Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models.     

Senescence surveillance of pre-malignant hepatocytes limits liver cancer development

Upon the aberrant activation of oncogenes, normal cells can enter the cellular senescence program, a state of stable cell-cycle arrest, which represents an important barrier against tumour development in vivo. Senescent cells communicate with their environment by secreting various cytokines and growth factors, and it was reported that this 'secretory phenotype' can have pro- as well as anti-tumorigenic effects. Here we show that oncogene-induced senescence occurs in otherwise normal murine hepatocytes in vivo. Pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes secrete chemo- and cytokines and are subject to immune-mediated clearance (designated as 'senescence surveillance'), which depends on an intact CD4(+) T-cell-mediated adaptive immune response. Impaired immune surveillance of pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes results in the development of murine hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), thus showing that senescence surveillance is important for tumour suppression in vivo. In accordance with these observations, ras-specific Th1 lymphocytes could be detected in mice, in which oncogene-induced senescence had been triggered by hepatic expression of Nras(G12V). We also found that CD4(+) T cells require monocytes/macrophages to execute the clearance of senescent hepatocytes. Our study indicates that senescence surveillance represents an important extrinsic component of the senescence anti-tumour barrier, and illustrates how the cellular senescence program is involved in tumour immune surveillance by mounting specific immune responses against antigens expressed in pre-malignant senescent cells.     

Modelling the long QT syndrome with induced pluripotent stem cells

The ability to generate patient-specific human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) offers a new paradigm for modelling human disease and for individualizing drug testing. Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a familial arrhythmogenic syndrome characterized by abnormal ion channel function and sudden cardiac death. Here we report the development of a patient/disease-specific human iPSC line from a patient with type-2 LQTS (which is due to the A614V missense mutation in the KCNH2 gene). The generated iPSCs were coaxed to differentiate into the cardiac lineage. Detailed whole-cell patch-clamp and extracellular multielectrode recordings revealed significant prolongation of the action-potential duration in LQTS human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes (the characteristic LQTS phenotype) when compared to healthy control cells. Voltage-clamp studies confirmed that this action-potential-duration prolongation stems from a significant reduction of the cardiac potassium current I(Kr). Importantly, LQTS-derived cells also showed marked arrhythmogenicity, characterized by early-after depolarizations and triggered arrhythmias. We then used the LQTS human iPSC-derived cardiac-tissue model to evaluate the potency of existing and novel pharmacological agents that may either aggravate (potassium-channel blockers) or ameliorate (calcium-channel blockers, K(ATP)-channel openers and late sodium-channel blockers) the disease phenotype. Our study illustrates the ability of human iPSC technology to model the abnormal functional phenotype of an inherited cardiac disorder and to identify potential new therapeutic agents. As such, it represents a promising paradigm to study disease mechanisms, optimize patient care (personalized medicine), and aid in the development of new therapies.     

A Pluto-like radius and a high albedo for the dwarf planet Eris from an occultation

The dwarf planet Eris is a trans-Neptunian object with an orbital eccentricity of 0.44, an inclination of 44 degrees and a surface composition very similar to that of Pluto. It resides at present at 95.7 astronomical units (1?AU is the Earth-Sun distance) from Earth, near its aphelion and more than three times farther than Pluto. Owing to this great distance, measuring its size or detecting a putative atmosphere is difficult. Here we report the observation of a multi-chord stellar occultation by Eris on 6 November 2010 UT. The event is consistent with a spherical shape for Eris, with radius 1,163?±?6?kilometres, density 2.52?±?0.05 grams per cm(3) and a high visible geometric albedo, Pv = 0.96(+0.09)(-0.04). No nitrogen, argon or methane atmospheres are detected with surface pressure larger than ～1?nanobar, about 10,000 times more tenuous than Pluto's present atmosphere. As Pluto's radius is estimated to be between 1,150 and 1,200 kilometres, Eris appears as a Pluto twin, with a bright surface possibly caused by a collapsed atmosphere, owing to its cold environment. We anticipate that this atmosphere may periodically sublimate as Eris approaches its perihelion, at 37.8 astronomical units from the Sun.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A fractionally integrated exponential model for UK unemployment

Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield ( 1973 ) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling UK unemployment. This gives us a better understanding of the low‐frequency dynamics affecting the series without relying on any particular ARMA specification for its short‐run components which, in general, require many more parameters to estimate. The results indicate that this exponential model, confounded with fractional integration, may be a feasible way of modelling unemployment. It also shows that its order of integration is much higher than one and thus leads to the conclusion that the standard practice of taking first differences may lead to erroneous results. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A relevant in vitro rat model for the evaluation of blood-brain barrier translocation of nanoparticles

Poly(MePEG₂₀₀₀cyanoacrylate-co-hexadecylcyanoacrylate) (PEG-PHDCA) nanoparticles have demonstrated their capacity to reach the rat central nervous system after intravenous injection. For insight into the transport of colloidal systems across the blood-brain barrier (BBB), we developed a relevant in vitro rat BBB model consisting of a coculture of rat brain endothelial cells (RBECs) and rat astrocytes. The RBECs used in our model displayed and retained structural characteristics of brain endothelial cells, such as expression of P-glycoprotein, occludin and ZO-1, and immunofluorescence studies showed the specific localization of occludin and ZO1. The high values of transendothelial electrical resistance and low permeability coefficients of marker molecules demonstrated the functionality of this model. The comparative passage of polyhexadecylcyanoacrylate and PEG-PHDCA nanoparticles through this model was investigated, showing a higher passage of PEGylated nanoparticles, presumably by endocytosis. This result was confirmed by confocal microscopy. Thanks to a good in vitro/in vivo correlation, this rat BBB model will help in understanding the mechanisms of nanoparticle translocation and in designing new types of colloidal carriers as brain delivery systems.Received 4 March 2005; accepted 14 April 2005     

Tumour biology: senescence in premalignant tumours

Oncogene-induced senescence is a cellular response that may be crucial for protection against cancer development, but its investigation has so far been restricted to cultured cells that have been manipulated to overexpress an oncogene. Here we analyse tumours initiated by an endogenous oncogene, ras, and show that senescent cells exist in premalignant tumours but not in malignant ones. Senescence is therefore a defining feature of premalignant tumours that could prove valuable in the diagnosis and prognosis of cancer.