Incubation time for AIDS from French transfusion-associated cases

Although incubation time is a key parameter of the epidemiology of AIDS, statistical estimates based on transfusion-associated AIDS cases have, up to now, used only the single dataset provided by the AIDS program of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta. Using a new dataset provided by the Direction Générale de la Santé (DGS), of the French Ministry of Health1, we estimate the mean incubation time for AIDS (median in brackets) to be 5.3 years (5.3 years) with a 90% confidence interval ranging from 4.4 to 8.9 years (4.4 to 8.8 years), when a Weibull distribution is postulated for incubation time. The previously encountered problem of very large confidence intervals (range larger than 100 years), is not observed, indicating that an accurate estimate for mean incubation time will be obtainable in the near future.     

Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

The threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus requires public health authorities to prepare for a human pandemic. Although pre-pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs might significantly reduce illness rates, their stockpiling is too expensive to be practical for many countries. Consequently, alternative control strategies, based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, are a potentially attractive policy option. School closure is the measure most often considered. The high social and economic costs of closing schools for months make it an expensive and therefore controversial policy, and the current absence of quantitative data on the role of schools during influenza epidemics means there is little consensus on the probable effectiveness of school closure in reducing the impact of a pandemic. Here, from the joint analysis of surveillance data and holiday timing in France, we quantify the role of schools in influenza epidemics and predict the effect of school closure during a pandemic. We show that holidays lead to a 20-29% reduction in the rate at which influenza is transmitted to children, but that they have no detectable effect on the contact patterns of adults. Holidays prevent 16-18% of seasonal influenza cases (18-21% in children). By extrapolation, we find that prolonged school closure during a pandemic might reduce the cumulative number of cases by 13-17% (18-23% in children) and peak attack rates by up to 39-45% (47-52% in children). The impact of school closure would be reduced if it proved difficult to maintain low contact rates among children for a prolonged period.     

Electrostatic trapping of ammonia molecules

The ability to cool and slow atoms with light for subsequent trapping allows investigations of the properties and interactions of the trapped atoms in unprecedented detail. By contrast, the complex structure of molecules prohibits this type of manipulation, but magnetic trapping of calcium hydride molecules thermalized in ultra-cold buffer gas and optical trapping of caesium dimers generated from ultra-cold caesium atoms have been reported. However, these methods depend on the target molecules being paramagnetic or able to form through the association of atoms amenable to laser cooling, respectively, thus restricting the range of species that can be studied. Here we describe the slowing of an adiabatically cooled beam of deuterated ammonia molecules by time-varying inhomogeneous electric fields and subsequent loading into an electrostatic trap. We are able to trap state-selected ammonia molecules with a density of 10(6) cm(-3) in a volume of 0.25 cm3 at temperatures below 0.35 K. We observe pronounced density oscillations caused by the rapid switching of the electric fields during loading of the trap. Our findings illustrate that polar molecules can be efficiently cooled and trapped, thus providing an opportunity to study collisions and collective quantum effects in a wide range of ultra-cold molecular systems.