On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Stock loan valuation under a regime-switching model with mean-reverting and finite maturity

<正> Stock loans are business contracts between borrowers and lenders in which the borroweruses shares of stock as collateral for the loan.Since the value of the collateral is subject to wide andfrequent price swings,valuing such a transaction behaves more like an option pricing problem thana debt valuation problem.This paper will list,prove,and analyze formulas for stock loan valuationwith finite horizon under various stock models,including classical geometric Brownian motion,meanreverting,and two-state regime-switching with both mean-reverting and geometric Brownian motionstates.Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the results.     

Creating Action Research Quality in Organization Development: Rigorous,Reflective and Relevant

The purpose of the paper is to present a framework that enables action researchers to create quality action research projects within the organization development (OD) domain using the broad criteria of being rigorous, reflective and relevant and so contribute to the realm of practical knowing. What constitutes good quality action research within OD is a difficult question, given the broad range of approaches that operates in a wide variety of settings and with great diversity. It advances specific dimensions by which action researchers can create, review and assess quality in action research work. This integrative framework and criteria are practical tools to enable action researchers to create quality action research in OD.     

Is chlamydial heat shock protein 60 a risk factor for oncogenesis?

Heat shock protein 60 (HSP60) plays an important role in the protein folding of prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. Most of the papers published on chlamydial HSP60 concern its role in immune response during infection. In the last decade, exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis has been consistently associated with the development of cervical and ovarian cancer. Moreover, it has been suggested that chlamydial HSP60 may have an anti-apoptotic effect during persistent infection. We hypothesize that the accumulation of exogenous chlamydial HSP60 in the cytoplasm of actively replicating eukaryotic cells may interfere with the regulation of the apoptotic pathway. The concomitant expression of viral oncoproteins and/or the presence of mutations may lead to the ability to survive apoptotic stimuli, loss of replicative senescence, uncontrolled proliferation and, finally neoplastic transformation.Received 15 August 2004; received after revision 1 October 2004; accepted 7 October 2004     

Measuring and locating zones of chaos and irregularity

The new measures computed here are the spectral detrended fluctuation anatysls （sDFA） and spectral multi-taper method （sMTM）. sDFA applies the standard detrended fluctuation analysis （DFA） algorithm to power spectra, sMTM exploits the minute increases in the broadband response, typical of chaotic spectra approaching optimal values. The authors chose the Brusselator, Lorenz, and Duffing as the proposed models to measure and locate chaos and severe irregularity. Their series of chaotic parametric responses in short time-series is advantageous. Where cycles have only a limited number of slow oscillations such as for systems biology and medicine. It is difficult to create, locate, or monitor chaos. From 50 linearly increasing starting points applied to the chaos target function （CTF）; the mean percentage increases in Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy （KS-Entropy） for the proposed chosen models; and p-values when the models were compared statistically by Kruskal-Wallis and ANOVA1 test with distributions assumed normal are Duffing （CTF： 31%： p 〈0.03）; Lorenz （CTF： 2%： p 〈0.03）, and I3russelator （CTF： 8%： p 〈0.01）. Principal component analysis （PCA） is applied to assess the significance of the objective functions for tuning the chaotic response. From PCA the conclusion is that CTF is the most beneficial objective function overall delivering the highest increases in mean KS-Entropy.     

2010 BP Oil Spill and the Systemic Construct of the Gulf Coast Shrimp Supply Chain

On April 20, 2010, the blast on the rig Deepwater Horizon, and the ensuing disaster known as the BP oil spill, has disrupted the Gulf Coast Shrimp supply chain. Six elements of the systemic supply and demand side of that supply chain are identified and discussed. On the supply side are shrimpers, processors, wholesalers, retailers, and restaurants. On the demand side is the consumer. Qualitative investigative methods shed light upon the systemic practice within the gulf coast shrimp industry in the United States.