On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Clustering the rows and columns of a contingency table

A number of ways of investigating heterogeneity in a two-way contingency table are reviewed. In particular, we consider chi-square decompositions of the Pearson chi-square statistic with respect to the nodes of a hierarchical clustering of the rows and/or the columns of the table. A cut-off point which indicates significant clustering may be defined on the binary trees associated with the respective row and column cluster analyses. This approach provides a simple graphical procedure which is useful in interpreting a significant chi-square statistic of a contingency table.The author gratefully acknowledges the constructive comments of the referees and the editor.     

Error rates in quadratic discrimination with constraints on the covariance matrices

In multivariate discrimination of several normal populations, the optimal classification procedure is based on quadratic discriminant functions. We compare expected error rates of the quadratic classification procedure if the covariance matrices are estimated under the following four models: (i) arbitrary covariance matrices, (ii) common principal components, (iii) proportional covariance matrices, and (iv) identical covariance matrices. Using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate expected error rates, we study the performance of the four discrimination procedures for five different parameter setups corresponding to standard situations that have been used in the literature. The procedures are examined for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 60, and for two to four groups. Our results quantify the extent to which a parsimonious method reduces error rates, and demonstrate that choosing a simple method of discrimination is often beneficial even if the underlying model assumptions are wrong.The authors wish to thank the editor and three referees for their helpful comments on the first draft of this article. M. J. Schmid supported by grants no. 2.724-0.85 and 2.038-0.86 of the Swiss National Science Foundation.     

The structure of amoorastatone and the cytotoxic limonoid 12-hydroxyamoorastatin

Summary 2 new limonoid-type terpenes have been isolated from an aqueous extract of seeds produced by the Eastern Himalayan (India) plantAphanamixis grandifolia Bl. By interpreting principally mass spectral and nuclear magnetic resonance data, the structures of 12-hydroxyamoorastatin (2b) and amoorastatone (3) were elucidated. Unequivocal evidence for the 12-hydroxyamoorastatin structural assignment was obtained by chemical conversion to sendanin (4). Amoorastatin derivative2b was found to significantly inhibit growth of the murine P388 lymphocytic leukemia cell lines but amoorastatone in the same system was inactive. In a comparative biological study, sendanin (4) and anthothecol (7) were also found significantly to inhibit growth of the P388 cell line, while rohitukin (8) and limonin (9) were found to be inactive.Part 63 of the series Antineoplastic Agents. For the previous contribution refer to G.R. Pettit, T.S. Krupa and R.M. Reynolds, Int. J. Peptide Protein Res., in preparation. The present investigation was supported in part by Public Health Research Grant No. CA-16049-05 from the National Cancer Institute, the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, Mrs Mary Dell Pritzlaff, the Spencer T. and Ann W. Olin Foundation, Mr John F. Schmidt, and the Phoenix Coca-Cola Bottling Company.     

Microstructure and functional morphology of the Early Cambrian problematical fossil Rhombocorniculum

Rhombocorniculum cancellatum from the Lower Cambrian of southern Shaanxi Province (South China) is represented by the dextral and sinistral tooth-like sclerites (both in nearly equal numbers), indicating that the body plan of the organism with these sclerites probably was bilaterian. The main feature of the microstructure of the sclerites is the presence of longitudinally arranged, mutually contiguous hollow tubules, the shared walls consisting of microcrystalline apatite. In transverse cross sections, the sclerite wall mainly exhibits a spongy structure, with pore size decreasing adapically. Functional morphological analysis indicates that the sclerites serve as a defensive rather than a grasping function.     

细菌与细菌之间的信息交流--革兰氏阴性细菌的Quorum-Sensing系统

人们长期以来一直认为细菌是以单个细胞的方式生存于自然界的.但是,自从10年前研究人员发现细菌与细菌之间存在着相互间的信息交流后,人们改变了对细菌的生存方式和其生理习性的认识.细菌其实是具有协同作战能力的多细胞习性微生物,而这种能力的形成需要依赖细胞与细胞之间的信息交流.细菌之间的信息交流涉及到细菌的多种生理功能、细菌致病能力以及细菌对抗菌素的耐药等方面.因此,了解和研究细菌的这一机制,阻断其信息交流,也许能达到削减细菌毒力的目的.文中将借助国外的最新报道,结合作者的研究成果,介绍细菌与细菌之间信息系统的由来,该系统的调节机制,研究该系统的手段、意义以及前景展望等.     

Equilibrium Copper Strip Points as a Function of Temperature and Other Operating Parameters： Implications for Commercial Copper Solvent Extraction Plants

Introduction Copper solvent extraction (SX) is a well known proc-ess for copper recovery from a wide variety of leach solutions. Until recently, typical leach solutions con-tained 0.5 to 8 g/L Cu at 15 to 25℃ . In the past 5 years there has been signific…     

Early Cambrian protoconodonts and conodont-like fossils from China: Taxonomic revisions and stratigraphic implications

Tooth likephosphaticprotoconodontsand“con odont likefossils”arecharacteristiccomponentsoftheEarlyCambriansmallshellyfossils (SSF )withaworldwidedistribution .Theyarerepresentedexclu sivelybyisolatedscleritesandareoften presentinaceticacid etchedresiduesfromLowerCambriancar bonates .SincethefirstreportofProtohertzinaMis sarzhevsky 1973fromthebasalCambrianoftheYangtzePlatformin 1977[1] ,andalongwithenthusi asticresearchactivitiesonthesmallshellyfossilsandcandidatesectionsforaglobalPrecamb…