Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Molecular evidence for increased hematopoietic proliferation in the spleen of the b/b laboratory rat

The splenomegaly and the appearance of a significant number of CFU-E (erythroid colony-forming units) and BFU-E¹ (erythroid burst-forming units) in the Belgrade laboratory rat (b/b) spleen prompted us to analyse further the molecular evidence for increased hematopoietic proliferation in the b/b spleen. Messenger RNAs (mRNAs) specific for globins, proteins for iron transport and deposition and the band 3 protein were used in rat erythropoietic tissues as markers for proliferation and erythroid differentiation. In the b/b spleen, all mRNAs analysed display an erythroid-specific pattern of expression. This analysis also revealed an enhanced level of mRNA for ferritin in the +/b spleen, whereas erythrocyte-specific mRNA production was normal.     

The timing of cyclophosphamide therapy in tumor-bearing rats affects the resistance to tumor challenge in survivors

Summary Cyclophosphamide given to rats 2 or 5 days after an injection of Yoshida ascites sarcoma cured approximately the same proportion of animals, but the resistance to a subsequent tumor challenge was found only in rats treated with the drug 5 days after tumor injection.     

The effect of physostigmine on (Na++K+)-ATPase activity in different rat brain regions

Summary The activity of (Na⁺+K⁺)-ATPase and acetylcholine esterase were folloed in rat brain cerebral cortex, caudate, thalamus, hippocampus and medulla after i.v. administration of physostigmine. Both enzymes were found to be inhibited in a dose-dependent manner. The most pronounced inhibition of (Na⁺+K⁺)-ATPase was found in caudate. where the highest activity of acetylcholine esterase is found.These studies were supported by a grant from the Union of Science of Republic Serbia, No. 40404-14.     

Complete replacement of serum in primary cultures of chick embryo brain cells by growth-promoting alpha-globulin

Summary Growth-promoting alpha-globulin (GPAG), a specific serum protein complex which induces mitotic activity in continually replicating metazoan cells in vitro, was shown in this study to support growth of astrocytes and mesenchymal cells as well as process formation of nerve cells isolated from cerebral hemispheres of chick embryos.     

Some properties of the goat placental lactogen

Summary Goat placental lactogen was partially purified from a medium collected after placental tissue incubation. The data obtained by disc electrophoresis and isoelectric focusing experiments, as well as by means of radioreceptor assay methods, provide evidence of the similarity between the goat and ovine placental lactogen.The careful technical assistance of L. Tichovská is gratefuly acknowledged.     

Structure specificity of some immunoadjuvant synthetic glycopeptides

Summary The immunoadjuvant activity of muramyl dipeptide seems to be critically dependent on the type of substitution of the -carboxyl group of the D-isoglutamine residue. Moreover the nonapeptide L-Ala-D-isoGlu-L-Lys-D-Ala-(Gly)₅-OME also shows a definite effect.     

The effect of D-6-methyl-8-[β-isopropylaminoethyl] ergoline-I on the lactation in nursing rats

D-6-Methyl-8-[-isopropylaminoethyl] ergoline-I [VÚFB-10726], beginning from the dose of 0.05 mg/kg p.o., suppresses lactation through the inhibition of prolactin secretion in nursing rats.     

用基因芯片技术分析干旱胁迫下生殖生长期大麦的基因表达

耐旱性是干旱地区稳定和增加大麦产量的一个关键因素。鉴定出与耐旱性相关的功能基因,一方面可了解大麦的耐旱机理,同时还可以促进利用生物技术来改良大麦的耐旱性。在研究中,2个在耐旱性上具有明显差异的大麦品种Tadmor(耐旱)和WI2291(干旱敏感)被选作材料,采用22000个ESTs(基因表达序列标签)的Affymetrix大麦基因芯片Barley1来分析生殖生长期干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料的差异表达基因。研究结果表明,干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料中有77个共调节基因,其中部分基因已被报道过可能与抗旱性相关。这些基因中已有功能注释的基因按其生物学功能被分为14组,猜测它们是干旱胁迫的响应基因,在抗旱性上可能不起重要作用,或者是必需的但单独不足以提高大麦的抗旱性。进一步比较2个材料差异表达的基因,发现二材料之间有372个受干旱调节基因的差异。这些基因中有功能注释基因的生物学功能中可分为15组,其中一些已被认为与抗旱性相关;而对那些未知功能的基因,推测可能亦在大麦的抗旱性上扮演一定的角色。研究所得结果可为阐述生殖生长期大麦的耐旱性机理提供新的认识。