Have national trends in fertility between 1986 and 2006 occurred evenly across England and Wales?

During the past 20 years fertility patterns within England and Wales have changed considerably. The total fertility rate experienced a prolonged decline during the 1990s and hit a record low in 2001. Since then the level of fertility has increased fairly rapidly. Over the two decades, fertility has been constantly increasing at ages above 30, and as a consequence the mean age of motherhood has been rising. This article explores fertility trends within statistical regions and local authorities to improve our understanding of changes in fertility at the subnational level between 1986 and 2006.     

Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Cdk5 targets active Src for ubiquitin-dependent degradation by phosphorylating Src(S75)

The non-receptor tyrosine kinase Src is a critical regulator of cytoskeletal contraction, cell adhesion, and migration. In normal cells, Src activity is stringently controlled by Csk-dependent phosphorylation of Src(Y530), and by Cullin-5-dependent ubiquitinylation, which affects active Src(pY419) exclusively, leading to its degradation by the proteosome. Previous work has shown that Src activity is also limited by Cdk5, a proline-directed kinase, which has been shown to phosphorylate Src(S75). Here we show that this phosphorylation promotes the ubiquitin-dependent degradation of Src, thus restricting the availability of active Src. We demonstrate that Src(S75) phosphorylation occurs in vivo in epithelial cells, and like ubiquitinylation, is associated only with active Src. Preventing Cdk5-dependent phosphorylation of Src(S75), by site-specific mutation of S75 or by Cdk5 inhibition or suppression, increases Src(Y419) phosphorylation and kinase activity, resulting in Src-dependent cytoskeletal changes. In transfected cells, ubiquitinylation of Src(S75A) is about 35% that of wild-type Src-V5, and its half-life is approximately 2.5-fold greater. Cdk5 suppression leads to a comparable decrease in the ubiquitinylation of endogenous Src and a similar increase in Src stability. Together, these findings demonstrate that Cdk5-dependent phosphorylation of Src(S75) is a physiologically significant mechanism of regulating intracellular Src activity.     

The PHYTOCHROME C photoreceptor gene mediates natural variation in flowering and growth responses of Arabidopsis thaliana

Light has an important role in modulating seedling growth and flowering time. We show that allelic variation at the PHYTOCHROME C (PHYC) photoreceptor locus affects both traits in natural populations of A. thaliana. Two functionally distinct PHYC haplotype groups are distributed in a latitudinal cline dependent on FRIGIDA, a locus that together with FLOWERING LOCUS C explains a large portion of the variation in A. thaliana flowering time. In a genome-wide scan for association of 65 loci with latitude, there was an excess of significant P values, indicative of population structure. Nevertheless, PHYC was the most strongly associated locus across 163 strains, suggesting that PHYC alleles are under diversifying selection in A. thaliana. Our work, together with previous findings, suggests that photoreceptor genes are major agents of natural variation in plant flowering and growth response.     

Mutations in genes encoding melanosomal proteins cause pigmentary glaucoma in DBA/2J mice.

Pigmentary glaucoma is a significant cause of human blindness. Abnormally liberated iris pigment and cell debris enter the ocular drainage structures, leading to increased intraocular pressure (IOP) and glaucoma. DBA/2J (D2) mice develop a form of pigmentary glaucoma involving iris pigment dispersion (IPD) and iris stromal atrophy (ISA). Using high-resolution mapping techniques, sequencing and functional genetic tests, we show that IPD and ISA result from mutations in related genes encoding melanosomal proteins. IPD is caused by a premature stop codon mutation in the Gpnmb (GpnmbR150X) gene, as proved by the occurrence of IPD only in D2 mice that are homozygous with respect to GpnmbR150X; otherwise, similar D2 mice that are not homozygous for GpnmbR150X do not develop IPD. ISA is caused by the recessive Tyrp1b mutant allele and rescued by the transgenic introduction of wildtype Tyrp1. We hypothesize that IPD and ISA alter melanosomes, allowing toxic intermediates of pigment production to leak from melanosomes, causing iris disease and subsequent pigmentary glaucoma. This is supported by the rescue of IPD and ISA in D2 eyes with substantially decreased pigment production. These data indicate that pigment production and mutant melanosomal protein genes may contribute to human pigmentary glaucoma. The fact that hypopigmentation profoundly alleviates the D2 disease indicates that therapeutic strategies designed to decrease pigment production may be beneficial in human pigmentary glaucoma.     

Growth of early continental crust by partial melting of eclogite

The tectonic setting in which the first continental crust formed, and the extent to which modern processes of arc magmatism at convergent plate margins were operative on the early Earth, are matters of debate. Geochemical studies have shown that felsic rocks in both Archaean high-grade metamorphic ('grey gneiss') and low-grade granite-greenstone terranes are comprised dominantly of sodium-rich granitoids of the tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) suite of rocks. Here we present direct experimental evidence showing that partial melting of hydrous basalt in the eclogite facies produces granitoid liquids with major- and trace-element compositions equivalent to Archaean TTG, including the low Nb/Ta and high Zr/Sm ratios of 'average' Archaean TTG, but from a source with initially subchondritic Nb/Ta. In modern environments, basalts with low Nb/Ta form by partial melting of subduction-modified depleted mantle, notably in intraoceanic arc settings in the forearc and back-arc regimes. These observations suggest that TTG magmatism may have taken place beneath granite-greenstone complexes developing along Archaean intraoceanic island arcs by imbricate thrust-stacking and tectonic accretion of a diversity of subduction-related terranes. Partial melting accompanying dehydration of these generally basaltic source materials at the base of thickened, 'arc-like' crust would produce compositionally appropriate TTG granitoids in equilibrium with eclogite residues.