Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length. Models of earthquake-induced stress change combined with active fault maps had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.     

Indonesian earthquake: earthquake risk from co-seismic stress

Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributions of co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike-slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.     

Seismology: earthquake risk on the Sunda trench

On 28 March 2005 the Sunda megathrust in Indonesia ruptured again, producing another great earthquake three months after the previous one. The rupture was contiguous with that of the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, and is likely to have been sparked by local stress, although the triggering stresses at its hypocentre were very small - of the order of just 0.1 bar. Calculations show that stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure the megathrust immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands, and have expanded the area of increased stress on the Sumatra fault. Palaeoseismologic studies show that the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust is well advanced in its seismic cycle and is therefore a good candidate for triggered failure.