Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Failure of somatostatin to influence experimental tumor cell growth in vivo and in vitro

Summary The influence of somatostatin on tumor cell growth was studied in vivo in mice (sarcoma 180 ascites tumor and Lewis lung tumor) and in vitro on nontransformed and polyoma-transformed cell lines. 4 or 20 g/100 g of cyclic somatostatin and 4 g/100 g of linear protamin Zn-bound somatostatin were injected s.c. twice daily in the in vivo study. Cyclic somatostatin (1, 4 or 10 g/ml) was added twice daily to the cell cultures. Somatostatin administration influenced neither the survival of animals nor the growth rate of cultured cell lines. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A2025117 00011     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

Strong dipolar effects in a quantum ferrofluid

Symmetry-breaking interactions have a crucial role in many areas of physics, ranging from classical ferrofluids to superfluid (3)He and d-wave superconductivity. For superfluid quantum gases, a variety of new physical phenomena arising from the symmetry-breaking interaction between electric or magnetic dipoles are expected. Novel quantum phases in optical lattices, such as chequerboard or supersolid phases, are predicted for dipolar bosons. Dipolar interactions can also enrich considerably the physics of quantum gases with internal degrees of freedom. Arrays of dipolar particles could be used for efficient quantum information processing. Here we report the realization of a chromium Bose-Einstein condensate with strong dipolar interactions. By using a Feshbach resonance, we reduce the usual isotropic contact interaction, such that the anisotropic magnetic dipole-dipole interaction between 52Cr atoms becomes comparable in strength. This induces a change of the aspect ratio of the atom cloud; for strong dipolar interactions, the inversion of ellipticity during expansion (the usual 'smoking gun' evidence for a Bose-Einstein condensate) can be suppressed. These effects are accounted for by taking into account the dipolar interaction in the superfluid hydrodynamic equations governing the dynamics of the gas, in the same way as classical ferrofluids can be described by including dipolar terms in the classical hydrodynamic equations. Our results are a first step in the exploration of the unique properties of quantum ferrofluids.     

14-3-3sigma controls mitotic translation to facilitate cytokinesis

14-3-3 proteins are crucial in a wide variety of cellular responses including cell cycle progression, DNA damage checkpoints and apoptosis. One particular 14-3-3 isoform, sigma, is a p53-responsive gene, the function of which is frequently lost in human tumours, including breast and prostate cancers as a result of either hypermethylation of the 14-3-3sigma promoter or induction of an oestrogen-responsive ubiquitin ligase that specifically targets 14-3-3sigma for proteasomal degradation. Loss of 14-3-3sigma protein occurs not only within the tumours themselves but also in the surrounding pre-dysplastic tissue (so-called field cancerization), indicating that 14-3-3sigma might have an important tumour suppressor function that becomes lost early in the process of tumour evolution. The molecular basis for the tumour suppressor function of 14-3-3sigma is unknown. Here we report a previously unknown function for 14-3-3sigma as a regulator of mitotic translation through its direct mitosis-specific binding to a variety of translation/initiation factors, including eukaryotic initiation factor 4B in a stoichiometric manner. Cells lacking 14-3-3sigma, in marked contrast to normal cells, cannot suppress cap-dependent translation and do not stimulate cap-independent translation during and immediately after mitosis. This defective switch in the mechanism of translation results in reduced mitotic-specific expression of the endogenous internal ribosomal entry site (IRES)-dependent form of the cyclin-dependent kinase Cdk11 (p58 PITSLRE), leading to impaired cytokinesis, loss of Polo-like kinase-1 at the midbody, and the accumulation of binucleate cells. The aberrant mitotic phenotype of 14-3-3sigma-depleted cells can be rescued by forced expression of p58 PITSLRE or by extinguishing cap-dependent translation and increasing cap-independent translation during mitosis by using rapamycin. Our findings show how aberrant mitotic translation in the absence of 14-3-3sigma impairs mitotic exit to generate binucleate cells and provides a potential explanation of how 14-3-3sigma-deficient cells may progress on the path to aneuploidy and tumorigenesis.     

Adaptive subwavelength control of nano-optical fields

Adaptive shaping of the phase and amplitude of femtosecond laser pulses has been developed into an efficient tool for the directed manipulation of interference phenomena, thus providing coherent control over various quantum-mechanical systems. Temporal resolution in the femtosecond or even attosecond range has been demonstrated, but spatial resolution is limited by diffraction to approximately half the wavelength of the light field (that is, several hundred nanometres). Theory has indicated that the spatial limitation to coherent control can be overcome with the illumination of nanostructures: the spatial near-field distribution was shown to depend on the linear chirp of an irradiating laser pulse. An extension of this idea to adaptive control, combining multiparameter pulse shaping with a learning algorithm, demonstrated the generation of user-specified optical near-field distributions in an optimal and flexible fashion. Shaping of the polarization of the laser pulse provides a particularly efficient and versatile nano-optical manipulation method. Here we demonstrate the feasibility of this concept experimentally, by tailoring the optical near field in the vicinity of silver nanostructures through adaptive polarization shaping of femtosecond laser pulses and then probing the lateral field distribution by two-photon photoemission electron microscopy. In this combination of adaptive control and nano-optics, we achieve subwavelength dynamic localization of electromagnetic intensity on the nanometre scale and thus overcome the spatial restrictions of conventional optics. This experimental realization of theoretical suggestions opens a number of perspectives in coherent control, nano-optics, nonlinear spectroscopy, and other research fields in which optical investigations are carried out with spatial or temporal resolution.     

Habitat-induced reciprocal transformation in the root phenotype of Oriental ginseng is associated with alteration in DNA methylation

Oriental ginseng is an important medicinal plant that grows in 2 major forms or ecotypes, wild and domesticated. Each form differs conspicuously in root phenotype, but can be converted from one type to another by habitat. Here we show that the habitat-induced transformation of ginseng root phenotype was accompanied by alteration in cytosine methylation at a large number of 5′-CCGG-3′ sites detected by the methylation-sensitive polymorphism (MSAP) marker. The collective CG and CHG methylation levels of all 4 landraces of the domesticated form were significantly lower than those of the wild form. Interestingly, artificially transplanted ginseng plants recreated in both directions the methylation levels (at least in CHG) of their natural counterparts. The methylation differences between the 2 ginseng ecotypes were validated at 2 isolated MSAP loci bearing homology to a 5S rRNA gene or a copia retrotransposon. Our results implicate a link between epigenetic variation and habitat-induced phenotypic flexibility in Oriental ginseng.