Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complex reorganization and predominant non-homologous repair following chromosomal breakage in karyotypically balanced germline rearrangements and transgenic integration

We defined the genetic landscape of balanced chromosomal rearrangements at nucleotide resolution by sequencing 141 breakpoints from cytogenetically interpreted translocations and inversions. We confirm that the recently described phenomenon of 'chromothripsis' (massive chromosomal shattering and reorganization) is not unique to cancer cells but also occurs in the germline, where it can resolve to a relatively balanced state with frequent inversions. We detected a high incidence of complex rearrangements (19.2%) and substantially less reliance on microhomology (31%) than previously observed in benign copy-number variants (CNVs). We compared these results to experimentally generated DNA breakage-repair by sequencing seven transgenic animals, revealing extensive rearrangement of the transgene and host genome with similar complexity to human germline alterations. Inversion was the most common rearrangement, suggesting that a combined mechanism involving template switching and non-homologous repair mediates the formation of balanced complex rearrangements that are viable, stably replicated and transmitted unaltered to subsequent generations.     

Environmental attributes correlating with density of blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ) shurbs in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada

Discovery of distinct mid-elevational bands of blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima Torr.) shrublands on desert mountain slopes in the Mojave Desert caused an investigation of the relationships between environmental factors and Coleogyne distribution. Environmental factors were quantitatively examined to determine which were significant predictors of Coleogyne density at upper-elevational limits (ecotones) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada. Path analysis revealed significant, direct causal effects of air temperature, soil moisture, soil depth, and percent litter cover on the distribution of Coleogyne . Specifically, air temperature was a significant positive predictor, while soil moisture, soil depth, and percent litter cover were significant negative predictors of Coleogyne density, with the effects of other environmental variables parceled out. Path analysis also indicated that indirect effects of soil pH, bulk density, compaction, percent pore space, organic matter, soil temperature, salinity, cryptogam, and percent bare soil and rock cover on Coleogyne density were substantially more potent than their direct casual effects. Environmental attributes associated with elevational changes correlate with and may determine the density of Coleogyne shrubs at upper ecotones in southern Nevada.     

Biotic and abiotic factors influencing the distribution of Coleogyne communities in southern Nevada

Woody plant community composition was analyzed throughout the range of Coleogyne ramosissima in the Spring and Sheep Mountain ranges of southern Nevada. The lower Coleogyne elevational boundary was analyzed in detail in Lucky Strike Canyon, on the eastern edge of the Spring Mountains. TWINSPAN (2-way indicator species analysis) identified 4 primary species and stand groups from the 2 mountain ranges (extensive survey). Analysis of DECORANA (detrended correspondence analysis) results indicated that elevation and soil depth were the environmental factors most significantly associated with distribution of species and stand groups in the extensive survey. Elevation was the only significant physical factor associated with distribution of species and stand groups in the intensive survey. Five vegetation zones form the 2 mountain ranges were identified based on their dominant species in 15 extensive transects. Coleogyne were subdivided into pure stands and upper and lower ecotones for further investigation of species distribution and environmental factors. Selected environmental factors appear to play an important role in structuring the Mojave Desert vegetation zones in southern Nevada.     

Spatial dependence model with feature difference

This paper presents a new spatial dependence model with an adjustment of feature difference. The model accounts for the spatial autocorrelation in both the outcome variables and residuals. The feature difference adjustment in the model helps to emphasize feature changes across neighboring units, while suppressing unobserved covariates that are present in the same neighborhood. The prediction at a given unit incorporates components that depend on the differences between the values of its main features and those of its neighboring units. In contrast to conventional spatial regression models, our model does not require a comprehensive list of global covariates necessary to estimate the outcome variable at the unit, as common macro-level covariates are differenced away in the regression analysis. Using the real estate market data in Hong Kong, we applied Gibbs sampling to determine the posterior distribution of each model parameter. The result of our empirical analysis confirms that the adjustment of feature difference with an inclusion of the spatial error autocorrelation produces better out-of-sample prediction performance than other conventional spatial dependence models. In addition, our empirical analysis can identify components with more significant contributions.     

Small molecule activators of SIRT1 as therapeutics for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Calorie restriction extends lifespan and produces a metabolic profile desirable for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. SIRT1, an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, is a principal modulator of pathways downstream of calorie restriction that produce beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity. Resveratrol, a polyphenolic SIRT1 activator, mimics the anti-ageing effects of calorie restriction in lower organisms and in mice fed a high-fat diet ameliorates insulin resistance, increases mitochondrial content, and prolongs survival. Here we describe the identification and characterization of small molecule activators of SIRT1 that are structurally unrelated to, and 1,000-fold more potent than, resveratrol. These compounds bind to the SIRT1 enzyme-peptide substrate complex at an allosteric site amino-terminal to the catalytic domain and lower the Michaelis constant for acetylated substrates. In diet-induced obese and genetically obese mice, these compounds improve insulin sensitivity, lower plasma glucose, and increase mitochondrial capacity. In Zucker fa/fa rats, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies demonstrate that SIRT1 activators improve whole-body glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, skeletal muscle and liver. Thus, SIRT1 activation is a promising new therapeutic approach for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes.