Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies

The tropics are the main source of the atmosphere's sensible and latent heat, and water vapour, and are therefore important for reconstructions of past climate. But long, accurately dated records of southern tropical palaeoclimate, which would allow the establishment of climatic connections to distant regions, have not been available. Here we present a 210,000-year (210-kyr) record of wet periods in tropical northeastern Brazil--a region that is currently semi-arid. The record is obtained from speleothems and travertine deposits that are accurately dated using the U/Th method. We find wet periods that are synchronous with periods of weak East Asian summer monsoons, cold periods in Greenland, Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and periods of decreased river runoff to the Cariaco basin. We infer that the wet periods may be explained with a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This widespread synchroneity of climate anomalies suggests a relatively rapid global reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere system. We conclude that the wet periods probably affected rainforest distribution, as plant fossils show that forest expansion occurred during these intermittent wet intervals, and opened a forest corridor between the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests.     

Challenging the spanning hypothesis at short horizons: Evidence from Norway

The spanning hypothesis states that the yield curve reflects all available information about future yields. This paper challenges the hypothesis by investigating the predictive power of bond market order flow while controlling for principal components extracted from the current yield curve. The results show that order flows aggregated from interdealer trades in Norwegian government bonds can predict yield changes and excess returns both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample at the daily and weekly horizons. This suggests that bond dealers possess information about future bond yields that is not yet incorporated into the yield curve. Forecasts based on microstructure data can thus be valuable for short term investors.     

Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model

Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of approximately 1,470 years for the late glacial period. Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts, including internal oscillations in the climate system and external forcing, possibly from the Sun. But whereas pronounced solar cycles of approximately 87 and approximately 210 years are well known, a approximately 1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected. Here we show that an intermediate-complexity climate model with glacial climate conditions simulates rapid climate shifts similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events with a spacing of 1,470 years when forced by periodic freshwater input into the North Atlantic Ocean in cycles of approximately 87 and approximately 210 years. We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation. For Holocene conditions, similar events do not occur. We conclude that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle.     

Systemic Analysis of the Soccer (Football) Value Chain: Learning from the Brazilian Context

Soccer (football) is identified as the most popular sport in the world with a high turnover of economic-financial resources. The different segments of the soccer (football) value chain exert mutual influence on the variables that rule the dynamics of this sector. In this sense it is necessary to identify the variables that represent the soccer (football) value chain systemically; to understand the interrelationships between these variables, the main difficulties derived from this interrelationship and to point out variables that require actions to increment the results of the soccer (football) value chain as a whole. Hence, this study applied a semi-structured questionnaire with open-ended questions about the problems and leveraging variables that exist in this sports modality. A causal linkage diagram was elaborated based on the answers to the interviews, showing the systemic structure of the soccer (football) value chain in Brazil, whose premise it is to identify the existing circularities and the possibly existing points of leverage. The systemic structure pointed to the economic participation of soccer (football) in the Gross Domestic Product as a central variable to be leveraged, which tends to synthetize the results of the joint action of the actors in this chain. Furthermore, the variables that may limit or amplify the growth were identified. The systemic structure showed that the soccer (football) commodity chain is complex because of the great number of variables and interrelationships needed to represent its dynamics. The relationship between the actors also proved to be a factor of impact on economic and social development.     

Strategies for the Study of Complex Socio-Economic Systems: an Approach Using Agent-Based Simulation

The present paper proposes a research strategy that integrates top-down and bottom-up approaches, aimed at the study of complex socio-economic systems. Through a theoretical analysis, it is demonstrated throughout the text a strategy that allows the articulation between agent-based simulation approaches and methods of deductive and phenomenological basis capable of providing social sciences with unprecedented accuracy due to ethical and methodological limitations imposed by the study object until then. This is because this type of hybrid approach allows the construction of a deep systemic articulation between the micro and the macro, as advocated by the General Theory of Systems, at the same time as it is supported by systematic experiments that give new light to the study of the socio-economic complexity.     

Reproductive biology of the endangered wattled curassow (Crax globulosa; Galliformes: Cracidae) in the Juruá River Basin,Western Brazilian Amazonia

The reproductive biology of Crax globulosa is virtually unknown, this knowledge comprised of only a few anecdotal notes. We found nine nests of Crax globulosa in the middle section of the Juruá River, western Brazilian Amazon, during the dry season. Nests averaged 22.5 m from water and 13.3 m above the ground. We observed two nest types: five made of twigs, leaves and vines, and four within a bromeliad. All nests contained two eggs, but six (67%) were subsequently predated. A female tagged with a transmitter nested twice during the same breeding season. A chick was monitored together with its parents for > 10 months. In addition to hunting and habitat loss, nest predation could be another threat to this endangered species.