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The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula. 相似文献
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Magnetic carbon 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
Makarova TL Sundqvist B Höhne R Esquinazi P Kopelevich Y Scharff P Davydov VA Kashevarova LS Rakhmanina AV 《Nature》2001,413(6857):716-718
The discovery of nanostructured forms of molecular carbon has led to renewed interest in the varied properties of this element. Both graphite and C60 can be electron-doped by alkali metals to become superconducting; transition temperatures of up to 52 K have been attained by field-induced hole-doping of C60 (ref. 2). Recent experiments and theoretical studies have suggested that electronic instabilities in pure graphite may give rise to superconducting and ferromagnetic properties, even at room temperature. Here we report the serendipitous discovery of strong magnetic signals in rhombohedral C60. Our intention was to search for superconductivity in polymerized C60; however, it appears that our high-pressure, high-temperature polymerization process results in a magnetically ordered state. The material exhibits features typical of ferromagnets: saturation magnetization, large hysteresis and attachment to a magnet at room temperature. The temperature dependences of the saturation and remanent magnetization indicate a Curie temperature near 500 K. 相似文献
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