Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

泰国中-新生代热带植物木化石研究

泰国东北部柯叻府及邻区中-新生代木化石非常丰富并保存有完好的解剖构造,是探究热带植被历史、古气候演化以及古环境变迁等问题的重要实证材料.最近的野外调查和专题研究确认该地区中-新生代木化石11科19属约50个种或种级分类单元,分别隶属于裸子植物和被子植物两大分类群,其中有5科7属20种(包括未定种)为前人在泰国未曾报道的类型.当前木材化石群揭示出在中生代后期,泰国东北部热带针叶树植被以南洋杉科为主;在中新世-更新世时期,该地区主要发育落叶和常绿阔叶树植被,代表热带气候环境.     

How People Use Rich Pictures to Help Them Think and Act

Groups of all kinds are complex organisations. To understand them and to facilitate them in process terms is a matter of rich and diverse discourse in varied fields from sustainable development to coastal ecology; from bandwidth in rural communities to health service provision. How to allow groups to discourse, problem solve and review their own issues and concerns? Diagrams in general and rich pictures in particular can be great means to allow groups to explore their subconscious, their occult sentiments and conflicted understandings. This paper explores and explains diverse use of pictures and shows how they can be applied and understood in group processes of all kinds.     

Bypassing genomic imprinting allows seed development

In developing progeny of mammals the two parental genomes are differentially expressed according to imprinting marks, and embryos with only a uniparental genetic contribution die. Gene expression that is dependent on the parent of origin has also been observed in the offspring of flowering plants, and mutations in the imprinting machinery lead to embryonic lethality, primarily affecting the development of the endosperm-a structure in the seed that nourishes the embryo, analogous to the function of the mammalian placenta. Here we have generated Arabidopsis thaliana seeds in which the endosperm is of uniparental, that is, maternal, origin. We demonstrate that imprinting in developing seeds can be bypassed and viable albeit smaller seedlings can develop from seeds lacking a paternal contribution to the endosperm. Bypassing is only possible if the mother is mutant for any of the FIS-class genes, which encode Polycomb group chromatin-modifying factors. Thus, these data provide functional evidence that the action of the FIS complex balances the contribution of the paternal genome. As flowering plants have evolved a special reproduction system with a parallel fusion of two female with two male gametes, our findings support the hypothesis that only with the evolution of double fertilization did the action of the FIS genes become a requirement for seed development. Furthermore, our data argue for a gametophytic origin of endosperm in flowering plants, thereby supporting a hypothesis raised in 1900 by Eduard Strasburger.     

Non-volcanic tremor driven by large transient shear stresses

Non-impulsive seismic radiation or 'tremor' has long been observed at volcanoes and more recently around subduction zones. Although the number of observations of non-volcanic tremor is steadily increasing, the causative mechanism remains unclear. Some have attributed non-volcanic tremor to the movement of fluids, while its coincidence with geodetically observed slow-slip events at regular intervals has led others to consider slip on the plate interface as its cause. Low-frequency earthquakes in Japan, which are believed to make up at least part of non-volcanic tremor, have focal mechanisms and locations that are consistent with tremor being generated by shear slip on the subduction interface. In Cascadia, however, tremor locations appear to be more distributed in depth than in Japan, making them harder to reconcile with a plate interface shear-slip model. Here we identify bursts of tremor that radiated from the Cascadia subduction zone near Vancouver Island, Canada, during the strongest shaking from the moment magnitude M(w) = 7.8, 2002 Denali, Alaska, earthquake. Tremor occurs when the Love wave displacements are to the southwest (the direction of plate convergence of the overriding plate), implying that the Love waves trigger the tremor. We show that these displacements correspond to shear stresses of approximately 40 kPa on the plate interface, which suggests that the effective stress on the plate interface is very low. These observations indicate that tremor and possibly slow slip can be instantaneously induced by shear stress increases on the subduction interface-effectively a frictional failure response to the driving stress.     

Structural basis for cofactor-independent dioxygenation in vancomycin biosynthesis

Enzyme-catalysed oxidations are some of the most common transformations in primary and secondary metabolism. The vancomycin biosynthetic enzyme DpgC belongs to a small class of oxygenation enzymes that are not dependent on an accessory cofactor or metal ion. The detailed mechanism of cofactor-independent oxygenases has not been established. Here we report the first structure of an enzyme of this oxygenase class in complex with a bound substrate mimic. The use of a designed, synthetic substrate analogue allows unique insights into the chemistry of oxygen activation. The structure confirms the absence of cofactors, and electron density consistent with molecular oxygen is present adjacent to the site of oxidation on the substrate. Molecular oxygen is bound in a small hydrophobic pocket and the substrate provides the reducing power to activate oxygen for downstream chemical steps. Our results resolve the unique and complex chemistry of DpgC, a key enzyme in the biosynthetic pathway of an important class of antibiotics. Furthermore, mechanistic parallels exist between DpgC and cofactor-dependent flavoenzymes, providing information regarding the general mechanism of enzymatic oxygen activation.     

No extreme bipolar glaciation during the main Eocene calcite compensation shift

Major ice sheets were permanently established on Antarctica approximately 34 million years ago, close to the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, at the same time as a permanent deepening of the calcite compensation depth in the world's oceans. Until recently, it was thought that Northern Hemisphere glaciation began much later, between 11 and 5 million years ago. This view has been challenged, however, by records of ice rafting at high northern latitudes during the Eocene epoch and by estimates of global ice volume that exceed the storage capacity of Antarctica at the same time as a temporary deepening of the calcite compensation depth approximately 41.6 million years ago. Here we test the hypothesis that large ice sheets were present in both hemispheres approximately 41.6 million years ago using marine sediment records of oxygen and carbon isotope values and of calcium carbonate content from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. These records allow, at most, an ice budget that can easily be accommodated on Antarctica, indicating that large ice sheets were not present in the Northern Hemisphere. The records also reveal a brief interval shortly before the temporary deepening of the calcite compensation depth during which the calcite compensation depth shoaled, ocean temperatures increased and carbon isotope values decreased in the equatorial Atlantic. The nature of these changes around 41.6 million years ago implies common links, in terms of carbon cycling, with events at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and with the 'hyperthermals' of the Early Eocene climate optimum. Our findings help to resolve the apparent discrepancy between the geological records of Northern Hemisphere glaciation and model results that indicate that the threshold for continental glaciation was crossed earlier in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.     

p15Ink4b is a critical tumour suppressor in the absence of p16Ink4a

The CDKN2b-CDKN2a locus on chromosome 9p21 in human (chromosome 4 in mouse) is frequently lost in cancer. The locus encodes three cell cycle inhibitory proteins: p15INK4b encoded by CDKN2b, p16INK4a encoded by CDKN2a and p14ARF (p19Arf in mice) encoded by an alternative reading frame of CDKN2a (ref. 1). Whereas the tumour suppressor functions for p16INK4a and p14ARF have been firmly established, the role of p15INK4b remains ambiguous. However, many 9p21 deletions also remove CDKN2b, so we hypothesized a synergistic effect of the combined deficiency for p15INK4b, p14ARF and p16INK4a. Here we report that mice deficient for all three open reading frames (Cdkn2ab-/-) are more tumour-prone and develop a wider spectrum of tumours than Cdkn2a mutant mice, with a preponderance of skin tumours and soft tissue sarcomas (for example, mesothelioma) frequently composed of mixed cell types and often showing biphasic differentiation. Cdkn2ab-/- mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) are substantially more sensitive to oncogenic transformation than Cdkn2a mutant MEFs. Under conditions of stress, p15Ink4b protein levels are significantly elevated in MEFs deficient for p16Ink4a. Our data indicate that p15Ink4b can fulfil a critical backup function for p16Ink4a and provide an explanation for the frequent loss of the complete CDKN2b-CDKN2a locus in human tumours.