Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

Observation of robust edge superconductivity in Fe(Se,Te) under strong magnetic perturbation

The iron-chalcogenide high temperature superconductor Fe(Se,Te) (FST) has been reported to exhibit complex magnetic ordering and nontrivial band topology which ...     

细菌纤维素基材料的制备及其应用前景

细菌纤维素(BC)是一种由醋酸菌属合成的胞外多糖,由于其具有独特的性能,因此近些年来BC正日益受到产业界的热切关注.本文介绍了2种BC基材料(BC结构改性材料与BC复合材料)的制备,此外,还介绍了BC基材料在生物医学材料与吸附材料领域的潜在开发前景.     

关于F.Smarandache简单函数的均值

本文主要利用解析的方法研究了函数d(p(x))的均值性质,这里d(n)是Dirichlet除数函数,并给出了两个有趣的渐近公式.     

胰腺未分化多形性肉瘤临床病理观察

探讨伴有巨细胞的胰腺未分化多形性肉瘤临床病理特点;对1例伴有破骨样巨细胞的胰腺未分化多形性肉瘤进行临床病理分析,并对相关文献进行复习;该肿瘤以在未分化多形性肉瘤中出现破骨细胞样巨细胞为特点,该巨细胞的核大小、形态及着色较为一致,且形态温和,CD68+;未分化多形性肉瘤中单核或多核肉瘤细胞vimentin+、CKP-、EMA-、CKL-、S-100-、αACT-、CEA-、Desmin-、Actin-和HMB45-;发生于胰腺的伴有巨细胞的未分化多形性肉瘤非常罕见,肿瘤标记物在其诊断和鉴别诊断中起重要作用。     

A Transport Protocol and Its Formal Description for Local Networks

ＡＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔＰｒｏｔｏｃｏｌａｎｄＩｔｓＦｏｒｍａｌＤｅｓｃｒｉｐｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＬｏｃａｌＮｅｔｗｏｒｋｓＬｉＬａｙｕａｎＷｕｈａｎＴｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ,４３００６３,Ｐ．Ｒ．Ｃｈｉｎａ（ＲｅｃｅｉｖｅｄＭａｙ４...