Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The sheddase activity of ADAM17/TACE is regulated by the tetraspanin CD9

ADAM17/TACE is a metalloproteinase responsible for the shedding of the proinflammatory cytokine TNF-α and many other cell surface proteins involved in development, cell adhesion, migration, differentiation, and proliferation. Despite the important biological function of ADAM17, the mechanisms of regulation of its metalloproteinase activity remain largely unknown. We report here that the tetraspanin CD9 and ADAM17 partially co-localize on the surface of endothelial and monocytic cells. In situ proximity ligation, co-immunoprecipitation, crosslinking, and pull-down experiments collectively demonstrate a direct association between these molecules. Functional studies reveal that treatment with CD9-specific antibodies or neoexpression of CD9 exert negative regulatory effects on ADAM17 sheddase activity. Conversely, CD9 silencing increased the activity of ADAM17 against its substrates TNF-α and ICAM-1. Taken together, our results show that CD9 associates with ADAM17 and, through this interaction, negatively regulates the sheddase activity of ADAM17.     

A variant associated with nicotine dependence, lung cancer and peripheral arterial disease

Smoking is a leading cause of preventable death, causing about 5 million premature deaths worldwide each year. Evidence for genetic influence on smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence (ND) has prompted a search for susceptibility genes. Furthermore, assessing the impact of sequence variants on smoking-related diseases is important to public health. Smoking is the major risk factor for lung cancer (LC) and is one of the main risk factors for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Here we identify a common variant in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15q24 with an effect on smoking quantity, ND and the risk of two smoking-related diseases in populations of European descent. The variant has an effect on the number of cigarettes smoked per day in our sample of smokers. The same variant was associated with ND in a previous genome-wide association study that used low-quantity smokers as controls, and with a similar approach we observe a highly significant association with ND. A comparison of cases of LC and PAD with population controls each showed that the variant confers risk of LC and PAD. The findings provide a case study of a gene-environment interaction, highlighting the role of nicotine addiction in the pathology of other serious diseases.     

The influence of transparency on budget forecast deviations in municipal governments

This paper analyzes the impact of transparency on fiscal performance. Our sample considers the 100 largest Spanish municipalities for the years 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2014. The results show that the level of municipal transparency influences budget forecast deviations in tax revenues and current expenditures. On the one hand, less transparent municipalities overestimate their revenues, allowing them to provide more public services without an immediate increase in taxes. On the other, these local governments, which are aware of the overestimation of their revenues, may spend less than they budgeted. More transparent municipalities, meanwhile, seem to be more prudent in their revenue estimations, since they underestimate their revenues, meaning they can spend more than projected. Our results also show that the behavior of politicians is influenced by the phase of the electoral cycle in which they find themselves, with politicians overestimating expenditures in the year before election.     

Genetic structuring at a fine scale in the russet-crowned motmot ( Momotus mexicanus ) in a tropical dry forest in central Mexico

Because of their high dispersal abilities, birds are expected to manifest marked genetic structuring only at relatively large geographic scales. However, it is not well known how factors like nest site fidelity in a largely resident species could limit gene flow and increase genetic structuring in birds. In this study we use RAPD markers to estimate genetic structuring in a strongly sedentary species of the American tropics, the Russet crowned Motmot ( Momotus mexicanus ), within a tropical dry forest in central Mexico. Genetic structuring was assessed among 3 populations separated by a mean distance of only 25 km. We report that 12.9% of the total genetic variation is explained by differences among sites, which is quite high for a bird at this geographic scale. We propose that high nest site fidelity, brought on by a scarcity of suitable nest substrates, may be responsible for high genetic structuring in this species.     

Early maize agriculture and interzonal interaction in southern Peru

Over the past decade, increasing attention to the recovery and identification of plant microfossil remains from archaeological sites located in lowland South America has significantly increased knowledge of pre-Columbian plant domestication and crop plant dispersals in tropical forests and other regions. Along the Andean mountain chain, however, the chronology and trajectory of plant domestication are still poorly understood for both important indigenous staple crops such as the potato (Solanum sp.) and others exogenous to the region, for example, maize (Zea mays). Here we report the analyses of plant microremains from a late preceramic house (3,431 +/- 45 to 3,745 +/- 65 14C bp or approximately 3,600 to 4,000 calibrated years bp) in the highland southern Peruvian site of Waynuna. Our results extend the record of maize by at least a millennium in the southern Andes, show on-site processing of maize into flour, provide direct evidence for the deliberate movement of plant foods by humans from the tropical forest to the highlands, and confirm the potential of plant microfossil analysis in understanding ancient plant use and migration in this region.