope signatures are a consequence of thermogenic methane oxidation at depth. This finding not only negates carbon isotope evidence for methane release during Marinoan deglaciation in south China, but also eliminates the only known occurrence of a Precambrian sedimentary carbonate with highly (13)C-depleted signatures related to methane oxidation in a seep environment. We propose that the capacity to form highly (13)C-depleted seep carbonates, through biogenic anaeorobic oxidation of methane using sulphate, was limited in the Precambrian period by low sulphate concentrations in sea water. As a consequence, although clathrate destabilization may or may not have had a role in the exit from the 'snowball' state, it would not have left extreme carbon isotope signals in cap dolostones.     

Zero steady-states electrical energy consumption clutch system

A new clutch configuration with dual diaphragm spring is proposed. It is proper designed for electric and hybrid powertrain system. With this design, the clutch engagement is controlled by current in electromagnet coil. For special characteristic of dual diaphragm spring, the clutch does not consume energy in steady state after engaging or disengaging. To validate the feasibility of this design, author builds the mathematical model and imports it into MATLAB Simulink. The simulation shows the behavior of clutch in different control strategies.     

Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom

Migration is one of the most unpredictable demographic processes. The aim of this article is to provide a blueprint for assessing various possible forecasting approaches in order to help safeguard producers and users of official migration statistics against misguided forecasts. To achieve that, we first evaluate the various existing approaches to modelling and forecasting of international migration flows. Subsequently, we present an empirical comparison of ex post performance of various forecasting methods, applied to international migration to and from the United Kingdom. The overarching goal is to assess the uncertainty of forecasts produced by using different forecasting methods, both in terms of their errors (biases) and calibration of uncertainty. The empirical assessment, comparing the results of various forecasting models against past migration estimates, confirms the intuition about weak predictability of migration, but also highlights varying levels of forecast errors for different migration streams. There is no single forecasting approach that would be well suited for different flows. We therefore recommend adopting a tailored approach to forecasts, and applying a risk management framework to their results, taking into account the levels of uncertainty of the individual flows, as well as the differences in their potential societal impact.