Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用基因芯片技术分析干旱胁迫下生殖生长期大麦的基因表达

耐旱性是干旱地区稳定和增加大麦产量的一个关键因素。鉴定出与耐旱性相关的功能基因,一方面可了解大麦的耐旱机理,同时还可以促进利用生物技术来改良大麦的耐旱性。在研究中,2个在耐旱性上具有明显差异的大麦品种Tadmor(耐旱)和WI2291(干旱敏感)被选作材料,采用22000个ESTs(基因表达序列标签)的Affymetrix大麦基因芯片Barley1来分析生殖生长期干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料的差异表达基因。研究结果表明,干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料中有77个共调节基因,其中部分基因已被报道过可能与抗旱性相关。这些基因中已有功能注释的基因按其生物学功能被分为14组,猜测它们是干旱胁迫的响应基因,在抗旱性上可能不起重要作用,或者是必需的但单独不足以提高大麦的抗旱性。进一步比较2个材料差异表达的基因,发现二材料之间有372个受干旱调节基因的差异。这些基因中有功能注释基因的生物学功能中可分为15组,其中一些已被认为与抗旱性相关;而对那些未知功能的基因,推测可能亦在大麦的抗旱性上扮演一定的角色。研究所得结果可为阐述生殖生长期大麦的耐旱性机理提供新的认识。     

The goal of explanation

I defend the claim that understanding is the goal of explanation against various persistent criticisms, especially the criticism that understanding is not truth-connected in the appropriate way, and hence is a merely psychological (rather than epistemic) state. Part of the reason why understanding has been dismissed as the goal of explanation, I suggest, is because the psychological dimension of the goal of explanation has itself been almost entirely neglected. In turn, the psychological dimension of understanding—the Aha! experience, the sense that a certain explanation “feels right”, and so on—has been conspicuously overemphasized. I try to correct for both of these exaggerations. Just as the goal of explanation includes a richer psychological—including phenomenological—dimension than is generally acknowledged, so too understanding has a stronger truth connection than is generally acknowledged.     

Aberrant O-glycosylation and anti-glycan antibodies in an autoimmune disease IgA nephropathy and breast adenocarcinoma

Glycosylation abnormalities have been observed in autoimmune diseases and cancer. Here, we compare mechanisms of aberrant O-glycosylation, i.e., formation of Tn and sialyl-Tn structures, on MUC1 in breast cancer, and on IgA1 in an autoimmune disease, IgA nephropathy. The pathways of aberrant O-glycosylation, although different for MUC1 and IgA1, include dysregulation in glycosyltransferase expression, stability, and/or intracellular localization. Moreover, these aberrant glycoproteins are recognized by antibodies, although with different consequences. In breast cancer, elevated levels of antibodies recognizing aberrant MUC1 are associated with better outcome, whereas in IgA nephropathy, the antibodies recognizing aberrant IgA1 are part of the pathogenetic process.     

Ablation of cyclase-associated protein 2 (CAP2) leads to cardiomyopathy

Cyclase-associated proteins are highly conserved proteins that have a role in the regulation of actin dynamics. Higher eukaryotes have two isoforms, CAP1 and CAP2. To study the in vivo function of CAP2, we generated mice in which the CAP2 gene was inactivated by a gene-trap approach. Mutant mice showed a decrease in body weight and had a decreased survival rate. Further, they developed a severe cardiac defect marked by dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) associated with drastic reduction in basal heart rate and prolongations in atrial and ventricular conduction times. Moreover, CAP2-deficient myofibrils exhibited reduced cooperativity of calcium-regulated force development. At the microscopic level, we observed disarrayed sarcomeres with development of fibrosis. We analyzed CAP2’s role in actin assembly and found that it sequesters G-actin and efficiently fragments filaments. This activity resides completely in its WASP homology domain. Thus CAP2 is an essential component of the myocardial sarcomere and is essential for physiological functioning of the cardiac system, and a deficiency leads to DCM and various cardiac defects.     

The influence of home environmental factors and life style on children＇s respiratory health in Xi＇an

To assess associations between home indoor air environments and asthma,allergies and pneumonia,children aged 1–8 years were surveyed from 12 kindergartens in the city of Xi’an.2,020 questionnaires were responded with a response rate of 83.5%.The prevalences of doctor diagnosed asthma,hay fever,and pneumonia were 2.9%,3.6%,and 28.3%,respectively.Living close to a highway was a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.5,95%CI 1.2–1.8),eczema(AOR 1.7,95%CI 1.2–2.5),and diagnosed pneumonia(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.6).Dampness problems in the home were associated with 50%–130%increases in the prevalences of asthma and allergy.Airing bed linen under sun-shine was protective,especially against rhinitis.Pet avoidance was consistently and significantly associated with asthma and allergy(AOR 1.3–2.4).Decoration of the home during children’s early life is a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.9,95%CI 1.3–2.9)and eczema(AOR 1.9,95%CI1.1–3.6).Risk factors for pneumonia were living in an apartment(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.8),latex wall paint(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),dampness(AOR 1.4–1.5),breast feeding\3 months(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),never airing bed linen in sunshine(AOR 1.3,95%CI1.3–1.6),and cleaning children’s room less frequently than once per day(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.7).This study demonstrates that home indoor environmental and life style factors may influence the health of children in Xi’an.     

Resolvin E1 and protectin D1 activate inflammation-resolution programmes

Resolution of acute inflammation is an active process essential for appropriate host responses, tissue protection and the return to homeostasis. During resolution, specific omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty-acid-derived mediators are generated within resolving exudates, including resolvin E1 (RvE1) and protectin D1 (PD1). It is thus important to pinpoint specific actions of RvE1 and PD1 in regulating tissue resolution. Here we report that RvE1 and PD1 in nanogram quantities promote phagocyte removal during acute inflammation by regulating leukocyte infiltration, increasing macrophage ingestion of apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils in vivo and in vitro, and enhancing the appearance of phagocytes carrying engulfed zymosan in lymph nodes and spleen. In this tissue terrain, inhibition of either cyclooxygenase or lipoxygenases--pivotal enzymes in the temporal generation of both pro-inflammatory and pro-resolving mediators--caused a 'resolution deficit' that was rescued by RvE1, PD1 or aspirin-triggered lipoxin A4 analogue. Also, new resolution routes were identified that involve phagocytes traversing perinodal adipose tissues and non-apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils carrying engulfed zymosan to lymph nodes. Together, these results identify new active components for postexudate resolution traffic, and demonstrate that RvE1 and PD1 are potent agonists for resolution of inflamed tissues.