Robustness of alternative non‐linearity tests for SETAR models

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non‐linear structure of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR‐type non‐linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non‐linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non‐linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alpha- and beta-adrenergic receptors in rat myocardium membranes after prolonged ethanol inhalation

Summary After 3 weeks of continuous ethanol intoxication by inhalation, the maximal number and affinity of the -and -receptors of rat heart were unchanged. These data indicate that adrenergic receptor disturbances are not involved in the mechanism of chronic ethanol-induced triglyceride deposition in the heart.Acknowledgments. This work was supported by grants from the Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale. We wish to thank Mr M. Clément for skilled technical assistance in performing chronic ethanol inhalation treatments.     

Early eighteenth-century Newtonianism: the Huguenot contribution

John Theophilus Desaguliers’s allegorical poem The Newtonian system of the world, the best model of government (1728) crystallizes the contribution of several important French Protestant exiles to the construction of early Newtonianism. In the context of diverging interpretations of Newton’s scientific achievement in terms of natural religion, writers such as Des Maizeaux, Coste, Le Clerc and others actively disseminated a version of Newtonianism which was close to Newton’s own intention. Through public experiments, translations, correspondence, reviews and books, they managed to convey a vision of Newtonian science which coincided with their propaganda of English liberties in Church and State. Therefore their effort on behalf of Newtonianism can be interpreted as part of a wider strategy of assimilation into English society at a time when most exiled Huguenots had given up hope of ever recreating a French Reformed Church at home.     

A Simple Linear Regression Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Rates

Observing that a sequence of negative logarithms of 1‐year survival probabilities displays a linear relationship with the sequence of corresponding terms with a time lag of a certain number of years, we propose a simple linear regression to model and forecast mortality rates. Our model assuming the linearity between two mortality sequences with a time lag each other does not need to formulate the time trends of mortality rates across ages for mortality prediction. Moreover, the parameters of our model for a given age depend on the mortality rates for that age only. Therefore, whether the span of the study ages with the age included is widened or shortened will not affect the results of mortality fitting and forecasting for that age. In the empirical testing, the regression results using the mortality data for the UK, USA and Japan show a satisfactory goodness of fit, which convinces us of the appropriateness of the linear assumption. Empirical illustrations further show that our model's performances of fitting and forecasting mortality rates are quite satisfactory compared with the existing well‐known mortality models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WTI crude oil option implied VaR and CVaR: An empirical application

Using option market data we derive naturally forward‐looking, nonparametric and model‐free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option‐implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option‐implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results show that the option‐implied risk metrics are valid alternatives to the statistically based historical models.     

For whom the bell tolls? DING proteins in health and disease

DING proteins, identified mainly by their eponymous N-terminal sequences, are ubiquitous in living organisms. Amongst bacteria, they are common in pseudomonads, and have been characterised with respect to genetics and structure. They form part of a wider family of phosphate-binding proteins, with emerging roles in phosphate acquisition and pathogenicity. Many DING proteins have been isolated in eukaryotes, in which they have been associated with very diverse biological activities, often in the context of possible signalling roles. Disease states in which DING proteins have been implicated include rheumatoid arthritis, lithiasis, atherosclerosis, some tumours and tumour-associated cachexia, and bacterial and viral adherence. Complete genetic and structural characterisation of eukaryotic DING genes and proteins is still lacking, though the phosphate-binding site seems to be conserved. Whether as bacterial proteins related to bacterial pathogenicity, or as eukaryotic components of biochemical signalling systems, DING proteins require further study. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Small molecule activators of SIRT1 as therapeutics for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Calorie restriction extends lifespan and produces a metabolic profile desirable for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. SIRT1, an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, is a principal modulator of pathways downstream of calorie restriction that produce beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity. Resveratrol, a polyphenolic SIRT1 activator, mimics the anti-ageing effects of calorie restriction in lower organisms and in mice fed a high-fat diet ameliorates insulin resistance, increases mitochondrial content, and prolongs survival. Here we describe the identification and characterization of small molecule activators of SIRT1 that are structurally unrelated to, and 1,000-fold more potent than, resveratrol. These compounds bind to the SIRT1 enzyme-peptide substrate complex at an allosteric site amino-terminal to the catalytic domain and lower the Michaelis constant for acetylated substrates. In diet-induced obese and genetically obese mice, these compounds improve insulin sensitivity, lower plasma glucose, and increase mitochondrial capacity. In Zucker fa/fa rats, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies demonstrate that SIRT1 activators improve whole-body glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, skeletal muscle and liver. Thus, SIRT1 activation is a promising new therapeutic approach for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes.