Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Interleukin-33 stimulates formation of functional osteoclasts from human CD14+ monocytes

Interleukin (IL)-33 is a recently described pro-inflammatory cytokine. Here we demonstrate IL-33 as a regulator of functional osteoclasts (OCs) from human CD14⁺ monocytes. IL-33 stimulates formation of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP)⁺ multinuclear OCs from monocytes. This action was suppressed by anti-ST2 antibody, suggesting that IL-33 acts through its receptor ST2, but not by the receptor activator of NF-κB ligand (RANKL) decoy, osteoprotegerin, or anti-RANKL antibody. IL-33 stimulated activating phosphorylations of signaling molecules in monocytes that are critical for OC development. These included Syk, phospholipase Cγ2, Gab2, MAP kinases, TAK-1, and NF-κB. IL-33 also enhanced expression of OC differentiation factors including TNF-α receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6), nuclear factor of activated T cells cytoplasmic 1, c-Fos, c-Src, cathepsin K, and calcitonin receptor. IL-33 eventually induced bone resorption. This study suggests that the osteoclastogenic property of IL-33 is mediated through TRAF6 as well as the immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif-dependent Syk/PLCγ pathway in human CD14⁺ monocytes.     

Birds of a Feather Protest Together: Theorizing Self-Organizing Political Protests with Flock Theory

The current research theorizes decentralized and self-organized political protests via flock theory (Rosen 2002), a theory of emergent self-organization in communicative human interaction. Flock theory draws from a theoretical basis of emergence and self-organizing systems, and is presented as a theory of decentralized communication structures. Focusing on the optimization of decentralized networks and roadmap based coordination of organizationally homopholous foci; the current theory poses a model of human interaction that captures the potentially egalitarian effects of cooperative evolution and collective action. Case studies of two separate decentralized political protests against Korean government and FARC are offered as evidences of such phenomena.     

Lipogenesis in rats adapted to intermittent starvation or continuous underfeeding

Zusammenfassung Albinoratten, bei denen zwischen die Fütterungstage 1–2tägige Hungerperioden eingesetzt wurden, zeigten nach 3 Wochen eine wesentlich erhöhte Inkorporation von 1-C¹⁴-Acetat in die Fettsäuren der Leberschnitte. Selbst bei Herabsetzung der Kalorienzufuhr um ca. 50% stieg hier, im Gegensatz zu kontinuierlich unterernährten Tieren, der prozentuale Körperfettgehalt. Die Resultate sprechen für eine Steigerung der Lipogenese.     

Über die tuberkulostatische Aktivität von 2,5-Bis-(aminooxymethyl)-3,6-diketopiperazin,eines Umwandlungsproduktes des Cycloserins

Summary It has been ascertained that racemic 2,5-bis-(aminooxymethyl)-3,6-diketopiperazine, being a transformation product ofD,L-cycloserine, possesses the same effect againstMycobacterium tuberculosis asD,L-cycloserine itself.     

Phosphodiesterase: overview of protein structures, potential therapeutic applications and recent progress in drug development

Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) are essential regulators of cyclic nucleotide signaling with diverse physiological functions. Because of their great market potential and therapeutic importance, PDE inhibitors became recognized as important therapeutic agents in the treatment of various diseases. Currently, there are seven PDE inhibitors on the market, and the pharmacological and safety evaluations of many drug candidates are in progress. Three-dimensional (3D) structures of catalytic domains of PDE 1, -3, -4, -5 and -9 in the presence of their inhibitors are now available, and can be utilized for rational drug design. Recent advances in molecular pharmacology of PDE isoenzymes resulted in identification of new potential applications of PDE inhibitors in various therapeutic areas, including dementia, depression and schizophrenia. This review will describe the latest advances in PDE research on 3D structural studies, the potential of therapeutic applications and the development of drug candidates.Received 30 November 2004; received after revision 24 January 2005; accepted 5 February 2005     

Versuche auf dem Gebiet der Lokalanästhesie mit protrahierter Wirkung. III

Summary The addition of simple quaternary salts (as I and II) to solutions of local anaesthetics, effects a pronounced prolongation of the time of complete infiltration anaesthesia. These salts have no effect on the time of surface anaesthesia. Other pharmacological characteristics of these mixtures were also determined.     

Control of plant germline proliferation by SCF(FBL17) degradation of cell cycle inhibitors

Flowering plants possess a unique reproductive strategy, involving double fertilization by twin sperm cells. Unlike animal germ lines, the male germ cell lineage in plants only forms after meiosis and involves asymmetric division of haploid microspores, to produce a large, non-germline vegetative cell and a germ cell that undergoes one further division to produce the twin sperm cells. Although this switch in cell cycle control is critical for sperm cell production and delivery, the underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown. Here we identify a novel F-box protein of Arabidopsis thaliana, designated FBL17 (F-box-like 17), that enables this switch by targeting the degradation of cyclin-dependent kinase A;1 inhibitors specifically in male germ cells. We show that FBL17 is transiently expressed in the male germ line after asymmetric division and forms an SKP1-Cullin1-F-box protein (SCF) E3 ubiquitin ligase complex (SCF(FBL17)) that targets the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors KRP6 and KRP7 for proteasome-dependent degradation. Accordingly, the loss of FBL17 function leads to the stabilization of KRP6 and inhibition of germ cell cycle progression. Our results identify SCF(FBL17) as an essential male germ cell proliferation complex that promotes twin sperm cell production and double fertilization in flowering plants.