Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Common variants at CD40 and other loci confer risk of rheumatoid arthritis

To identify rheumatoid arthritis risk loci in European populations, we conducted a meta-analysis of two published genome-wide association (GWA) studies totaling 3,393 cases and 12,462 controls. We genotyped 31 top-ranked SNPs not previously associated with rheumatoid arthritis in an independent replication of 3,929 autoantibody-positive rheumatoid arthritis cases and 5,807 matched controls from eight separate collections. We identified a common variant at the CD40 gene locus (rs4810485, P = 0.0032 replication, P = 8.2 x 10(-9) overall, OR = 0.87). Along with other associations near TRAF1 (refs. 2,3) and TNFAIP3 (refs. 4,5), this implies a central role for the CD40 signaling pathway in rheumatoid arthritis pathogenesis. We also identified association at the CCL21 gene locus (rs2812378, P = 0.00097 replication, P = 2.8 x 10(-7) overall), a gene involved in lymphocyte trafficking. Finally, we identified evidence of association at four additional gene loci: MMEL1-TNFRSF14 (rs3890745, P = 0.0035 replication, P = 1.1 x 10(-7) overall), CDK6 (rs42041, P = 0.010 replication, P = 4.0 x 10(-6) overall), PRKCQ (rs4750316, P = 0.0078 replication, P = 4.4 x 10(-6) overall), and KIF5A-PIP4K2C (rs1678542, P = 0.0026 replication, P = 8.8 x 10(-8) overall).     

Large-scale association analyses identify new loci influencing glycemic traits and provide insight into the underlying biological pathways

Through genome-wide association meta-analyses of up to 133,010 individuals of European ancestry without diabetes, including individuals newly genotyped using the Metabochip, we have increased the number of confirmed loci influencing glycemic traits to 53, of which 33 also increase type 2 diabetes risk (q < 0.05). Loci influencing fasting insulin concentration showed association with lipid levels and fat distribution, suggesting impact on insulin resistance. Gene-based analyses identified further biologically plausible loci, suggesting that additional loci beyond those reaching genome-wide significance are likely to represent real associations. This conclusion is supported by an excess of directionally consistent and nominally significant signals between discovery and follow-up studies. Functional analysis of these newly discovered loci will further improve our understanding of glycemic control.