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1.
This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months. 相似文献
2.
Brian Young 《Studies in history and philosophy of science》2004,35(3):645-663
The career of John Jackson (1686-1763), Arian theologian and controversialist, provides a key to unlocking the early reception and quick collapse of a Newtonian natural apologetic originally developed by Samuel Clarke. The importance of friendship and discipleship in eighteenth-century intellectual enquiry is emphasised, and the links between Newton and his followers are traced alongside those of a group of Cambridge Lockeans, led by Jackson’s direct contemporary Daniel Waterland, who proved instrumental in the initial dismantling of Clarke’s brand of Newtonian apologetic. The controversial context of this engagement is shown to have been largely provided by the religiously compromising rise of freethinking, and Tindal’s Christianity as old as the creation (1731) signalled the dangers to proponents of natural religion as an adjunct of Christian apologetic in such a heated atmosphere. Religious division of the sort that resulted paradoxically played into the hands of the freethinkers in the anticlerical atmosphere of the 1730s, and accusations were exchanged between Newtonians and Lockeans accordingly. The dynamic of England’s Enlightenment experience is, then, a complicated one, and, as the career and writings of Jackson and William Whiston demonstrate, it was one which absorbed as well as repudiated ‘enthusiasm’. 相似文献
3.
Total Systems Intervention (TSI) is an approach to intervening in problem situations which has much to offer where complex
interacting issues need to be addressed by the complementary use of intervention methodologies. That such an approach has
much in common with Action Research (AR) has been recognized, with much recent effort being devoted to the relationship between
AR and Critical Systems Thinking (CST), the theoretical endeavor underpinning TSI. This paper further develops this line of
debate and relates AR or Human Inquiry (HI) more directly to TSI, using an information systems intervention to enhance the
study. The outcome is a demonstration of how TSI implicitly uses techniques informed from the field of Action Research, and
how a more thorough synthesis of HI with TSI might serve to improve the overall intervention process. 相似文献
4.
室内模型实验和现场观测均已发现了波浪引起的海床孔隙水压力存在瞬态和累积两种响应, 已有工作大多只单独研究其中的一种孔隙水压响应机理.分析得到了波浪诱导残余孔隙水压的理论解答, 并与实验结果进行了比较分析. 在所得理论解的基础上, 进行参量研究, 给出了孔隙水压瞬态和累积响应分析的应用范围. 提出了一种便于工程应用的预测波浪载荷下海床液化势的近似解. 相似文献
5.
A. Alkofahi J. K. Rupprecht D. L. Smith Ch. -J. Chang J. L. McLaughlin 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1988,44(1):83-85
Summary Using brine shrimp lethality for activity-directed fractionation, goniothalamicin (I), a new tetrahydroxy-mono-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), has been isolated from ethanolic extracts of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae). This novel compound was found to be cytotoxic and insecticidal and inhibited the formation of crown gall tumors on potato discs. Annonacin (II), the only other reported mono-tetrahydrofuran acetogenin, was also isolated; the previously reported 9ASK (astrocytoma reversal) activity ofII was confirmed, andII is now also found to be weakly active against 3PS murine leukemia. 相似文献
6.
A. Alkofahi J. K. Rupprecht Y. -M. Liu C. -J. Chang D. L. Smith J. L. McLaughlin 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1990,46(5):539-541
Summary Gigantecin (I), a novel tetrahydroxy-di-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), was isolated from an ethanolic extract of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae), by means of activity-directed fractionation (brine shrimp lethality test). This new compound is extremely cytotoxic to human tumor cells, inhibits crown gall tumors on potato discs, and is active in an assay designed to detect antimitotic agents (9 ASK). 相似文献
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9.
Aaron Smith 《Journal of forecasting》2005,24(8):557-574
This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
本书是施普林格出版社2005年出版的一本关于螺旋压缩机的新著。螺旋式压缩机是一种最常见的用于压缩气体的机器,由于其构造简单、工作效率高而受到人们的关注。本书系统阐述了螺旋压缩机的种类、几何参数转子的设计工作原理和螺旋压缩机的计算。 相似文献