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1.
Christian Schumacher 《Journal of forecasting》2002,21(8):543-558
This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Christian Dölle Marc Niere Emilia Lohndal Mathias Ziegler 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》2010,67(3):433-443
Poly-ADP-ribose polymerases (PARPs) use NAD+ as substrate to generate polymers of ADP-ribose. We targeted the catalytic domain of human PARP1 as molecular NAD+ detector into cellular organelles. Immunochemical detection of polymers demonstrated distinct subcellular NAD+ pools in mitochondria, peroxisomes and, surprisingly, in the endoplasmic reticulum and the Golgi complex. Polymers did not
accumulate within the mitochondrial intermembrane space or the cytosol. We demonstrate the suitability of this compartment-specific
NAD+ and poly-ADP-ribose turnover to establish intra-organellar protein localization. For overexpressed proteins, genetically
endowed with PARP activity, detection of polymers indicates segregation from the cytosol and consequently intra-organellar
residence. In mitochondria, polymer build-up reveals matrix localization of the PARP fusion protein. Compared to presently
used fusion tags for subcellular protein localization, these are substantial improvements in resolution. We thus established
a novel molecular tool applicable for studies of subcellular NAD metabolism and protein localization. 相似文献
3.
This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification. 相似文献
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Wilker EW van Vugt MA Artim SA Huang PH Petersen CP Reinhardt HC Feng Y Sharp PA Sonenberg N White FM Yaffe MB 《Nature》2007,446(7133):329-332
14-3-3 proteins are crucial in a wide variety of cellular responses including cell cycle progression, DNA damage checkpoints and apoptosis. One particular 14-3-3 isoform, sigma, is a p53-responsive gene, the function of which is frequently lost in human tumours, including breast and prostate cancers as a result of either hypermethylation of the 14-3-3sigma promoter or induction of an oestrogen-responsive ubiquitin ligase that specifically targets 14-3-3sigma for proteasomal degradation. Loss of 14-3-3sigma protein occurs not only within the tumours themselves but also in the surrounding pre-dysplastic tissue (so-called field cancerization), indicating that 14-3-3sigma might have an important tumour suppressor function that becomes lost early in the process of tumour evolution. The molecular basis for the tumour suppressor function of 14-3-3sigma is unknown. Here we report a previously unknown function for 14-3-3sigma as a regulator of mitotic translation through its direct mitosis-specific binding to a variety of translation/initiation factors, including eukaryotic initiation factor 4B in a stoichiometric manner. Cells lacking 14-3-3sigma, in marked contrast to normal cells, cannot suppress cap-dependent translation and do not stimulate cap-independent translation during and immediately after mitosis. This defective switch in the mechanism of translation results in reduced mitotic-specific expression of the endogenous internal ribosomal entry site (IRES)-dependent form of the cyclin-dependent kinase Cdk11 (p58 PITSLRE), leading to impaired cytokinesis, loss of Polo-like kinase-1 at the midbody, and the accumulation of binucleate cells. The aberrant mitotic phenotype of 14-3-3sigma-depleted cells can be rescued by forced expression of p58 PITSLRE or by extinguishing cap-dependent translation and increasing cap-independent translation during mitosis by using rapamycin. Our findings show how aberrant mitotic translation in the absence of 14-3-3sigma impairs mitotic exit to generate binucleate cells and provides a potential explanation of how 14-3-3sigma-deficient cells may progress on the path to aneuploidy and tumorigenesis. 相似文献
8.
Aeschlimann M Bauer M Bayer D Brixner T García de Abajo FJ Pfeiffer W Rohmer M Spindler C Steeb F 《Nature》2007,446(7133):301-304
Adaptive shaping of the phase and amplitude of femtosecond laser pulses has been developed into an efficient tool for the directed manipulation of interference phenomena, thus providing coherent control over various quantum-mechanical systems. Temporal resolution in the femtosecond or even attosecond range has been demonstrated, but spatial resolution is limited by diffraction to approximately half the wavelength of the light field (that is, several hundred nanometres). Theory has indicated that the spatial limitation to coherent control can be overcome with the illumination of nanostructures: the spatial near-field distribution was shown to depend on the linear chirp of an irradiating laser pulse. An extension of this idea to adaptive control, combining multiparameter pulse shaping with a learning algorithm, demonstrated the generation of user-specified optical near-field distributions in an optimal and flexible fashion. Shaping of the polarization of the laser pulse provides a particularly efficient and versatile nano-optical manipulation method. Here we demonstrate the feasibility of this concept experimentally, by tailoring the optical near field in the vicinity of silver nanostructures through adaptive polarization shaping of femtosecond laser pulses and then probing the lateral field distribution by two-photon photoemission electron microscopy. In this combination of adaptive control and nano-optics, we achieve subwavelength dynamic localization of electromagnetic intensity on the nanometre scale and thus overcome the spatial restrictions of conventional optics. This experimental realization of theoretical suggestions opens a number of perspectives in coherent control, nano-optics, nonlinear spectroscopy, and other research fields in which optical investigations are carried out with spatial or temporal resolution. 相似文献
9.
Oxysterols direct immune cell migration via EBI2 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hannedouche S Zhang J Yi T Shen W Nguyen D Pereira JP Guerini D Baumgarten BU Roggo S Wen B Knochenmuss R Noël S Gessier F Kelly LM Vanek M Laurent S Preuss I Miault C Christen I Karuna R Li W Koo DI Suply T Schmedt C Peters EC Falchetto R Katopodis A Spanka C Roy MO Detheux M Chen YA Schultz PG Cho CY Seuwen K Cyster JG Sailer AW 《Nature》2011,475(7357):524-527
Epstein-Barr virus-induced gene 2 (EBI2, also known as GPR183) is a G-protein-coupled receptor that is required for humoral immune responses; polymorphisms in the receptor have been associated with inflammatory autoimmune diseases. The natural ligand for EBI2 has been unknown. Here we describe the identification of 7α,25-dihydroxycholesterol (also called 7α,25-OHC or 5-cholesten-3β,7α,25-triol) as a potent and selective agonist of EBI2. Functional activation of human EBI2 by 7α,25-OHC and closely related oxysterols was verified by monitoring second messenger readouts and saturable, high-affinity radioligand binding. Furthermore, we find that 7α,25-OHC and closely related oxysterols act as chemoattractants for immune cells expressing EBI2 by directing cell migration in vitro and in vivo. A critical enzyme required for the generation of 7α,25-OHC is cholesterol 25-hydroxylase (CH25H). Similar to EBI2 receptor knockout mice, mice deficient in CH25H fail to position activated B cells within the spleen to the outer follicle and mount a reduced plasma cell response after an immune challenge. This demonstrates that CH25H generates EBI2 biological activity in vivo and indicates that the EBI2-oxysterol signalling pathway has an important role in the adaptive immune response. 相似文献
10.
Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming. 相似文献