On the development of the GRAPES——A new generation of the national operational NWP system in China

Numerical weather prediction （NWP） has become one of the most important means for weather forecasts in the world. It also mirrors a nation＇s comprehensive strength in meteorology. In 2000, China Meteorological Administration （CMA） established the National Innovative Base for Meteorological Numerical Prediction in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences （CAMS）, to work on developing a new generation of the national operational NWP system-Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System （GRAPES）, to enhance meteorological services in China in the new century. In recent years, the GRAPES has witnessed a fast development. The GRAPES has been set up as an integration of the model framework, data assimilation, regional and global NWP system, which can be commonly used for both operation and research. In this paper, a brief review is made for illustrating the GRAPES system, including the advanced designs of the GRAPES, its diverse applications in multi-fields, and efficiencies of the regional and global GRAPES in operational applications based on hindcast results.     

Arctic dipole anomaly and summer rainfall in Northeast China

A dipole structure anomaly in summer Arctic atmospheric variability is identified in this study, which is characterized by the second mode of empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of summer monthly mean sea level pressure （SLP） north of 70°N, accounting for 12.94% of the variance. The dipole anomaly shows a quasi-barotropic structure with opposite anomalous centers over the Canadian Arctic and the Beaufort Sea and between the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea. The dipole anomaly reflects alternating variations in location of the polar vortex between the western and eastern Arctic regions. The positive phase of the dipole anomaly corresponds to the center of the polar vortex over the western Arctic, leading to an increase in summer mean rainfall in Northeast China. The dipole anomaly has a predominant 6-year periodicity, and shows interdecadal variations in recent decades.     

Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship

Science Bulletin - In this study, the effect of the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) variation in inducing the circulation anomaly in the Indo-East Asian monsoon (IEAM)...     

Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon

The role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the seasonal and interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the analysis of observational data. It is shown that the ISO significantly contributes to the establishment of low-level westerlies during the monsoon onset and developing periods. The effect of the ISO on the annual cycle of the monsoon is through nonlinear eddy momentum transport. On the interannual timescale, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with the ISO intensity over the Indian monsoon region. In strong ISO years it appears the weak monsoon when there is an abnormal high over the India subcontinent in the lower troposphere. In weak ISO years there exists an abnormal low and the strong monsoon appears. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB403602), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40225012 and 40775039) and Chinese COPES Program (Grant No. GYHY200706005)     

Analyses on the air and snow temperatures near ground with observations of an AWS at Dome A, the summit of Antarctic Plateau

As the summit of the Antarctic Plateau, Dome A has been received international attentions.In this paper, observational data of an automatic weather station (AWS) at Dome A in 2005–2007 were used to analyze the seasonal variations of air temperatures near the ground and snow temperatures within a depth of 10 m. Analyses on the air temperatures show a typical feature of the coreless winter, and strong inversion maintains during the long winter. Accordingly the stratification near the ground is dominated by th...     

Interdecadal shift in the western North Pacific Summer SST anomaly in the late 1980s

An interdecadal shift in summer (June―August) sea surface temperature (SST) variations during the period of 1968―2002 was identified in the late 1980s, which is characterized by a phase alternating from negative to positive phases of the leading mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the summer monthly mean SST in the Pacific domain 100°―180°E and 0°―40°N, accounting for 30.5% of the total variance. During the period of 1968―1987, the leading mode with a mean negative phase state (mean standard deviation = ?0.586) controlled SST variability in the western North Pacific. Correspondingly, negative SST anomalies occupied the western North Pacific south of Japan and Chinese marginal seas. During the period of 1988―2002, the leading mode shifted to its strong positive polarity (mean standard deviation = 0.781), thus positive SST anomalies appeared in the western North Pacific. Accompanied by the interdecadal shift in summer mean SST, summer mean rainfall increased in southern and southeastern China during the late period, particularly in southeastern China where increase in summer mean rainfall exceeded 40 mm, at the 0.05 significance level.     

Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High

The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.     

The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China

The relation between the soil moisture in spring and the rainfall in summer in eastern China is investi- gated. Results show that the summer rainfall in eastern China is closely related to the spring soil moisture in the area from North China to the lower reaches of Yangtze River (NCYR). When spring soil moisture anomalies over NCYR are positive, the summer precipitation exhibits positive anomalies in Northeast China and the lower reaches of Yangtze River, and negative anomalies in southern China and North China. The higher soil moisture over NCYR cools land surface and reduces the land-sea tem- perature gradient, which weakens East Asian summer monsoon. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is located to the south and shifts westward, resulting in more rainfall in the lower reaches of Yangtze River and less in southern China and North China.