Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Energetic landscape of alpha-lytic protease optimizes longevity through kinetic stability.

During the evolution of proteins the pressure to optimize biological activity is moderated by a need for efficient folding. For most proteins, this is accomplished through spontaneous folding to a thermodynamically stable and active native state. However, in the extracellular bacterial alpha-lytic protease (alphaLP) these two processes have become decoupled. The native state of alphaLP is thermodynamically unstable, and when denatured, requires millennia (t1/2 approximately 1,800 years) to refold. Folding is made possible by an attached folding catalyst, the pro-region, which is degraded on completion of folding, leaving alphaLP trapped in its native state by a large kinetic unfolding barrier (t1/2 approximately 1.2 years). alphaLP faces two very different folding landscapes: one in the presence of the pro-region controlling folding, and one in its absence restricting unfolding. Here we demonstrate that this separation of folding and unfolding pathways has removed constraints placed on the folding of thermodynamically stable proteins, and allowed the evolution of a native state having markedly reduced dynamic fluctuations. This, in turn, has led to a significant extension of the functional lifetime of alphaLP by the optimal suppression of proteolytic sensitivity.     

Acetylation-dependent regulation of endothelial Notch signalling by the SIRT1 deacetylase

Notch signalling is a key intercellular communication mechanism that is essential for cell specification and tissue patterning, and which coordinates critical steps of blood vessel growth. Although subtle alterations in Notch activity suffice to elicit profound differences in endothelial behaviour and blood vessel formation, little is known about the regulation and adaptation of endothelial Notch responses. Here we report that the NAD(+)-dependent deacetylase SIRT1 acts as an intrinsic negative modulator of Notch signalling in endothelial cells. We show that acetylation of the Notch1 intracellular domain (NICD) on conserved lysines controls the amplitude and duration of Notch responses by altering NICD protein turnover. SIRT1 associates with NICD and functions as a NICD deacetylase, which opposes the acetylation-induced NICD stabilization. Consequently, endothelial cells lacking SIRT1 activity are sensitized to Notch signalling, resulting in impaired growth, sprout elongation and enhanced Notch target gene expression in response to DLL4 stimulation, thereby promoting a non-sprouting, stalk-cell-like phenotype. In vivo, inactivation of Sirt1 in zebrafish and mice causes reduced vascular branching and density as a consequence of enhanced Notch signalling. Our findings identify reversible acetylation of the NICD as a molecular mechanism to adapt the dynamics of Notch signalling, and indicate that SIRT1 acts as rheostat to fine-tune endothelial Notch responses.     

A common variant associated with prostate cancer in European and African populations

With the increasing incidence of prostate cancer, identifying common genetic variants that confer risk of the disease is important. Here we report such a variant on chromosome 8q24, a region initially identified through a study of Icelandic families. Allele -8 of the microsatellite DG8S737 was associated with prostate cancer in three case-control series of European ancestry from Iceland, Sweden and the US. The estimated odds ratio (OR) of the allele is 1.62 (P = 2.7 x 10(-11)). About 19% of affected men and 13% of the general population carry at least one copy, yielding a population attributable risk (PAR) of approximately 8%. The association was also replicated in an African American case-control group with a similar OR, in which 41% of affected individuals and 30% of the population are carriers. This leads to a greater estimated PAR (16%) that may contribute to higher incidence of prostate cancer in African American men than in men of European ancestry.